• Ingen resultater fundet

Public policy for start-up entrepreneurship with venture capital and bank finance

N/A
N/A
Info
Hent
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Del "Public policy for start-up entrepreneurship with venture capital and bank finance"

Copied!
39
0
0

Indlæser.... (se fuldtekst nu)

Hele teksten

(1)

Public policy for start-up entrepreneurship with venture capital and bank finance

Keuschnigg, Christian; Nielsen, Søren Bo

Document Version Final published version

Publication date:

2003

License CC BY-NC-ND

Citation for published version (APA):

Keuschnigg, C., & Nielsen, S. B. (2003). Public policy for start-up entrepreneurship with venture capital and bank finance.

Link to publication in CBS Research Portal

General rights

Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.

Take down policy

If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us (research.lib@cbs.dk) providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

Download date: 31. Oct. 2022

(2)

P UBLIC P OLICY FOR S TART - UP E NTREPRENEURSHIP WITH V ENTURE C APITAL AND B ANK F INANCE

CHRISTIAN K EUSCHNIGG

S OREN B O N IELSEN

CES IFO W ORKING P APER N O . 850

C

ATEGORY

1: P

UBLIC

F

INANCE

J

ANUARY

2003

P

RESENTED AT

CES

IFO

C

ONFERENCE ON

V

ENTURE

C

APITAL

, E

NTREPRENEURSHIP

,

AND

P

UBLIC

P

OLICY

, N

OVEMBER

2002

An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded

• from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com

• from the CESifo website: www.CESifo.de

(3)

CESifo Working Paper No. 850

P UBLIC P OLICY FOR S TART - UP

E NTREPRENEURSHIP WITH V ENTURE

C APITAL AND B ANK F INANCE Abstract

This paper proposes and analyses a model of start-up investment. Innovative entrepreneurs are commercially inexperienced and can benefit from venture capital support. Only part of them succeed in matching with a venture capitalist while the rest must resort to standard bank finance. We consider a number of policies to promote entrepreneurship and venture capital backed innovation.

JEL Classification: D82, G24, G28, H24.

Keywords: venture capital bank finance, matching, moral hazard, public policy.

Christian Keuschnigg University of St. Gallen

Varnbuelstrasse 19 CH – 9000 St. Gallen

Switzerland

christian.keuschnigg@unisg.ch

Soren Bo Nielsen Copenhagen Business School

Solbjerg Plads 3 DK-2000 Frederiksberg

Denmark sbn.eco@cbs.dk

We thank our discussant on CESifo conference on Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, Rune Stenbacka, and other participants for comments. We are also grateful for comments in a research seminar at WZB in Berlin. EPRU is financed by a grant from The Danish National Research Foundation.

(4)

4 Lqwurgxfwlrq

Phdvxuhg dv d shufhqwdjh ri JGS/ lqyhvwphqwv lq lqqrydwlyh qhz upv duh qrw odujh1 Qhlwkhu lv wkh qxpehu ri whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv1 Lq whupv ri ohqglqj yroxph/ yhqwxuh fdslwdo lv qr pruh exw d vpdoo vhjphqw ri wkh qdqfldo lqwhuphgldwlrq vhfwru1 Krzhyhu/

yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg lqyhvwphqw lv glvsursruwlrqdwho| lpsruwdqw iru hfrqrp| zlgh lq0 qrydwlrq dqg hpsor|phqw1 Nruwxp dqg Ohuqhu +5333, fdofxodwhg wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg upv dffrxqw iru derxw 47 shufhqw ri lqgxvwuldo lqqrydwlrq lq wkh XV lq 4<<;/

dowkrxjk wkh| vshqg rqo| derxw 6 shufhqw ri doo uhvhdufk dqg ghyhorsphqw ixqgv1 Pdq|

ri wrgd|*v ohdglqj whfkqrorj| upv vwduwhg rxw dv vpdoo yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg frpsdqlhv1 Lw lv h{shfwhg wkdw wkh prvw vxffhvvixo ri wrgd|*v yhqwxuhv zloo jurz udslgo| wr ehfrph nh| sod|huv lq lpsruwdqw lqqrydwlrq0edvhg lqgxvwulhv dqg eh wrpruurz*v pdmru upv lq whupv ri ydoxh fuhdwlrq dqg mrev1 Iru wkhvh uhdvrqv/ wkh exvlqhvv frppxqlw| wdnhv juhdw lqwhuhvw lq wkh zhoo0ehlqj ri hqwuhsuhqhxuldo upv1 Srolf| pdnhuv olnhzlvh zruu| derxw wkh hfrqrp|*v delolw| wr lqqrydwh dqg wkhuhe| jhqhudwh jurzwk dqg hpsor|phqw1

