6. Case 2 – Community
6.2. Community as Sharing Consumption
51 that the entire structure, down to the smallest material for built and isolation, will be made efficient and as sustainable as possible (2012).
These features are connected to the Community megatrend, as they signify how a community will function in the future, as well as illustrating how society will have to change in order to encompass these changes. In terms of the meaning behind the megatrend, the sharing aspect of such a thing as one’s home is also an issue that could have required some getting used to on the part of consumers (Post, 2014). As societies become more and more individualistic, it seems that the community simultaneously has become more and more willing to share and assist one another. If this is truly the case, it is significant to the hypothesis as it denotes a basic shift in human thought processes; and as my definition of megatrends state on page 4, the very nature of megatrend lies in the overarching cultural shifts in society, and the very links between them are cultural actions that stem from these shifts. The mental shift in consumers is giving grounds for innovative solutions to global challenges. An example of how the Community trend has given rise to new sustainable housing solutions is Baugruppen, a German model for sustainable and affordable housing (Cowi A/S, 2009; Johnson, 2014). This is also an example of the increasing degree of peer-to-peer collaborations which signifies a wish to omit the intermediary functions, such as developers, in order to have complete transparency in and control over the process. This trend in consumer behavior is visible, not only in housing, but in many areas of production and consumption. As I will elaborate on later, the lack of trust in authorities and organization has led to a desire for active participation in the production processes; once again a sign of the need for value, rather than volume. In terms of Baugruppen, the example illustrates that citizens nowadays are willing to seek alternative housing solution that oftentimes will include the sharing of expenses and, to some extent, living spaces.
52 the next generations who grew up during the millennial recession to rethink their mass-consumerist behavior. Earley (n.d.) quotes the Future Foundation in stating that many consumers pursue greater transparency and value, as well as desiring a greater level of control over their consumption. Even though many seek greater transparency, there is a concurrent tendency to seek experiences and performances rather than possession (Morgan, 2015). This is explained by linking it to generational cohorts, stating that the millennial generation in particular have an affinity towards cost-consciousness and a greater focus on quality rather than quantity (2015).
6.2.1. The result of mass consumption
On the macro level of the trend diffusion process it is noteworthy to mention that, judging from the findings of the archival research on the subject matter, mass consumption and production have been root causes for the emergence of the Community trend. Furthermore, the younger generations have increasing interest in value over volume (Chahal, 2016). Environmental challenges such as increased carbon emission and consumption of raw materials have led to alternative and sustainable solutions. According to the TNO Report on megatrends (2010, p. 62), sustainable solutions include: “(…) the search for more efficient production methods, the utilization of alternative materials (…), renewable energy sources, recycling, conservation, the long-term availability of clean water, clean air and safe food as well as concepts for improving living conditions and quality of life”. Such aspects were explained in the Community as Home section above, however, some aspect bare repeating when Community is seen as sharing Consumption.
6.2.2. Consumption challenges
On a macro level, the need for change in order to preserve the planet has resulted in many industries and communities attempting to find alternative ways to sustain modern day living.
Once again, this refers to the Spirit of the Times, or the Zeitgeist. As in the case of the Health megatrend, the spirit of the times is a reflection of the conceptual and cultural tendencies of a particular time in history (Brannon, 2006), and in this case, the Zeitgeist encompasses the struggles faced by society in the light of mass consumerism and an increasing world population.
53 In terms of how mass consumerism has shaped the present Zeitgeist, these environmental issues help shape this and the next generation of consumers. As technology and networks make it impossible not to notice the issues faced by society, these current generations start to acknowledge the need for change. As concluded in the first section of the analysis, realizing the need for change is the first step in the creation of a megatrend.
When defining a megatrend as a long-term shift in society, affecting and affected by consumers and the zeitgeist, it bares notice that such a megatrend as Community refers to the actions of the world population of consumers which have brought on the changes and challenges. As argued by Katharine Earley (n.d.), we as consumers have over-consumed, hereby depleting material resources and putting a strain on the environment by adding to pollution, wastefulness and carbon emissions. One may therefore conclude that the actions of mankind have led to the current challenges and resulting need for change, wherefore it falls upon us to rectify our mistakes.
6.2.3. Transparency and value
The needs that derives from these challenges, apart from the general overarching need for change, are dependent on the situation and social group in question. A general belief is that the depletion of natural resources has deteriorated so fast due to the lack of transparency, and hereby trust, in society (Extend Limits, 2016b). The lack of trust in society encompasses not only governments but also organizations, institutions, industries and individuals. As the dawning realization of the state of the environment settles on populations worldwide, a large percentage of these populations start to question the motives and production methods, growing increasingly paranoid of what is hidden from them (Smith, 2012; Flynn, 2011; The Financial Brand, 2012).
