Detailed results for the power sector - Modelling results

5 Modelling results - Core scenarios

5.4 Detailed results for the power sector

Based on the electricity demand and the biomass allocation to the power sec-tor from TIMES, detailed analyses have been performed with Balmorel for the power sector. This is done with more details (i.e. 6 regions, 6 demand profiles, 18 wind speed profiles, 6 solar profiles, and 364 time-steps) and the results reflect to a higher degree the challenges with the variable generation, e.g.

from wind and solar power.

Figure 43 shows the generation capacity for the five core scenarios. In all sce-narios (also the C0 Unrestricted scenario), large investments in solar, wind and batteries take place, indicating that these technologies represent the socio-economic least-cost solution for the expansion of the generation capacity.

The annual generation is shown in Figure 44. In 2050, 43% of the generation comes from renewable sources in the C1 RE target scenario, hereof 23% solar, 9% hydro, 7% onshore and 3% offshore wind. The remaining generation is mostly domestic and imported coal-based. In the C0 Unrestricted scenario, only 37% of the generation is renewable. The C2 No new coal scenario has a higher RE share of 50% and high shares of LNG generation coming in after 2030 (up to 32% by 2050). In the C4 Combination scenario the RE share is even higher (59%) due to the lower power demand by energy efficiency.

The regional generation shown in Figure 45 (C1 RE target) shows that most of the generation takes place in the North and the South regions, which are the largest demand centres. Northern generation is mainly coal-based, comple-mented with hydro and small shares of biomass generation. Southern genera-tion sees more wind, solar and natural gas generagenera-tion.

From 2030, investments in batteries appear in the power system. Although pumped hydro is also an investment option, batteries are a more attractive investment option when considering balancing investment costs and efficien-cy results. In the C1 RE target scenario, 68 GW of batteries are installed in 2050 (Table 12). The batteries have a relatively small storage capacity (MWh) compared to the charging/generating capacity (MW): 1.5-3.5 MWh/MW. This factor is optimised by the model.

Figure 43: Generation capacity power sector in the five core scenarios.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target C2 RE+NNC C3 RE+EE C4 RE+NNC+EE C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target C2 RE+NNC C3 RE+EE C4 RE+NNC+EE C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target C2 RE+NNC C3 RE+EE C4 RE+NNC+EE C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target C2 RE+NNC C3 RE+EE C4 RE+NNC+EE

2020 2030 2040 2050

Battery Solar Wind offshore Wind Hydro Other RE Biomass Oil Imp. LNG Dom. NG Imp. coal Dom. coal

Figure 44: Annual electricity generation, import from 3^rd countries and power demand (including transmission and distribution losses) in the five core scenarios. Negative values for batteries represent the loss in the batteries.

Figure 45: Annual electricity generation, import from 3^rd countries and power demand (including transmission and distribution losses) per region for the C1 RE Target scenario. Negative values for batteries represent the loss in the batteries.

-200

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

2020 2040 2020 2040 2020 2040 2020 2040 2020 2040 2020 2040

North North

Table 12: Battery capacities in the five core scenarios.

Year CaseName

Charging and generation capacity (GW)

Storage

capacity (GWh) GWh/GW

2030 C0 Unrestricted 4 7 1.68

C1 RE target 4 7 1.68

C2 No new coal 7 12 1.68

C3 Energy efficiency 3 4 1.68

C4 Combination 2 3 1.68

2040 C0 Unrestricted 13 22 1.68

C1 RE target 20 44 2.20

C2 No new coal 21 46 2.17

C3 Energy efficiency 10 17 1.68

C4 Combination 16 32 1.97

2050 C0 Unrestricted 45 116 2.59

C1 RE target 74 205 2.77

C2 No new coal 93 270 2.90

C3 Energy efficiency 32 73 2.27

C4 Combination 63 170 2.68

Figure 46 shows the CO2 emissions in the five core scenarios. The C1 RE target scenario has an emission level that is 14% lower in compared to the C0 Unre-stricted scenario in 2050. In the C2 No new coal and the C4 Combination sce-narios the emissions are 47% and 34% of the C0 Unrestricted scenario respec-tively. However, the system costs are also the highest in the C2 No new coal scenario with about 15% increase compared to the C0 Unrestricted scenario in 2050 (Figure 47). The C1 RE target has a cost increase of 6% compared to C0 Unrestricted. The energy efficiency scenarios have lower total costs for the power sector as the demand which needs to be supplied is lower.

Figure 46: CO2 emissions from the power sector in the five core scenarios.

Figure 47: System costs for the power sector in the five core scenarios.

Figure 48 and Figure 49 show examples of the hourly dispatch of the power system in 2020 and 2050 for a low and a high demand week respectively. It can be seen how batteries and solar power interact.

The scale of the generation increases strongly between 2020 and 2050 due to much larger power demand. In the low demand week in 2050, some curtail-ment takes place during peak solar hours, where the capacity of the batteries is maxed out.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt Oil

Imp. LNG Dom. NG Imp. coal Dom. coal

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2020 2030 2040 2050

Billion USD

Start-up costs Fuel cost Variable O&M Fixed O&M Capital cost gen.

Capital cost trans.

Figure 48: Hourly dispatch in the C1 RE target scenario. Week 4 (low demand). Above 2020 and

T001 T009 T017 T025 T033 T041 T049 T057 T065 T073 T081 T089 T097 T105 T113 T121 T129 T137 T145 T153 T161

T001 T010 T019 T028 T037 T046 T055 T064 T073 T082 T091 T100 T109 T118 T127 T136 T145 T154 T163

Figure 49: Hourly dispatch in the C1 RE target scenario. Week 39 (high demand). Above 2020 and below 2050.

In document 1.1 Vietnamese energy landscape (Sider 63-69)