Interlinking the trend sphere

74 individual, the selection criteria for the megatrends required that each trend affected several layers of Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs. Hereby, each of the megatrends had to affect human beings not only on the basic levels of needs, but all the way up to the self-actualization needs. Although each megatrend had to touch upon all layers, they also appealed to one category of need in particular.

The Health megatrend appealed to the basic needs for physiological necessities and safety, however, the trend also transcends into the belonging-, esteems and self-actualization needs.

Seeing as health also includes mental health, the need for love and belonging are satisfied through a healthy lifestyle. Since all-round health is key to achieving more, the Health megatrend also affects this level of need, and lastly, as the innovations and manifestations of the trend advocate greater self-possession and responsibility, it contributes to self-actualization. Such examples can be made for all three cases; although Community mainly refers to the need for security and belonging, it also provides food and water, as sustainable innovations within this particular trend aim to extend the stores of natural resources. Even though Convenience mainly applies to the levels of achievement and self-actualization, convenient solution also provides time for family and friendship.

The point of these facts being that each trend is connected to the other, not only through the manifestations and global shifts, but also through the basic necessities in society. Such a realization gives way to thinking that trends are not alien or detached from society; they are embedded in the very spirit of it.

75 As it has been illustrated so far, the trend diffusion process is linked through acceptance, realization, entrepreneurship, innovation, motivation, consumer needs and -desires. However, the next question concerns how the whole universe of trends is interlinked; affecting and affected by each other. The model below will help to illustrate this interlinkage.

The model is specifically constructed for this particular use, however, it can be expanded or reduced in accordance with the number of megatrends one wishes to include in the comparison.

It is structured so that each point of the triangle represents a megatrend. The triangle itself represents the innovation possibilities which exist as a foundation, touching upon each megatrend, with consumer as the central aspects and with the global factors influencing them.

The arrows that connect the megatrends, along with the green boxes showing the specific global

Convenience

Individual Consumer

Knowledge

Figure 8: Trend Universe Interconnectivity Model

76 factors, describe the connection between these specific megatrends. The lines that pass through the triangle show that one global factor may also be present in the connection between a different couple of megatrends. For example, the environment and demographic changes are both effective in relation between Community and Convenience, as well as between Convenience and Health. Such relations are based on the factors that initially shape the megatrends. The environment connects Convenience and Health, as it affects how convenient innovations follow sustainable processes in order to improve the health of citizens. The environment is also an important global factor in the relationship between Community and Convenience, as there is a lesser strain on society when consumers collaborate to solve problems in the environment efficiently. Such relations count for all connecting lines in the model. The circle indicates the consumer or the individual. It is situated in the middle of the model as it signifies that the heart of the entire process is the individual or the consumer. The trend diffusion process is dependent on the collaboration and acceptance of consumers, wherefore they become central and indispensable. Furthermore, the dual-arrow connecting consumers and individuals to the specific megatrend also signify that it is a two-way influence; consumers are instrumental in influencing the megatrends, however, megatrends also help influence or shape the way people act, feel, think and consume. The last element of the model signifies the three factors that influence the innovation process; technology, motivation and knowledge. Albeit, it can be argued that technology could fall under the category of knowledge, I choose to use them separately, as knowledge in this instance signifies what use individuals and groups can makes of it; meaning, their ability to shape knowledge into innovation. Technology is a tool central to the 21^st century, which they may employ in the service of creating, communicating and executing innovation.

Lastly, motivation is also essential to the process, as there would be no incentive or background to start the innovation process without sufficient motivation to do so. The model is to be used in order to gain a better understanding and grasp of the overall universe of trends; how trends and actors in the process interact, how they evolve and how they affect. The specific use of it, for the purpose of this thesis, is to illustrate the outer and inner links between a megatrend and all the way through the diffusion process to the final manifestations. It is also a tool to understand that any trend starts in the basic social makeup and needs to be seen both separately as well as a being a part of the same foundation: the spirit of the times.

77 The spirit of the times is an indication of how society is built and functions at a specific point in time. There are general factors which affect the spirit, however, it is important to bear in mind that any of these factors can shift slightly at any point in time, thus creating a new ripple. An example of such could be that convenient solutions result in laziness rather than desire to spend quality time. If such a thing should happen, the social structure and spirit would no longer be the same, seeing as the fundamental human attitude towards manual or mental labor would have changed. These shifts make megatrends and subsequent trends very hard to control.

Convenience, Community and Health can just as easily be shifted towards negative trends which cause disruption and creates new challenges for society. If the new data storage systems within healthcare malfunctions repeatedly, the disruption it causes could affect citizens so much so that mistrust spreads or fatality rates increase. Those are worst case scenarios, but such scenarios must be calculated into the trend diffusion, as it could entirely obliterate the trend itself. Community could also suffer if security is breached, which subsequently would make society paranoid, and subsequently this paranoia would have strong effects on the ability of individuals to interact. If the members of an online service-providing community do not take their responsibility seriously, when they offer a service, acting as a groups of individuals with no regards to their fellow community members, this microtrend would then fade into nothing, buried by growing mistrust in fellow human beings. Clearly, the trend universe is subjective to all manners of influences, which cannot all be controlled, wherefore, the best way to preempt possible trend disruption is by understanding the two opposite ends of the trend diffusion process – the foundation and the consumer.