6 Modelling results – Green power scenarios
6.2 CO 2 emission limit
Based on the level of CO2 emissions in the RE share scenarios, a new set of scenarios are analysed. The CO2 emissions from the RE share scenarios (see
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C1 RE target RE2 40pct RE3 50pct RE4 60pct RE5 70pct RE6 80pct C1 RE target RE2 40pct RE3 50pct RE4 60pct RE5 70pct RE6 80pct C1 RE target RE2 40pct RE3 50pct RE4 60pct RE5 70pct RE6 80pct C1 RE target RE2 40pct RE3 50pct RE4 60pct RE5 70pct RE6 80pct
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GW
Figure 53) are used as an emission limit on CO2. Since there are other ways of reducing CO2 than renewable energy (e.g. fuel shift from coal to natural gas), the new set of scenarios will illustrate the same CO2 reduction, but potentially with a different energy mix.
Figure 57 and Figure 58 show the generation capacity (GW) and the genera-tion (TWh) in the new set of scenarios. The main difference with the previous set of scenarios is that significant investments take place in 2040 and 2050 to utilise LNG. There is lower solar power and battery capacity, as well as less imported and domestic coal. On an overall level the results show that to achieve CO2 reduction, replacing coal with LNG can be cost-effective com-pared to PV and batteries in some places of Vietnam. The LNG capacity is lo-cated near the demand centres in the North and the South regions.
Figure 57: Generation capacity for the six CO2 emission limit (EL) scenarios.
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EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct
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Battery Solar Wind offshore Wind Hydro Other RE Biomass Oil Imp. LNG Dom. NG Imp. coal Dom. coal
Figure 58: Annual electricity generation, import from 3rd countries and power demand (including transmission and distribution losses) in the six CO2 emission limit scenarios. Note: The negative generation from batteries is the net loss.
Figure 59 shows that the share of renewable energy is, as expected, lower than in the first set of scenarios. For example, in the most ambitious scenario (i.e. 80% RE-share scenario) the fulfilled RE target corresponds to an 80%
share of renewables in the total generation, but an RE share of only 74% RE is achieved in the corresponding CO2 scenario (for the year 2050).
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EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct
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Import 3rd Battery Solar Wind offshore Wind Hydro Other RE Biomass Oil Imp. LNG Dom. NG Imp. coal
Figure 59: Share of renewable energy in C1 RE target and the five CO2 emission limit scenarios.
The red marks represent the RE-share goals in the corresponding renewable energy scenarios (see section 7.1). This goal is not active in the CO2 scenarios.
Figure 60 shows the annual CO2 emissions. The total emission level is the same as in Figure 53. However, the emissions from coal have been reduced, while more emissions come from LNG in the most ambitious scenarios. The CO2 shadow values for the emission limit scenarios are shown in Figure 61.
The shadow values range between 2.5 and 60.5 USD/t for all emission limit scenarios. Despite growing power demand and increasing RE target, by 2050, reasonable CO2 shadow values are still seen (between 2.5 and 55.5 USD/t).
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EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct
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RE Conventional RE share scenarios
Figure 60: CO2 emissions in the six CO2 emission limit scenarios.
Figure 61: CO2 shadow values for the six CO2 emission limit scenarios.
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EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct
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Mt Oil
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EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct
As shown in Figure 63, increasingly ambitious limits on CO2 emissions results in larger total system costs. To a large extent, the increase in cost comes from investments in more wind and solar capacity. Unlike the RE share scenarios, there is no large decrease in fuel costs in the CO2 emission limit scenarios, as more expensive LNG is imported (Figure 63).
Figure 62: Total system costs in the six CO2 emission limit scenarios.
Figure 63: The costs of imported fuels in the six CO2 emission limit scenarios.
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EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct EL1 RE target EL3 50pct EL5 70pct
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EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct EL1 RE target EL2 40pct EL3 50pct EL4 60pct EL5 70pct EL6 80pct
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Oil Imp. LNG Imp. coal
While CO2 emissions decrease to the same extent as in the RE share scenarios, Figure 63 shows that the drawback of the emission limit scenarios is a large dependence on imported fuels, with high LNG costs as a result.
Figure 64: Electricity generated by natural gas and LNG in the six CO2 emission limit scenarios.