This has developed a need for trust, which in turn can only be realized by transparency (Vecchio, Thompson & Galindo, 2010). Connecting this to the theory of generational cohorts, it can then be argued that this need for information and transparency stems from generational characteristic.
As shown in figure X the various generations have their particular characteristics. The generations that I will mainly be referring to are generation X and Y. Sarwant Singh (2012, p. 92-93) from the Frost & Sullivan group claim that: “Gen Y and Gen Z will be two of the most defining and
54 important generations of the next two decades, globally.”. He characterizes them as adaptive to change, willing to experiment with new technologies and products and with preferences for on-demand knowledge, products and services (2012). Singh elaborates on the generations in question by referring to two customer studies conducted by Frost & Sullivan. According to these studies, Gen Y and Gen Z tend to be more open minded and are very socially conscious. “(…) sharing, giving and participating in non-profits are important to them. Sustainability and environment are also important to them” (Singh, 2012, p. 95).
In the generational cohort overview (fig.
5), the Y generation is identified as a cohort
dependent on
technology for communication, though still very participatory and interactive. They see the work as fulfilling, they seek a higher purpose in their actions, and they have
a thirst for knowledge and are eager to innovate and reach their goals. These traits all match Singh’s characteristics of the generation in question, however, the connection to community and the current financial and environmental world situation is yet unclear.
These characteristics: self-fulfillment, purpose, technology communication, participation and on-demand needs may provide partial reasoning and background for the innovations that derive from the Community megatrend. On-demand services such as Spotify and Netflix, ensure that consumption is limited by total access to an entertainment database. Instead of having to
Figure 5: Generational Cohorts (Schweyer, 2015)
55 purchase each number or movie, it is now possible to simply use technology to provide an ‘all you can eat’ buffet of entertainment. This reflects several of the characteristics of Gen Y. For example, the need for a greater purpose is satisfied, since streaming services eliminates wastefulness and overconsumption. Furthermore, using programs such as Deezer and Spotify also provide opportunities to connect with fellow peers, as well as staying informed of their interests and behaviors through features such as ‘Friend activity’ and ‘Follow’ (Spotify, n.d.).
Other examples of services that symbolize community include the peer-to-peer accommodation sites, such as Airbnb, Flipkey and Homeaway, which all provide private shelter. Primarily used for vacation purposes, these online communities create a trading platform where you can find a place to stay with short notice and with more personality and home feeling than generic hotels would provide. In terms of the Gen Y & Z connection, these services symbolize their entrepreneurial side, as each person is in charge of their own business. Offering to open up your home to strangers means that, first, you trust them to be respectable guests, second, you are in charge of the service you offer your peers. These two points represent a certain level of entrepreneurship; to find consumer potential where it was not before. Apart from that, other connections between the trend and Gen Y includes social tolerance (figure 5), on-demand need and collaborative nature.
Connecting the points above to the hypothesis, the links between the various stages of trends are in this instance found in the interaction between individual consumers. The megatrend, Community, is spread through society through the spirit of the times; a spirit that reflect the dominating generations and its way of thinking. The essence of the times is reflected in the general disposition of the consumers and participants of that society. As an answer to the challenges on the macro level, meaning the challenges faced by society that shape the Community megatrend, consumers find ways of efficiently solving the various challenges that affect them. A problem that has an overarching effect on society will eventually translate into needs and desires on micro- and consumer levels. The mass consumption that has caused severe strain on the environment has resulted in consumers seeking ways to satisfy needs (for entertainment, travel or transport) through peer-to-peer collaborations. This microtrend was further enforced due to the lack of trust in authority; a topic that has been analyzed in the sections above and will be analyzed again below.
56 6.2.4. Introducing Mass Connectivity
Another important aspect of Community is the use of technology. TrendOne (2016) states that:
“No communication tool has connected people around the world as powerfully as the Internet”.
The agency further illustrates the effects of the Connected World by stating that the Internet, which is inextricably linked to technology, has introduced the Prosumer, as well as Networking, Crowdsourcing and Crowdfunding (2016). Albeit each individual plays a key role as a consumer, an increasing attention is placed on the individual’s role in the industries. Connectivity, as a general concept, can be peer-to-peer, peer-to-business, business-to-business and all the way up to governmental levels. It has evolved from face-to-face interaction to online fora by the introduction of the Internet, and by the use of technology in general. As concluded by TrendOne the connectivity in online social interaction: “(…) combines individual contributions with community-based actions and experiences.” (TrendOne, 2016). Such interactions link the consumer with the industry and governments, as well as linking them with each other. These links are also signs of the connections between the various layers of trends. The internet, hereunder the various online platforms for personal and professional social interaction, is no longer merely a means for the pleasantries of social interaction; it is a tool for complete connectivity (Singh, 2012).
