Are the Marginalised Truly Marginalised?

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Socialforskningsinstituttet The Danish National Institute of Social Research

Are the Marginalised Truly Marginalised ?

A Study of Labour Force Attachment in Denmark Lars Pico Geerdsen

Social Integration and Marginalisation Working Paper 24:2002

Working Paper

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Are the Marginalised Truly Marginalised?

A Study of Labour Force Attachment in Denmark

Lars Pico Geerdsen

Social Integration and Marginalisation Working Paper 24:2002

The Working Paper Series of The Danish National Institute of Social Research contain interim results of research and preparatory studies. The Working Paper Series provide a basis for professional discussion as part of the research process.

Readers should note that results and interpretations in the final report or article may differ from the present Working Paper. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including ©-notice, is given to the source.

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43

(14)

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44

(15)

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45

(16)

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46

(17)

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(18)

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48

(19)

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49

(20)

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(21)

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dsso|lqj wkh zhljkwv frqvwuxfwhg e| Vwdwlvwlfv Ghqpdun1 Qrwlfh wkdw wkh xq0 hpsor|hg duh fohduo| ryhu vdpsohg zkhuh dv wkh vkduh ri pdujlqdo lqglylgxdov vwd|v doprvw xqfkdqjhg1 Wklv lqglfdwhv wkdw d odujh sursruwlrq ri wkh pdu0 jlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov glg qrw uhfhlyh xqhpsor|phqw lqvxudqfh lq wkh txduwhu sulru wr wkh vxuyh|1 Wkh pdujlqdolvhg jurxs frqvwlwxwhv pruh wkdq 53 shu fhqw ri wkh qrq hpsor|hg lqglylgxdov dqg lv dffruglqj wr wkh vxuyh| dfwxdoo| odujhu wkdq wkh xqhpsor|phqw vwdwh1 Zkhq lw frphv wr wkh glvwulexwlrq ryhu djh wkh

|rxqj djh jurxsv vhhp wr eh ryhu uhsuhvhqwhg lq doo wkuhh qrq hpsor|phqw vwdwhv1 Wkh wzr vwdwhv= pdujlqdolvhg dqg rxw ri oderxu irufh glvsod| d khdy|

hqg xs lq wkhvh wzr oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv1 Lqglylgxdov* fkrlfh ri uhwluhphqw djh dovr kdv dq lpsdfw rq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv1 Lw grhv dsshdu wkdw lqglylgxdov ohdyh wkh pdujlqdolvhg jurxs douhdg| dw dq djh ehwzhhq 83 dqg 93 |hduv zkhuh dv wklv djh jurxs lv qrw wr wkh vdph h{whqg xqghu uhsuhvhqwhg lq wkh rwkhu oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv1 Djdlq wklv pd| eh gxh

4;

(22)

Wdeoh 9= Hvwlpdwhg qxpehu ri pdujlqdolvhg lq Ghqpdun fdwhjrulvhg dffruglqj wr djh dqg oderxu pdunhw dwwdfkphqw +xvlqj zhljkwv,1

Qr uhvsrqfh Zdlwlqj Qrq zdlwlqj Hgxfdwlrq Wrwdo

48Djh 63 5/4:; 5/993 53/463 ;</;79 447/;46

63Djh 73 4/839 4/7<7 4;/:4: 4</589 73/<:6 73Djh 83 4/378 4/74< </9<7 </464 54/5;<

83Djh 93 <3: 4/79: </47: 6/584 47/::5

93Djh 4<4 8;; 5/<75 4:9 6/;<:

Wrwdo 8/;5: :/95< 93/963 454/993 4<8/:78

wkh idfw wkdw pdq| ri wkh srvvleoh frqwulexwlqj uhdvrqv iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq glvdsshdu iru wklv djh jurxs dqg xs1 H{dpsohv duh hgxfdwlrq dv zhoo dv fklog dqg idplo| plqglqj1

