• Ingen resultater fundet

6. Discussion 77

6.8. Learning Reflections

Since this was the first project working with real-life data for the both of us, we have made great new experiences on which we will reflect in this section. Compared to projects and assignments in our courses, where data sets usually are already preprocessed and suitable for the use of various machine learning models, the data that we have been provided with for this project was originally not designed for a data-driven approach. It was hard to estimate the workload of the data preparation and preprocessing, which we underestimated several times within this project. In the end, around 80% of the time that we spent on coding went into this step. Furthermore, we had to learn to make logical assumptions, for example to fill missing data points.

However, we have also gained new competencies. Theoretical concepts and models that we have studied in our courses in previous semesters have now been useful to determine our research goals and we could apply them in practice. Thereby, both of us have significantly improved our coding skills and increased the practical experience of working on data analytics.

We have also mastered organizational challenges given the fact that various stakeholders with different interests have been involved in the project.

In this thesis we exploredhow artificial intelligence and machine learning as data-driven technologies can improve the process of road maintenance towards data-driven decision making. To answer the research question comprehensively, we combined road maintenance data from three incompatible systems from our case study, the City of Copenhagen, and explored different possibilities to apply machine learning models on it. Furthermore, we explored the topic from a theoretical angle through a literature and case study analysis.

With the help of various visualizations we shared first insights into the data that have not existed in such a form previously. Furthermore, we created a pavement condition index (PCI) to compare the conditions across different roads and assigned all road segments a score between 0 and 100. We then applied a linear regression and XGBoost model on the data to predict above-named PCI, where our best model, an XGBoost model with optimized hyperparameters, reached an adjustedR2score of 0.9011 with an RMSE of 11.74. Both models have the ability to reveal the importance of the different input features, which led us conclude that the damages alligator cracks, large cracks and rutting have the biggest influence on road deterioration.

In the second part of our analysis, we predict acute damages in the form of potholes one year ahead for each road segment. The received scores show that including all available data does improve the performance of the predictions compared to our baseline by 30%. However, with an adjusted R2 score of 0.3977 for our best model, the well-appearing RMSE score of 1.32 can be misleading and should not be put into production in its current maturity degree.

The theoretical part of our thesis focused on exploring different technologies that serve as an inspiration to improve the future road maintenance process for the City of Copenhagen.

Based on our findings, we created two scenarios with technologies that are either already

in large-scale use in other regions or deliver - according to the academic literature - highly accurate and cost-effective results.

The successful use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to optimize the process of road maintenance has been proven both in theory and practice. Current road maintenance processes at the City of Copenhagen would benefit extremely from those technologies in regard to better quality and overview of assessments, as well as an improved allocation of available budgets. At the present time, the available systems and the data that they contain about road assessments are not designed to be used for predictive maintenance activities, which makes such data analysis laborious and inaccurate. We combined all our insights gathered during the process to identify five recommendations for the City of Copenhagen.

All of the recommendation include a data-centric perspective to help the municipality to move towards data-driven decision making for predictive road maintenance. Furthermore, we outline future work and potential deliverables from a practical and research approach.

In this master thesis we contributed to the research of data-driven decision-making for predictive road maintenance in two points. First, we proposed a new approach to create a pavement condition index (PCI) based on the estimated remaining lifetime of a road. Secondly, we came up with a proposal for future data collection, of which requirements need to be met in order to use road maintenance data for predictions and towards data-driven decision making.

We conclude that the current state of data maturity at the City of Copenhagen needs to improve to effectively leverage data-driven technologies for the process of road maintenance.

However, we showed the potential which can be further exploited in future work.

2.1. Example of a linear regression . . . 14 2.2. Example of a decision tree . . . 15 3.1. Overview of Systems and Stakeholders handling Road Maintenance at the TMF 22 4.1. Saunders Research Onion . . . 32 4.2. CRISP-DM Lifecycle . . . 34 4.3. Example filling missing values . . . 40 4.4. Example adding "construktionsname" . . . 41 4.5. Mapping PUMA task to RoSy Road Segment . . . 46 4.6. Time Span of utilized data for Acute Damage Prediction . . . 48 5.1. All streets that are included in the RoSy data set . . . 55 5.2. Pothole tasks from PUMA data set . . . 55 5.3. Reported potholes from Giv et praj data set . . . 56 5.4. Potholes from PUMA and Giv et praj . . . 56 5.5. Data exploration overview after preprocessing . . . 57 5.6. Descriptive values of all normalized damages from RoSy . . . 58 5.7. PCI of all data entries of the road segmentAmagerbrogade-6-L0over years with

changing values ofFromChainageandToChainage . . . 59 5.8. Overview about road conditions by means of PCI . . . 60 5.9. True Values vs. Predictions (PCI Predictions) . . . 62 5.10. Residual Distribution (PCI Predictions) . . . 62 5.11. Feature Importance Linear Regression . . . 63 5.12. Feature Importance XGBoost (Baseline) . . . 64

5.13. Feature Importance XGBoost (Optimized) . . . 65 5.14. True Values vs. Predictions (Time Series Prediction) . . . 66 5.15. Residual Distribution (Time Series Prediction) . . . 66 6.1. Exemplary Dashboard . . . 89

3.1. Types of road damages . . . 25 3.2. Damage limits that reduce RSL . . . 26 4.1. Academic literature search used keywords and results . . . 52 4.2. Case Study search keywords and results . . . 52 5.1. Results of PCI Predictions . . . 61 5.2. Results of Acute Damage Predictions . . . 65 5.3. Overview of identified procedures for automated assessments of road quality 68

AI Artifical Intelligence. 11 EY Ernst & Young. 3, 52

FWD Falling Weight Deflectometer. 8, 9, 71 GPR Ground Penetration Radar. 9, 71, 72

HWD Heavy Falling Weight Deflectometer. 9, 71, 72

ICT Information and Communication Technology. 1, 6 IoT Internet of Things. 1

IRI International Roughness Index. 8, 79 ML Machine Learning. 11

PCI Pavement Condition Index. 2, 8, 54, 91 PMS Pavement Management System. 8, 9, 22 PSI Present Serviceability Index. 8

PSR Present Serviceability Ratio. 8

PUMA Platform til Understøttelse af Mobile Arbejdsgange. 23, 36, 39 RoSy RoSy cRoad Asset Management System. 22, 36, 38

RSL Remaining Service Life. 8, 72 RSME Root Mean Squared Error. 18

TMF Teknik- og Miljøforvaltningen (Technical and Environmental Management). 21, 36, 52

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A.1. Images of Road Damage Types

Down below are presented exemplary images of each road damage type that was described in 3.1.3. All images are obtained from [43] if not stated otherwise.

Small cracks

Large cracks

Alligator cracks

Settlements

Image obtained from [42].

Rutting

Image obtained from [42].

Raveling

Image obtained from [42].

Chip loss

Image obtained from [42].

Stripping/ Peeling

Potholes

Images obtained from [42].

Emergency reparations

Image obtained from [42].

Patches

A.2. Raw Data Examples

Down below are exemplary extracts of each data source that was used in the thesis.

Current Condition (Part 1/2)

Current Condition (Part 2/2)

History Damages (Part 1/2)

History Damages (Part 2/2)

Traffic Data

Pavement Data

RoSy Longlist

Product Lifetime and Prices (Part 1/2)

Product Lifetime and Prices (Part 2/2)

PUMA Dataset

PUMA tasks and Number of Records