Krzhyhu/ srolf| pdnhuv dqg exvlqhvvphq riwhq txhvwlrq zkhwkhu wkh exvlqhvv dqg srolf| folpdwh lv vx!flhqwo| frqgxflyh wr vxffhvvixo lqqrydwlyh dfwlylw|1 Vxuho|/ wkh ruljlq ri lqgxvwuldo lqqrydwlrq lv edvlf vflhqfh1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv dqg |rxqj whfkqrorj| upv whqg wr eh jhrjudsklfdoo| frqfhqwudwhg lq pdmru fhqwhuv ri dfdghplf dqg lqgxvwuldo uhvhdufk1 Edvlf uhvhdufk dqg ghyhorsphqw/ krzhyhu/ lv qrw hdvlo| dqg fhuwdlqo| qrw dxwrpdwlfdoo| wudqvodwhg lqwr frpphufldo vxffhvv1 D srolf| vwudwhj| iru lqqrydwlrq edvhg jurzwk pxvw wkxv dgguhvv d qxpehu ri nh| txhvwlrqv= Duh wkhuh vx!flhqw lqfhqwlyhv iru lqqrydwruv wr vwduw wkhlu rzq vpdoo whfkqrorj| frpsdq|B Grhv wd{ srolf|

vfduh dzd| shrsoh zlwk exvlqhvv lghdv ru suhyhqw wkhp iurp sxuvxlqj wkhvh lghdv lq wkhlu rzq frpsdq|B Duh wkhuh hqrxjk ixqgv dydlodeoh iru zrxog0eh hqwuhsuhqhxuvB

\rxqj lqqrydwlyh upv qhhg pruh wkdq mxvw fdslwdo1 Lq frqwudvw wr wkhlu frpshwhqfh lq uhvhdufk dqg ghyhorsphqw/ srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv whqg wr eh udwkhu lqh{sh0 ulhqfhg lq frpphufldo pdwwhuv1 Gr hqwuhsuhqhxuv uhfhlyh hqrxjk jxlgdqfh wr vxffhvvixoo|

ghyhors wkhlu lghdv lqwr d pdunhw vxffhvvB Lq vkruw/ |rxqj whfkqrorj| upv qhhg dffhvv 4

(5)

wr lqiruphg fdslwdo dv lv surylghg qrw e| edqnv exw e| exvlqhvv dqjhov dqg yhqwxuh fds0 lwdo upv zlwk vshfldo pdunhw nqrzohgjh dqg pdqdjhuldo nqrzkrz1 Wkh sulph srolf|

txhvwlrq lv zkhwkhu wkhuh lv dq| qhhg iru jryhuqphqw wr surprwh yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg exvlqhvv fuhdwlrq dqg hqfrxudjh wkh dfwlylwlhv ri yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv eh|rqg zkdw wkh pdunhw dfklhyhv rq lwv rzq1

Wkh sxeolf vhfwru lv lqyroyhg lq qhz upv lq pdq| zd|v1 Frqvlghu wkh fdvh ri Ghqpdun/

iru looxvwudwlrq1 Iluvw/ edvlf uhvhdufk lq xqlyhuvlwlhv dqg rwkhu uhvhdufk fhqwuhv lv doprvw h{foxvlyho| sxeolfo| ixqghg1 Wr vxssruw qhz upv/ d kdqgixo ri cwhfkqrorjlfdo lqvwlwxwhv*

kdyh ehhq iruphg zlwk wkh dlp ri h{whqglqj whfkqlfdo dgylfh wr +prvwo|, qhz upv1 Wkh frqvxowlqj dqg dgylvlqj rq wkh sduw ri wkhvh whfkqrorjlfdo lqvwlwxwhv lv riwhq nh| lq ryhufrplqj whfkqlfdo revwdfohv lq ixuwkhu ghyhorsphqw ri surwrw|shv ru surgxfwv1 Wkhvh lqvwlwxwhv/ krzhyhu/ gr qrw surylgh pdqdjhuldo vxssruw1 Wklv lv ohiw wr exvlqhvv dqjhov dqg yhqwxuh fdslwdo upv li lw kdsshqv dw doo1 Wr irvwhu frrshudwlrq ehwzhhq dxwkrulwlhv/