Lq wdeoh 9 wkh pdujlqdolvhg jurxs lv glylghg lqwr wkuhh glhuhqw vwdwhv +dv zhoo dv d uhvlgxdo jurxs,1 Wkh grplqdwlqj jurxs lv fohduo| hgxfdwlrq zklfk frqwdlqv hyhu|erg| zkr jlyhv hgxfdwlrq dv d uhdvrq iru ehlqj lq wkh pdu0 jlqdolvhg vwdwh1 Qrwlfh wkdw wkh hgxfdwlrq vxejurxs lv doprvw h{foxvlyho| lq wkh djh jurxs ehwzhhq 48 dqg 63 |hduv ri djh1 Dfwxdoo| lqglylgxdov ehwzhhq wkh djh ri 48 dqg 63 |hduv zkr uhsruw hgxfdwlrq dv d uhdvrq iru ehlqj pdu0 jlqdolvhg frqvwlwxwh doprvw kdoi ri doo pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov lq Ghqpdun1 Wkh hgxfdwlrq jurxs lv wzlfh dv elj dv wkh vhfrqg odujhvw jurxs zklfk frq0 vlvwv ri lqglylgxdov zkr duh qrw zdlwlqj iru hpsor|phqw1 Lq wklv jurxs wkh uhdvrqv iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq ydulhv iurp vlfnqhvv dqg kdqglfdsv/ wr idplo|

dqg fklog fduh/ fi1 dsshqgl{ E iru d ixoo ghvfulswlrq1 Hvshfldoo| lqglylgxdov plqglqj fkloguhq dqg idplo| pd| eh wkh uhdvrq iru wkh ryhu uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri lqglylgxdov ehwzhhq 48 dqg 73 |hduv ri djh iru wklv jurxs1 Wkh odvw jurxs lv lqglylgxdov zkr kdyh hqghg xs lq wkh pdujlqdolvhg vwdwh ehfdxvh wkh| duh

4<

(23)

Wdeoh := Hvwlpdwhg qxpehu ri pdujlqdolvhg glylghg rq djh dqg dydlodelolw|

iru hpsor|phqw +xvlqj zhljkwv,1

4 zhhn 5 zhhnv 4 prqwk Odwhu Qr uhso| Wrwdo

48Djh 63 44/<79 4/39: 8/7<< <8/<:3 83: 447/<;<

63Djh 73 8/37< 5;9 5/;;: 65/4<4 753 73/;66

73Djh 83 7/8<5 554 4/;87 47/537 68: 54/55<

83Djh 93 8/;8: 534 4/3;; :/57: 6;6 47/::9

93Djh 5/873 96 548 4/375 8: 6/<4;

Wrwdo 5</<;7 4/;6; 44/876 483/987 4/:59 4<8/:78

zdlwlqj iru hpsor|phqw1 Lw frqvwlwxwhv ohvv wkdq 8 shu fhqw ri wkh wrwdo jurxs ri pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov1 Dovr lq wklv jurxs lv wkhuh dq ryhu uhsuh0 vhqwdwlrq ri |rxqj lqglylgxdov frpsduhg wr wkh srsxodwlrq dyhudjh1

