The last section of the thesis relates back to the quote at the beginning by taking stock of the current progress made by the maritime industry to combat climate change. Is the industry on a green pathway to decarbonize maritime transport to support global climate change goals? At the writing of this thesis, the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP 26) was hosted in Glasgow, with the key goal of securing global net-zero emissions by mid-century and keeping the 1.5 degrees goal within reach. Realizing this goal will require extraordinary joint efforts by the global community given the current situation. To illustrate, a main conclusion of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report released in August 2021 is that without immediate and large-scale reductions
in GHG emissions, it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees or even 2.0 degrees (IPCC, 2021). Regarding the status quo of the green transition in the maritime industry, the re-cently released Industry Transition Strategy report from the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (CZCS) gives a sobering outlook. According to the report, the industry is currently on a path to around a 20%increase in GHG emissions in 2050 compared to today (CZCS, 2021). This outlook stands in stark contrast to both the mid-century net-zero emissions target of COP 26 and the level of ambition stated in the initial IMO GHG strategy. So what is needed for the green transition of the maritime industry to become a reality through the lens of the Ph.D. project?
One key cornerstone is that the regulatory framework for energy efficiency is effective in stimulat-ing clean technology adoption to improve the energy efficiency of the global fleet. For this purpose, at MEPC 75, the phase III requirements for the EEDI were strengthened by moving them forward from 2025 to 2022 for multiple ship types and mandating more stringent reduction targets for container ships (MEPC, 2020). Furthermore, the introduction of a possible phase IV for the EEDI is currently a subject of discussion at the IMO. While being a step in the right direction, these actions do not address the highlighted problems associated with the strategy of the regulator (ex ante) mandating minimum performance standards. Therefore, it seems concerning that the forth-coming policy measures in 2023 intended to strengthen the existing framework for energy efficiency are utilizing the same regulatory approach. In particular, for the EEXI regulation — the EEDI counterpart for existing vessels — the easiest way for existing vessels to comply with the mandated standards might be engine power limitations to reduce a vessel’s fuel consumption and, in turn, carbon emissions. However, speed reductions may lead to a variety of potential side effects, like an increase in the world fleet to meet the demand for shipping or even an increase in total global emissions by inducing demand shifts to moreCO2-intensive modes of transport (Psaraftis, 2019).
Another key component of the green transition is the widespread availability and adoption of al-ternative fuels in the maritime industry. Since the beginning of the Ph.D. projects in 2018, the adoption of alternative fuels has gained significant traction. To illustrate, according to the Clark-son Shipping Intelligence Network, in August 2021, roughly 3.5% of the existing fleet and 30% of the vessel order book (by GT) have the capabilities to use alternative propulsion. Currently, the
most frequently adopted alternative fuel is LNG, as the technology is mature, and it has a robust global bunkering infrastructure. While LNG can considerably reduce the environmental impacts of air pollution, LNG is still a fossil fuel and can only serve as a transition fuel until other fuel options become widely available. Another alternative fuel currently receiving much attention is methanol. To illustrate, in August 2021, Mæersk announced that they ordered eight new large ocean-going container vessels with the capabilities of using methanol fuel to accelerate the decar-bonization of their fleet (Mærsk, 2021). In contrast to LNG, methanol can be a carbon-neutral fuel if it is produced with renewable electricity and biogenic carbon. There is still much uncertainty concerning the carbon-free fuel options hydrogen and ammonia, which could be the key technology enablers for the vision of decarbonized maritime transport. Either fuel option would require sizable investments by stakeholders in the industry to make their widespread adoption and availability a reality in the future.
The last component discussed here is a global carbon-pricing mechanism for the maritime industry, operationalized through an MBM to establish the polluter pays principle. Such a mechanism can be a key driver of the green transition by providing economic incentives for the adoption of clean technologies and, in particular, alternative fuels. Moreover, an MBM can generate the necessary funds to subsidize the extraordinary investments needed and create a level playing field for the industry. However, the effectiveness of an MBM, like an ETS (but also a bunker levy scheme), to support the green transition will crucially depend on their stringent policy design. As previously discussed, the mechanism for the allocation of licenses, the geographical scope of the ETS, and the supply of licenses over time are just a few practical design choices that could have a drastic impact on the investment incentives under an ETS. Further, due to the long lifetime of ships’ it is important that an MBM be implemented soon to still reach the mid-century emission reduction targets. It is the hope of the author that the discussions and calls to action of COP 26 can rekindle the work and development of a global MBM for the maritime industry as soon as possible at the IMO.
To conclude, there is still a green pathway for the maritime industry but the time window of oppor-tunity for reaching global climate change goals is closing soon; thus, profound changes are needed
in the industry to support these goals and reach their own ambitions. Note that the current level of ambition outlined in the IMO GHG strategy is lower than the stipulated goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century of COP 26. It is likely that the IMO will have to raise its level of ambition in the revised IMO GHG strategy in 2023. In this revised strategy, it is the author’s belief that a clear commitment to the green transition is required by the policy maker, which is reflected in the design and enforcement of regulatory measures. Such a commitment is not only important to attach real consequences if ambitions are not met, but also to act as reassurance for ambitious ship owners in the industry that their decarbonization efforts will not put them at a disadvantage compared to less ambitious ship owners. I hope this Ph.D. project can do its part to provide guidance in the green transition of the maritime industry through its insights and to spark future academic research in this direction to support further the industry in its vision to decarbonize maritime transport.
References
Adland, R., Cariou, P., Jia, H., & Wolff, F.-C. (2018). The energy efficiency effects of periodic ship hull cleaning. Journal of Cleaner Production,178, 1–13.
CZCS. (2021). Industry transition strategy report (Report). Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping. Retrieved fromhttps://cms.zerocarbonshipping.com/media/
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2004
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