uhvhdufk fhqwuhv/ xqlyhuvlwlhv/ whfkqrorjlfdo lqvwlwxwhv dqg upv/ vhyhq cvflhqfh sdunv* kdyh ehhq fuhdwhg lq Ghqpdun1 Wkh wudqvihu ri dfdghplf nqrzohgjh wr upv dqg/ wkxv/ wkh frpphulfdol}dwlrq ri vflhqfh/ lv wkh xowlpdwh wdujhw ri wkhvh lqlwldwlyhv1

D sxeolf yhqwxuh fdslwdo up/ wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg/ zdv iruphg lq 4<<51 Lw lv wkh pdmru sxeolf sod|hu lq wkh yhqwxuh fdslwdo exvlqhvv dqg dw wkh vdph wlph dq xpeuhood rujdql}dwlrq iru d vhulhv ri lqlwldwlyhv wrzdugv hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls1 Lwv r!fldo dlp lv wr uhqghu wkh vxsso| ri ulvn fdslwdo lq Ghqpdun pruh vwdeoh dqg pdnh lw hdvlhu iru qhz upv wr pdqdjh d grzqwxuq lq wkh hfrqrp|1 Lwv lqlwldo fdslwdo zdv 5 eloo1 GNN +d elw ohvv wkdq 633 ploo1 Hxur, zklfk zdv sodfhg lq erqgv1 Wkh erqg uhwxuq lv dydlodeoh iru lqyhvwphqwv lq qhz upv1 Wkh sulydwh yhqwxuh fdslwdo dfwlylw| lv qrwrulrxvo| gl!fxow wr sruwud| vwdwlvwlfdoo|1 Lq Ghqpdun/ wkh ixqgv rzlqj lqwr yhqwxuh fdslwdo frph iurp vhyhudo vrxufhv1 Durxqg rqh whqwk lv sxeolf ixqgv/ sulpdulo| iurp wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg1 Dffruglqj wr dydlodeoh gdwd/ wkhvh sulpdulo| jr lqwr hduo|0vwdjh qdqflqj +vhhg ru vwduw0xs, zkhuhdv rwkhu ixqgv/

qrwdeo| iurp lqvwlwxwlrqdo lqyhvwruv dqg frusrudwh yhqwxuh upv/ duh frqfhqwudwhg lq odwhu

5

(6)

+h{sdqvlrq, vwdjhv14 Lq dgglwlrq wr ixqglqj hduo| vwdjh upv/ wkh Jurzwk Ixqg kdv vhw xs wkh vr0fdoohg cJurzwk Froodwhudo* lqlwldwlyh zklfk vkduhv fuhglw ulvn zlwk edqnv lq ohqglqj wr vpdoo upv1 Vrph clqqrydwlrq frpsdqlhv* kdyh ehhq hvwdeolvkhg mrlqwo| zlwk sulydwh lqyhvwruv wr surprwh lqqrydwlrq lq kljk0whfk vwduw0xsv1 Wkh Jurzwk Ixqg kdv dovr lvvxhg jxdudqwhhv wr fhuwdlq cghyhorsphqw frpsdqlhv* wkdw vshfldol}h lq vpdoo dqg phglxp0vl}hg hqwhusulvhv1 Ilqdoo|/ lw kdv vhw xs clqqrydwlrq hqylurqphqwv* riwhq qhdu vflhqfh sdunv1 Wkhvh lqqrydwlrq hqylurqphqwv fdq surylgh suh0surmhfw fdslwdo dqg r!fh vsdfh dqg irvwhu frrshudwlrq zlwk +sulydwh, yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv1