Lq wdeoh : wkh hvwlpdwhg jurxs ri pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov lv fdwhjrulvhg dffruglqj wr djh dqg dydlodelolw| iru hpsor|phqw1 Rqo| derxw 48 shu fhqw ri wkh pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov uhsruw wkdw wkh| fdq xqghuwdnh hpsor|phqw lq wkh zhhn wkh| duh dvnhg1 Wklv grhv lqglfdwh wkdw wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh txhvwlrq xvhg iru wkh pdujlqdolvdwlrq ghqlwlrq lq wkh Gdqlvk OIV dqg wkh Fdqdgldq VMR/ uhvshfwlyho|/ grhv kdyh d vxevwdqwldo lpsdfw rq wkh vhohfwlrq ri lqglylgxdov iru wkh vwdwh1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh lpsruwdqw iru d suhflvh ghqlwlrq ri pdujlqdolvdwlrq wr dvn h{dfwo| zkhq lqglylgxdov zrxog olnh wr zrun1 Lw lv vwulnlqj wkdw pruh wkdq :8 shu fhqw ri wkh pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov uhsruw wkdw wkh| qhhg pruh wkdq d prqwk ehiruh wkh| fdq xqghuwdnh hpsor|phqw1 Iru wkh xqghu wkluw| wkh vkduh lv doprvw ;8 shu fhqw1 Vwloo/ wkh vkduh ri lqglylgxdov zkr fdq frpphqfh zrun dw dq hpplqhqw gdwh lv qrw vr vpdoo wkdw wkh vwdwh lv luuhohydqw1 Lqglylgxdov zkr fdq ehjlq hpsor|phqw zlwklq d prqwk frxqw 8 shu fhqw ri doo qrq hpsor|hg lqglylgxdov +pruh wkdq 76/333 shrsoh, dqg lv

53

(24)

Wdeoh ;= Hvwlpdwhg qxpehu ri pdujlqdolvhg glylghg rq uhdvrq iru pdujlqdol0 vdwlrq dqg dydlodelolw| iru hpsor|phqw +xvlqj zhljkwv,1

zdlwlqj qrq zdlwlqj hgxfdwlrq Qr uhso| Wrwdo

4 zhhn 8/7;3 45/74; </3<5 5/<<6 5</<;7 5 zhhnv 5;9 ;34 9:; :6 4/;6;

4 prqwk 68; 8/9:9 8/353 7;; 44/876 Odwhu 4/767 73/<8< 439/:6: 4/857 483/987

Qr uhso| :3 ::8 465 :7< 4/:59

Wrwdo :/95< 93/963 454/993 8/;5: 4<8/:78

derxw d txduwhu wkh vl}h ri wkh xqhpsor|hg jurxs1 Iru lqglylgxdov zkr fdq ehjlq zlwklq d zhhn wkh vkduh ri doo qrq hpsor|hg lqglylgxdov lv dsur{lpdwho|

6 shu fhqw dqg dsur{lpdwho| rqh iwk wkh vl}h ri wkh xqhpsor|hg jurxs1 Lq wdeoh ; wkh hvwlpdwhg jurxs ri pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov lv glylghg df0 fruglqj wr uhdvrqv iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq dqg dydlodelolw| iru zrun1 Doprvw <3 shu fhqw ri lqglylgxdov jlylqj hgxfdwlrq dv d uhdvrq iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq qhhg pruh wkdq rqh prqwk ehiruh wkh| duh dydlodeoh iru zrun1 Wklv grhv lqglfdwh wkdw wkh txhvwlrqv lq wkh Gdqlvk OIV grhv lqfoxgh d odujh qxpehu ri vwxghqwv zkr duh zdlwlqj wr qlvk wkh| ghjuhh ehiruh wkh| dsso| iru mrev1 Lqglylgxdov zkr fdq frpphqfh hpsor|phqw zlwklq d zhhn duh vsuhdg ryhu doo fdwhjrulhv1 Rqh wklug jlyh hgxfdwlrq dv d uhdvrq ru pdujlqdolvdwlrq1 73 shu fhqw uhsruw wkh| duh qrw zdlwlqj iru hpsor|phqw dqg 53 shu fhqw vd| wkh| duh zdlwlqj iru hpsor|phqw1 Hvshfldoo| wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs uhsruwv kljk dydlodelo0 lw|1 Pruh wkdq :3 shu fhqw ri wklv jurxs uhsruw wkdw wkh| fdq frpphqfh hpsor|phqw zlwklq d zhhn1

54

(25)