On the macro level of society, Governments and other official capacities use the modes of mass connectivity to connect for example the health care sector in order to make it more efficient. On the micro levels, mass connectivity creates a connection between consumers and businesses.
These connections will be analyzed in the next section of the analysis on Shared Ideas and Opinions. In this section on Shared consumption, mass connectivity has a huge impact on how and why consumption happens. In the last century, consumption necessitated leaving one’s home in order to purchase what was needed or desired. In this century, technology has made it possible to purchase ‘by the click of a button’ (Business, 2016). As mass-consumerism declines, replaced by mass-customization and value-based consumption patterns, consumer prefer to be actively engaged in their community as well as in their personal lives (Deloitte, 2014). When value replaces volume, the motives of consumption shift from possession to experience. As expert Rachel
57 Botsman explains, we are experiencing a significant value shift, where consumers wish to reconnect with products in a more meaningful way, while protecting the environment by reintroducing a sense of community and responsibility (Botsman in Earley, n.d.).
By introducing consumption to social platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, connectivity is expanded. It is made increasingly easy for people to consume, however, it must still be acknowledged that consumers no longer seek massive consumption (Chahal, 2016). As stated above by Earley, the general tendency in society at the moment is to choose experiences rather than ownership, meaning that consumers would rather borrow or rent than buy (n.d.). If they do buy, the items in question need to have a special meaning or connection to the individual. These cultural tendencies indicate that it is indeed possible to be individualistic in a hyper-connected and community-based society. This clash of cultural stances has been introduced in the theory section, and it will be discussed below in section 7, however, to briefly outline the importance of the subject matter: although it is necessary to collaborate in order to deal with the global challenges, individuality and uniqueness is essential in 2010’s. These two aspect can, however, still co-exist as an increased focus on the individual could lead to the desire differentiate oneself from the crowd, which in turn could lead to decrease in consumption. This in turn could rectify the damage inflicted by over-consumption. Hereby, it could be possible to solve challenges that affect the communities and the environment by encouraging individualization. Such attempts have been made already by suggesting that individual healthcare should be personalized (McDougall & Rosamond, 2010).
6.2.5. The Sharing Economy
Another byproduct or microtrend that has emerged from the desire for transparency and control is the Sharing Economy. PWC explained the trend as “peer-to-peer, access-driven businesses”
(2015, p.7). The background of the sharing economy has several aspects. Firstly, “(…) the innovation pace is now set to fast-pace, and will get even faster as consumers become more trusting of relationships tied to social sentiment and communities.” (PWC, 2015, p.8).
Furthermore, it is also a matter of trust, convenience and a sense of community (2015). Such matters stem from consumers feeling as though industries have deceived them (2015, p. 8), and
58 the increasing pace in society which causes a need for convenient and efficient solutions. Another catalyst of the sharing economy was, according to PWC, the 2008 recession and the following need to economize. Initially, mass-produced and cheap products were the answer, however, such mindset changed as consumers and industries alike realized the environmental situation and what further mass-consumption would lead to (Petev, LSQ-Crest & Pistaferri, 2012).
As PWC (2015b, p. 15) also states: “Sharing has (…) been around forever”, however, the sharing economy distinguishes itself through connective digital platforms, collaborative and interactive consumption forms, an access-over-ownership approach and a search for emotional connections (2015b). Examples of initiatives that capitalize on the sharing economy microtrend include Airbnb, Uber and Spotify. Airbnb and Uber are peer-to-peer services that focus on the interaction and collaboration between individual private parties. Spotify, though not strictly peer-to-peer, still operates on a mutual musical platform where you, as a user, share playlists and music history (2015b).
To use the model from the health section of the analysis in connection with this particular example of the megatrend to consumer product process, it would look as follows:
In order to, once again, illustrate how each stage of the trend diffusion process is connected to the next, the illustration above should help to understand the evolution which happens as a megatrend diffuses through society. Airbnb is a product of the sharing economy and the sharing economy is a microtrend that emerged from the intersection of Community and Digitalization.
In order to create an even better understanding of how this process is shaped, I will add a few points to the illustration so that the picture become even more clear and connected to the particular megatrend, see figure 7 below. Firstly, I will add the main catalysts, or links, that connect each stage of the trend diffusion process to the other (the blue boxes). Then, I will add
Community Digitalized socialization
The Sharing Economy
Airbnb and Uber
Figure 6: The Stages of Trends
59 the link between the megatrend and consumer product or service (the green box). Lastly, I will illustrate how society helps to shape this entire picture (the yellow oval).
