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16. Figurer
117
16. Figurer
Figur 3.6.1: Studiets struktur... 7
Figur 6.2.1: Værdiskabelse for aktionærerne i det opkøbende selskab ... 13
Figur 9.3.1: Observationer fodelt på år ... 39
Figur 10.1.1: Forklaringskraft af det overnormale afkast ... 43
Figur 10.2.1: Evenstudiets opbygning ... 44
Figur 10.6.1: Observationer fordelt på måneder ... 55
Figur 11.1.1: AAR-Markedsjusteret model ... 64
Figur 11.1.2: AAR-Markedsmodellen ... 65
Figur 11.1.3: AAR Markedsjusteret vs. Markedsmodellen ... 66
Figur 11.2.1: AAR akk. For betalingsmetoder ... 71
Figur 11.3.1: AAR akk. for target status ... 75
Figur 11.6.1: AAR akk. Relativ størrelse ... 89
Figur 11.6.2: CAAR for relativ størrelse ... 91
Figur 13.2.1: Forklaringsgrad af værdiskabelsen ... 105
17. Tabeller
Tabel 6.2.1: Korrelationskoefficient mellem M&A aktivitet og aktiemarkedet ... 19Tabel 7.1.1: Studier af overnormalt afkast ... 24
Tabel 7.2.1: Studier af betalingsmetode ... 26
Tabel 7.3.1: Studier af target status... 29
Tabel 7.4.1: Studier af virksomhedernes størrelse ... 31
Tabel 9.1.1: Kriterier ved data fra Zeohyrdatabasen... 36
Tabel 9.2.1: Yderligere kriterier ved sortering af data ... 37
Tabel 9.3.1: Observationernes karakteristika ... 41
Tabel 10.5.1: Betegnelser benyttet i metodeafsnittet ... 50
Tabel 11.1.1: Markedsjusteret model overnormalt afkast ... 62
Tabel 11.1.2: AAR-Markedsjusteret model ... 63
Tabel 11.1.3: Markedsmodellen overnormal afkast ... 64
Tabel 11.1.4: AAR-Markedsmodellen ... 65
Tabel 11.1.5: Sammenligning med øvrige studer – Overnormalt afkast ... 68
Tabel 11.2.1: CAAR for betalingsmetoder ... 70
Tabel 11.2.2: Two-sample test for betalingsmetoder ... 72
Tabel 11.2.3: Sammenligning med øvrige studier - Betalingsmetoder ... 73
Tabel 11.3.1: CAAR for target status ... 74
Tabel 11.3.2: Two-sample test for target status ... 75
Tabel 11.3.3: Sammenligning med øvrige studier – Target status ... 77
Tabel 11.4.1: CAAR for target status med betalingsmetode ... 79
Tabel 11.4.2: Two-sample test for status med betalingsmetode ... 80
Tabel 11.4.3: Sammenligning med øvrige studier – Target status med betalingsmetode ... 81
Tabel 11.5.1: CAAR for køberens størrelse ... 83
Tabel 11.5.2: Two-sample test for køberens størrelse ... 84
Tabel 11.5.3: Sammenligning med øvrige studier – Køberens størrelse ... 85
Tabel 11.6.1: CAAR for relativ størrelse ... 88
Tabel 11.6.2: Two-sample test for relativ størrelse... 90
Tabel 11.6.3: Sammenligning med øvrige studier – Relativ størrelse ... 92
Tabel 11.7.1: Korrelationsmatrix ... 97
17. Tabeller
118
Tabel 11.7.2: Gennemsnitlig relativ størrelse for opkøberens størrelsesgrupper ... 98
Tabel 11.7.3: CAAR for gruppering af relativ størrelse og gruppering af køberens størrelse ... 98
Tabel 12.2.1: Multipel regressionsanalyse ... 100
Tabel 13.2.1: Opgavens resultater og acceptgrad for teoretiske implikationer ... 107
18. Bilag
119
18. Bilag
18.1.1 Bilag 1
Kilde: Pitchbook Europe, (Mondesir og Patel 2020).
https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/PitchBook_2019_Annual_European_MA_Report.pdf
18.1.2 Bilag 2
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for Hele datasættet:
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for Børsnoteret targets:
18. Bilag
120 Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for Private targets:
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for Aktier:
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for Mix:
18. Bilag
121 Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for Kontant:
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for MktCap1:
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for MktCap2:
18. Bilag
122 Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for MktCap3:
Histogram CAAR(-1,1) for MktCap4:
18.1.3 Bilag 3
18. Bilag
123 Linearitet:
I figuren ses residualer vs. Fitted værdier, og det ses at residualplottet ikke har noget mønster i fordelingen af residualer. Derudover ses det at den røde linje ligger linært omkring 0 hvilket indikere at modellen følger en lineær trend. Der ses dog en observation som ligger til højre, men da den ligger omkring + forventes det ikke at påvirke modellen.
Antagelsen omkring linearitet syntes derfor opfyldt i rimelig grad.
Heteroskedasticitet:
i figuren ses standardiseret residualer mod fitted værdier. Det ses at residualerne har en svag stigning hvilket indikere variansen ikke er homogen i datasættet. Konsekvensen af dette er at p-værdierne er usikre da der vil være en forskel i fejlleddene afhængigt af hvilket niveau af variablene man tager i betragtning (Stubager og Sønderskov 2011). Dog er det ikke en markant stigning som forventes at have betydelig betydning for resultaterne. Vi er dog klar over fordelingen og tager højde for det i analysen.
Normaltfordelte fejlled:
I figueren ses et Normal-Q-Q diagram som viser fordelingen af fejlled. Det ses at de ikke helt følger en normalfordeling da værdierne er mere ekstreme i halerne af fordelingen. Dette indikere at kurtosis er højere end ved en normalfordeling. Det ses ikke at der er en markant skævhed i datasættet da begge haler overskider den lineære linje. Denne antagelse er dog jf. Sturbager og Sønderskov (2011) dog kun strængt nødvendig for små datasæt hvorfor vi ikke vil gøre mere ved dette, da dette datasæt er
18. Bilag
124 forholdsvist stort.
Autokorrelation:
Til test for autokorrelation benyttes Durbin Watson test. Det ses at værdier omkring 2 ikke lider af autokorrelation. Det ses derved at der ikke forkommer betydelig autokorrelation i datasættet.
Det ses derved at der ikke forekommer autokorrelation.
Durbin watson test:
D = 1,8791
Multikollinearitet:
For at teste for multikollinaritet benyttes et kovariansmatrix for at undersøge om der forekommer korrelation mellem variablene da dette
ville ska
18.1.4 Bilag 4
Alle observationer
18. Bilag
125 Durbin watson test: D = 1,8791
18. Bilag
126 Børsnoteret
Durbin-watson test: D = 1,7109
Privat
18. Bilag
127 Durbin-watson test: D = 1,865
18. Bilag
128 Aktier
Durbin-watson test: D = 2,008
Mix
18. Bilag
129 Durbin-watson test: D = 2,1907