9 Wudqvihu suredelolwlhv

Lq rughu wr jhw d ylhz ri wkh pryhphqwv ehwzhhq oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv/ L zloo lq wklv sdshu suhvhqw dyhudjh wudqvlwlrq vkduhv diwhu d txduwhu1 Wkh vkduhv fdq eh lqwhusuhwhg dv urxjk hvwlpdwhv ri wkh wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv ehwzhhq vwdwhv1 Lq jxuh 4 wr 7 wkh hvwlpdwhg wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv diwhu d txduwhu iurp wkh wkuhh qrq hpsor|phqw vwdwhv duh suhvhqwhg iru hdfk |hdu ehwzhhq 4<<8 dqg 4<<<1 Wkh grwwhg olqhv duh <8 shu fhqw frqghqfh edqgv1 Jhqhudoo|

wkh jxuhv lqglfdwh wkdw pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov ehkdyh vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp erwk xqhpsor|hg lqglylgxdov dqg lqglylgxdov rxwvlgh wkh oderxu irufh1 Pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov kdyh d kljkhu suredelolw| ri hqwhulqj hpsor|phqw wkdq lqglylgxdov rxw ri oderxu irufh exw d orzhu suredelolw| wkdq xqhpsor|hg lqglylgxdov1 Wkh vdph jrhv iru wkh suredelolw| lqwr xqhpsor|phqw1 Zkhq lw frphv wr wkh suredelolw| ri ohdylqj wkh oderxu irufh/ pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov kdyh d orzhu suredelolw| wkdq lqglylgxdov douhdg| rxw ri wkh oderxu irufh exw kljkhu wkdq xqhpsor|hg lqglylgxdov1 Lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wr qrwh wkdw wkh jhqhudo errp lq wkh Gdqlvk hfrqrp| iurp 4<<6 dqg rqzdugv vhhpv wr kdyh dq hhfw suhgrplqdqwo| rq xqhpsor|hg lqglylgxdov zkhuh dv wkh wudqvlwlrq suredelol0 wlhv iru wkh pdujlqdolvhg lqglylgxdov dqg lqglylgxdov rxw ri oderxu irufh vhhp wr eh doprvw xqdhfwhg1 Wklv vhhpv hvshfldoo| fohdu iru wkh pryhphqw lqwr hpsor|phqw dqg xqhpsor|phqw zkhuh lqglylgxdov zkr duh pdujlqdolvhg ru rxw ri oderxu irufh kdyh dq doprvw frqvwdqw wudqvlwlrq suredelolw| ryhu wkh vdpsoh shulrg1 Wklv uhvxow lv vxusulvlqj vlqfh rwkhu vwxglhv zklfk irfxv rq lqglylgxdov zlwk pdujlqdo dwwdfkphqw wr wkh oderxu pdunhw qg wkdw hvsh0 fldoo| wkh vl}h ri wkh jurxs lv qhjdwlyho| fruuhodwhg zlwk wkh exvlqhvv f|foh/ fi1 RHFG +4<;:,/ Plqlvwu| ri Ilqdqfh +4<<:,1 Wkh uhdvrq iru wklv uhvxow pd| eh irxqg lq wkh odujh jurxs ri vwxghqwv zkr duh lqfoxghg lq wklv pdujlqdolvdwlrq ghqlwlrq/ fi1 vhfwlrq deryh1

Lq jxuh 8 wr ; wkh wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv iurp pdujlqdolvdwlrq duh gl0 55

(26)

Iljxuh 4= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwhv lqwr hpsor|phqw1

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 0,5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XE)

Unemployed Marginalised Outside

Iljxuh 5= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwhv lqwr xqhpsor|phqw1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XU)

56

(27)

Iljxuh 6= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwhv lqwr pdujlqdolvdwlrq1

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 0,5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XM)

Iljxuh 7= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwhv rxw ri oderxu irufh

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XO)

57

(28)

Iljxuh 8= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv lqwr hpsor|phqw1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(ME)

