Framework for Railway Phase-based Planning
Rui Li, ruli@transport.dtu.dk DTU Transport
August 27th, 2013
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Agenda
• Introduction
o Track Behavior
• Life Cycle Cost
• Phase-based Planning Framework
• Policy Discussion and Case Study
• Conclusions
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Introduction - Background
•Performance
o Better Punctuality o More trains per hours o Longer operation hours
•Reliability
•Budget pressures
•Operational restrictions
How to improve the cost efficiency of railway infrastructure projects?
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Introduction - Track Behavior
𝑄 = 𝑄0 ∗ e−b∗t - Q0 denotes the initial track quality
- b is the rate of deterioration over time t.
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Life Cycle Costs approach
Reducing maintenance cost without reducing maintenance itself !
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Why Life Cycle Costs – An Example
Interest Rate 0%
Gross Maintenance cost 1.500 DKK/meter Initial Investment 4.500 DKK/meter
Maintenance every 8 years Sum 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Track Installation 1,0 1
Maintenance 11,0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Annuity 609
Maintenance every 5 years Sum 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Track Installation 1,0 1
Maintenance 7,0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NPV 15.000
Annuity 469
130%
Achievements from the both sides?
• Higher quality Track
• Cheaper LCC (10%)
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The Limitation of the Existing LCC Approach
• Planned Costs
• Unplanned Costs – Repairs
– Track availibility
• Passenger Loss
• Train Operators Costs – Train-Buses
– Announcements – Rolling Stock
Maintenance
• Riding Comforts – Vibration – Noise – Accidents
• Pollutions
LCC %
Direct Costs 130%
+ Train penality 166%
+ Interates rate 3% 132%
+ Passenger Loss 142%
+ Working possessions + Train operators + Environment Impacts
... ...
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Life Cycle Cost Scope
• A Larger LCC Scope
• Different Cost Types
• Planning is complex and time comsuming
A planning framework is needed!
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A Phase-based Planning Framework
Why phase-based?
• Input General Profiles
• Estimating Traffic
• Planning Maintenance and Renewals
• Possession Time Estimating
• Estimating the Failure Penalty
• Estimating the costs for Train Operators and Passengers
• Output the Overview of the Life Cycle Cost Annuity
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Framework Outputs
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Case Study - Policy Discussion 1
High Quality Track
- High Construction Cost - Maintenance every 5 years
Low Quality Track
- Low Construction Costs - Maintain it every 3 years
VS.
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High Quality Track vs. Low Quality Track
Initial Quality Low High
Initial Investment (DKK/T-meter) 3.500 4.500 Track Installation 1 1 Maintenance 6 7 Life Time 21 32
Maintenance every 3 years 5 years
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High Quality Track vs. Low Quality Track
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Case Study - Policy Discussion 2
Positive renew
- Renew the track system when it reached threshold
Standard renew
- Maintenance the track when it reached threshold
VS.
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Postive Renewal vs. Standard Renewal
Interest Rate 0%
Gross Maintenance cost 500DKK/meter Average delay minutes per train minutes5 Average Cancallation factor 15minutes DKK per delayed train-hour 5.000DKK DKK Per cancelled train-hour 100.000DKK Line Length 5.000meter
Double Track yes
Initial Investment 6.000DKK/meter 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0
A: Life Time 25 years B: Life Time 28 years C: Life Time 32 years D: Life Time 35 years
Life Span (years) 25 28 32 35
Maintenance Amount 4 5 7 10
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Case Study
Concrete Sleepers Timber Sleepers
• Long Service Life
• Less Maintenance
• Higher axle-load
• Cheap
• Less heavy
• Absorb forces
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Case Study - Assumptions
Items Concrete Timber
Service Life (years) 35 25
Price (per track-meter) 4.500 4.000
Tamping every 5 years 3 years
Life Time (without maintenance) 12 9
-30,0 -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 -
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Track Behavior and Life Time
Threhold Timber Concrete
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Case Study - Life Cycle Cost Overview
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Conclusions
• Life Cycle Cost Approach can improve cost efficient
• A larger scope of Life Cycle Cost gives a better cost picture
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