Starting from the top, the model below indicates some of the social influences that can affect the community trend, as these also have profound influence on how the process is shaped; these influences are inspired by, however not strictly derived from, the Nystrom framework for observing the Zeitgeist (Nystrom in Brannon, 2006). The social ideals that affect this particular process from megatrend to manifestation could be argued to be multiculturalism, as the idea of Airbnb and Uber is that the consumer places his or her trust in the host, and vice versa. In a world with blurring borders, where travel has become increasingly normal, travelers are usually open to the cultures of their respective host countries and citizens. Likewise, in the case of Uber, the drivers may have any ethnicity and cultural background, wherefore as cultures mix, ideally, a greater understanding of various opposing cultures may arise, resulting in a greater multiculturalist society. Other social ideals that may influence Community and its digitalization could be individualism and the social aesthetic ideals. These two ideals somewhat coincide in this particular case, as individual style and behavior is encouraged, wherefore the ideals of aesthetics have been altered from the conservative and uniformity perspective to diversity and differentiation.
Technology
Info-systems, Online platforms, Internet
Global events
Recession, Urbanization,
Globalization Attitudes
Differentiation, personalization, Openness
60 Such an alteration in social ideals explains why consumers and travelers prefer the personal and different environments offered by Airbnb and Uber hosts, rather than the uniformity of hotels and taxis. Such arguments also exist for the social attitudes that could affect the diffusion process.
Technology affects it, as it provides the platforms for exchange of services. The only way to gain access to an Airbnb host is through the online website. The only way to order an Uber is by using one’s smartphone. Furthermore, technology also provides efficient payment exchange and subsequent reviews of experiences. The box which states that climate changes also affect the process was added as the growing investment of time and funds to save the environment also affects the motives of adopting innovations such as Airbnb and Uber. The environmental focus of current consumers has led to a desire for sustainable travelling options which will lower the massive carbon emissions. A study conducted by the Cleantech Group concluded that: “(…) trips that rely on home sharing companies, including bed and breakfasts, emit 66 percent less CO2 than trips using hotels” (Pickell, 2015).
These are the outside factors that affect the diffusion process, however, there are also factors that link the various stages of the process. In the extended model on the previous page, the blue
Community Digitalized socialization
The Sharing
Economy Airbnb and Uber
Realization of environmental, social issues (Urbanization;
recession; trust issue) and need for change
Industry or entrepreneur attention, innovation initiatives: using technology & peer-to peer collaboration to achieve mobility, efficiency, environmental goals
Co-creation: peer accept &
active involvement. Access over Ownership, desire for trust, mobility & efficiency
Peer innovations such as Airbnb that solve global challenges through joint actions performed by a Community of Peers in common collaboration - entrepreneurship
Social ideals
Multiculturalism, Individualism, aesthetics etc.
Climate
Lower Carbon-emission
Figure 7: Extended Diffussion
61 boxes indicate the factors that link each stage of the diffusion process with the next. The first box shows the links between the megatrend and a microtrend: the megatrend is shaped by the environmental challenges that creates social needs and desires, and although this is also a part of the linkage between a megatrend and a microtrend, the link is the realization and acceptance of the need for change. In this instance, the environmental damage of mass consumption, urbanization and recessional consequences are the challenges faced by society. The links here is the realization that natural resources are finite materials and someday there will be no more unless we attempt to correct it now. Furthermore, the acceptance of the fact that all levels of society have to work together to achieve such a goal. In the diffusion of a megatrend like Community, the diffusion process will initially affect select sectors, however, eventually all industries and sectors of societies will be implicated by the resource scarcity. In this instance the diffusion process describes the existence of different time horizons.
In the model above, the next stage of the diffusion process is the microtrend, digitalized socialization, which denotes that commerce has moved onto electronic platforms. It can therefore be argued that the significant implications that lead from the microtrend to innovations and entrepreneurial initiatives include the use of technology to connect people, thereby initializing collaborations. Though previously argued that the first affected parties to react to global challenges are most likely organizations and governments, there are also instances where consumers realize or desire the need for change, hereby turning into entrepreneurs who capitalize on a desire or need in society. In the case of Health, I will argue that many initiatives and implications had to come from governments as these were too costly or complex for citizens to innovate, initiate and implicate themselves. However, in the case of Community and the growing trend for sharing and collaborating, I will argue that such an initiative is best carried out by the community itself. Especially taken into consideration the lack of trust in organizations and governments, I will argue that many consumers are opting for private or personal relations, albeit through online interaction, in order to solve the greater challenges as well as satisfying immediate needs (Maslow, 2003) such as food, shelter, security, belonging and so on. Once again this indicates that the main ingredient in the diffusion process is motivation. Be it the motivation to satisfy personal needs or to solve global challenges, motivations indicate which parties are
62 implicated by the challenge and the solution. These parties are then the stakeholder who will be most invested in change and most actively engaged in the diffusion process.