Waiting Non waiting Education

Iljxuh 9= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv lqwr xqhpsor|phqw1

-0,1 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(MU)

58

(29)

Iljxuh := Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv lqwr pdujlqdolvdwlrq1

-0,1 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(MM)

Iljxuh ;= Wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv rxw ri oderxu irufh1

-0,1 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(MO)

59

(30)

ylghg lqwr wkh glhuhqw vxejurxsv dffruglqj wr uhdvrq iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq dv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 71 Wkh hvwlpdwlrqv duh jhqhudoo| uhvwudlqhg e| wkh olplwhg ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp zkhq wkh pdujlqdolvdwlrq vwdwh lv eurnhq lqwr vxejurxsv1 Hvshfldoo| wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs vxhuv iurp zlgh frqghqfh edqgv1 Vwloo/

vrph lqwhuhvwlqj revhuydwlrqv fdq eh pdgh iurp wkh hvwlpdwruv1 Rqh lqwhuhvw0 lqj qglqj lv wkdw wkh vwdeoh wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv iurp wkh pdujlqdolvdwlrq vwdwh dv irxqg lq jxuh 4 wr 7 vhhp wr eh pdlqo| gxh wr lqglylgxdov vwdwlqj hgxfdwlrq ru qrq zdlwlqj dv uhdvrq iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq1 Lqglylgxdov zkr vwdwh wkdw wkh| duh zdlwlqj iru hpsor|phqw glvsod| wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv zklfk vhhpv wr eh kljko| fruuhodwhg zlwk wkh errp ri wkh Gdqlvk hfrqrp|

kljkhu wkdq erwk wkh qrq zdlwlqj dqg hgxfdwlrq jurxs1 D vlplodu uhvxow lv irxqg lq jxuh : zkhuh wkh suredelolw| ri vwd|lqj pdujlqdolvhg iru wkh zdlw0 lqj vxejurxs lv vljqlfdqwo| orzhu wkdq iru wkh wzr rwkhu vxejurxsv1 Wklv dovr lqglfdwhv wkdw lqglylgxdov lq wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs gr qrw zdlw iru yhu|

orqj1 Wkh wzr rwkhu vxejurxsv qrq zdlwlqj dqg hgxfdwlrq glvsod| yhu|

vlplodu wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv1 Wkhuh lv vrph lqglfdwlrq wkdw lqglylgxdov zkr uhsruw hgxfdwlrq dv wkh uhdvrq iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq kdyh d kljkhu suredelolw|

ri hqwhulqj hpsor|phqw wkdq lqglylgxdov zkr duh qrw zdlwlqj iru hpsor|0 phqw1 Wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr vxejurxsv/ wkrxjk/ lv rqo| vljqlfdqw

5:

(31)

iru 4<<8 dqg 4<<91

Lq jxuh < wr 45 wkh vxejurxsv ri pdujlqdolvdwlrq duh frpsduhg zlwk wkh xqhpsor|phqw dqg rxw ri oderxu irufh vwdwh1 Wkh frqghqfh edqgv kdyh ehhq rplwwhg iru fodulw|1 Rqh lqwhuhvwlqj qglqj lv wkdw wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs dfwxdoo| kdv d kljkhu suredelolw| ri qglqj hpsor|phqw wkdq xqhpsor|hg lqglylgxdov1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv lqwr hpsor|phqw ryhu wkh |hduv lv vwurqjhu iru wkh zdlwlqj jurxs wkdq iru xqhp0 sor|hg lqglylgxdov1 Dv phqwlrqhg ehiruh wklv pd| eh gxh wr up vshflf kxpdq fdslwdo dprqj wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs1 Dsduw iurp zkhq lw frphv wr hqwhulqj hpsor|phqw ru xqhpsor|phqw/ wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs dfwxdoo| vhhpv wr eh forvho| olqnhg zlwk wkh xqhpsor|phqw vxejurxs1 Wkh suredelolw| ri erwk vwd|lqj lq wkh pdujlqdolvhg vwdwh dqg ohdylqj wkh oderxu pdunhw lv orz iru wkh zdlwlqj vxejurxs mxvw dv iru wkh xqhpsor|hg vwdwh1 Wkh rwkhu vxe0 jurxsv/ qrq zdlwlqj dqg hgxfdwlrq grhv qrw vhhp wr iroorz wkh wudqvlwlrq sdwwhuq ri qhlwkhu wkh xqhpsor|hg qru wkh rxwvlgh jurxs1 Wkh wzr vxejurxsv jhqhuhoo| dsshdu wr kdyh vwurqjhu oderxu pdunhw dwwdfkphqw wkdq wkh rxwvlgh jurxs exw zhdnhu dwwdfkphqw wkdq wkh xqhpsor|hg jurxs1

Lq jxuh 46 wr 49 wkh wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv duh glvsod|hg zlwk pdu0 jlqdolvdwlrq fdwhjrulvhg dffruglqj wr dydlodelolw|1 Wklv glylvlrq ri wkh pdu0 jlqdolvdwlrq jurxs grhv qrw jlyh dv fohdu lqglfdwlrqv dv glylglqj dffruglqj wr uhdvrq iru pdujlqdolvdwlrq1 Wkhuh lv d zhdn whqghqf| wkdw lqglylgxdov zkr duh dydlodeoh zlwklq d zhhn ru d prqwk kdyh kljkhu suredelolw| ri qglqj hpsor|phqw ru hqwhu xqhpsor|phqw wkdq lqglylgxdov zkr duh dydlodeoh odwhu wkdq d prqwk1 Dovr/ zkhq lw frphv wr wkh vkduh wkdw vwd|v pdujlqdolvhg diwhu d txduwhu/ lqglylgxdov zkr duh dydlodeoh odwhu wkdq zlwklq d prqwk gr kdyh d kljkhu suredelolw| ri vwd|lqj pdujlqdolvhg wkdq lqglylgxdov zkr duh pruh txlfno| dydlodeoh/ fi1 jxuh 481

5;

(32)

Iljxuh <= Wudqvlwlrq lqwr hpsor|phqw iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XE)

Unemployed Waiting Non waiting Education Outside

Iljxuh 43= Wudqvlwlrq lqwr xqhpsor|phqw iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XU)

5<

(33)

Iljxuh 44= Wudqvlwlrq lqwr pdujlqdolvdwlrq iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XM)

Iljxuh 45= Wudqvlwlrq rxw ri wkh oderxu irufh iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XO)

63

(34)

Iljxuh 46= Wudqvlwlrq lqwr hpsor|phqw iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv lqfoxglqj xq0 hpsor|hg dqg rxwvlgh1

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XE)

Unemployment < 1 week < 1month Later Outside

Iljxuh 47= Wudqvlwlrq lqwr xqhpsor|phqw iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv lqfoxglqj xqhpsor|hg dqg rxwvlgh1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XU)

Unemployment < 1 week < 1 month Later Outside

64

(35)

Iljxuh 48= Wudqvlwlrq lqwr pdujlqdolvdwlrq iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv lqfoxglqj xqhpsor|hg dqg rxwvlgh1

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 0,5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XM)

Iljxuh 49= Wudqvlwlrq rxw ri wkh oderxu irufh iru glhuhqw vxejurxsv lqfoxglqj xqhpsor|hg dqg rxwvlgh1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

P(XO)

65

(36)

:Hvwlpdwlrq dqg htxlydohqfh whvw ri oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv Wkh qh{w vwhs ri wkh h{dplqdwlrq ri wkh pdujlqdolvhg vwdwh lv wr hvwlpdwh wkh pryhphqwv ehwzhhq oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv frqglwlrqhg rq ydulrxv ghprjudsklf yduldeohv1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj L suhvhqw glhuhqw hvwlpdwlrqv ri pryhphqwv eh0 wzhhq vwdwhv d txduwhu diwhu dqg rqh |hdu diwhu uvw revhuydwlrq1 Wkh gdwd vhw kdv ehhq glylghg erwk dffruglqj wr djh dqg jhqghu lq rughu wr orrn iru vshflf hhfwv iru wkhvh vxejurxsv1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iurp wkh glylghg gdwd vhw duh suhvhqwhg lq dsshqgl{ F1 Zkhq lw frphv wr ghsduwxuh vwdwhv/

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Lq wdeoh < wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri wkh hqwluh vdpsoh duh suhvhqwhg1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq lv frqglwlrqhg rq wkh wkuhh qrq hpsor|phqw vwdwhv +xqhpsor|0 phqw/ pdujlqdolvhg dqg rxwvlgh oderxu irufh,1 Lq jhqhudo wkh uhvxowv iroorz wkh pryhphqwv glvsod|hg lq wkh jxuh 4 wr 71 Wkh suredelolw| ri hpsor|phqw vhhpv wr eh kljkhvw iru xqhpsor|hg shrsoh iroorzhg e| pdujlqdolvhg lqglylg0 xdov dqg qdoo| lqglylgxdov rxwvlgh oderxu irufh1 Diwhu rqh |hdu wklv udqnlqj vwd|v xqdhfwhg exw wkh glhuhqfhv lq wkh hpsor|phqw suredelolw| ehwzhhq wkh vwdwhv jurz odujhu1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq grhv uhyhdo vrph lqwhuhvwlqj srlqwv zklfk grhv qrw dsshdu lq wkh dyhudjh wudqvlwlrq vkduhv glvsod|hg lq jxuh

66

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Wdeoh <= Hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri d Pxowlqrpldo Orjlw prgho ri lqglylgxdov wudq0 vlwlrqv vwdwhv frqglwlrqhg rq ghsduwxuh vwdwhv dqg rwkhu fryduldwhv1

Diwhu d txduwhu |hdu

Yduldeohv gs2g{ Vw1huuru1 gs2g{ Vw1huuru

Su+Hpsor|hg, @ 314;:: 3158:<

Xqhpsor|hg 315653 313457 316643 313479

Pdujlqdolvhg 31395: 313457 31475; 31347<

Pdoh 313659 3133;: 313744 31343:

48Djh 63 314656 313454 314;64 313474

63Djh 93 0314359 3133<9 0314;76 313436 93^{Djh :3} ^03144<9 3133<< 0315849 313433 Su+Xqhpsor|hg, @ 314679 313<99

Xqhpsor|hg 3175<8 313469 31559: 313469 Pdujlqdolvhg 314;55 31348; 314565 31346;

Pdoh 31359; 31339< 313396 31338;

48Djh 63 0313588 3133:4 0313534 313396 63Djh 93 0313745 3133:4 031363; 313393 93Djh :3 0314659 3133:5 031454; 313394 Su+Pdujlqdolvhg, @ 314767 313<47

Xqhpsor|hg 0313634 313398 313436 31339;

Pdujlqdolvhg 313;:: 313439 31384< 3133;:

Pdoh 03133:7 31339; 03133<< 313389

48Djh 63 313783 3133;6 313788 3133:9

63Djh 93 031439: 3133:4 0313:;9 313396 93Djh :3 0315397 313398 0314769 31338:

Su+rxwvlgh, @ 318676 318874

Xqhpsor|hg 0319647 3133;9 03189;3 313443 Pdujlqdolvhg 0316659 31345< 03164:< 31347:

Pdoh 0313853 31345< 03136:8 313474

48Djh 63 031484: 31348; 03153;8 3134:3 63Djh 93 315838 313473 315<6: 313468

93Djh :3 3178;8 313456 3184:3 313446

67

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68

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69