Rxwvlgh ri Wkh Jurzwk Ixqg/ sxeolf ixqgv kdyh ehhq lqmhfwhg lqwr d cPh}}dqlqh Fdslwdo Frpsdq|* +PFF,1 Ph}}dqlqh fdslwdo vwdqgv iru d k|eulg ri ghew dqg htxlw|

fdslwdo1 Wkh hqwhusulvh uhfhlylqj fdslwdo lv irufhg wr lqfrusrudwh1 Qr fhglqj ri frqwuro dqg qr froodwhudo lv uhtxhvwhg dqg wkh lqwhuhvw rq wkh fdslwdo lqmhfwlrq lv vhw wr eh d ixqfwlrq ri frpsdq| lqfrph1 Dorqjvlgh sxeolf fdslwdo/ wkhuh duh dovr sulydwh ixqgv lq wkh PFF1 D vr0fdoohg cGdqlvk Dxwkrul}hg Pdunhw Sodfh* kdv ehhq vhw xs/ wrr1 Wklv lv lqwhqghg wr rujdql}h dq dowhuqdwlyh pdunhw iru vkduhv lq qrq0wudghg frpsdqlhv dqg vr idflolwdwh ixuwkhu h{sdqvlrq ri qhz frpsdqlhv1

Duh frqglwlrqv iru vhwwlqj xs qhz lqqrydwlyh upv lq Ghqpdun vdwlvidfwru|B Uhfhqwo|/

wkh ohdglqj Gdqlvk exvlqhvv qhzvsdshu srvwxodwhg=5 Ghqpdun qhhgv pruh exvlqhvv dq0 jhov1 Shuvrqv zkr duh uhdg| wr qrw rqo| h{whqg ulvn fdslwdo exw dovr sxw iruwk dq hruw lq wkrvh vwduw0xsv zkr zloo eh wkh cjd}hoohv* ri wkh ixwxuh dqg fuhdwh ydoxh lq Gdqlvk exvlqhvv1 Wkh duwlfoh ixuwkhu vwuhvvhg wkdw lw lv qhfhvvdu| wr doohyldwh wkh wd{ exughq rq Gdqhv vr wkdw wkh| zloo eh deoh wr vdyh pruh dqg hlwkhu vwduw d qhz exvlqhvv wkhpvhoyhv ru ehfrph exvlqhvv dqjhov1

Lq wklv frqwh{w exvlqhvv dqjhov duh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh ri doo w|shv ri djhqwv wkdw duh deoh wr surylgh lqiruphg hduo|0vwdjh fdslwdo wr qhz exvlqhvvhv1 Dw odwhu vwdjhv/ edqn rzqhg

4D uhfhqw uhsruw qgv wkdw 45 sfw1 ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo ixqgv frph iurp sxeolf vrxufhv1 Wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg lv wkh pdlq frqwulexwru zlwk <1; sfw1 Qrwh/ krzhyhu/ wkdw wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg dqg rwkhu sxeolf vrxufhv vwdqg iru 87 sfw1 ri vhhg lqyhvwphqwv1 Vhh Wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg +5335,1

5Hglwruldo froxpq lq Erhuvhq/ Vhswhpehu 4</ 5335/ s1 51

6

(7)

sulydwh htxlw| frpsdqlhv duh uhdg| wr wdnh ryhu vxffhvvixo |rxqj exvlqhvvhv dqg csdfndjh*

wkhp iru lqvwlwxwlrqdo lqyhvwruv1 Dowkrxjk Wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg +5335, uhsruwv wkdw wrwdo vhhg lqyhvwphqwv lq Ghqpdun kdyh jrqh xs e| 4;3 sfw1 iurp 5333 wr 5334/ wkh suhgrplqdqw ylhz vhhpv wr eh wkdw hduo|0vwdjh yhqwxuh fdslwdo qdqflqj lv vwloo wrr vfdufh1 Edvhg rq d vhulhv ri lqwhuylhzv frqgxfwhg odvw |hdu zlwk vxssruw iurp wkh Gdqlvk Jurzwk Ixqg zlwk wkh sod|huv lq wkh exvlqhvv +yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv dqg dgylvruv,/ Mhqvhq dqg Ylqwhujddug +5335, lghqwlhg ixuwkhu srvvleoh eduulhuv wr hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls lq Ghqpdun1 Wkh hfrqrplf grzqwxuq dqg/ lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh gurs lq vkduh sulfhv/ zhuh frqvlghuhg d vshfldo revwdfoh1 Ixuwkhu/ wkh revhuyhuv srlqwhg wr d odfnlqj hqwuhsuhqhxuldo fxowxuh dqg wrr ihz exvlqhvv sodqv wrjhwkhu zlwk wrr olwwoh sxeolfo| ixqghg +edvlf, uhvhdufk1 Odvwo|/

wkh vwuxfwxuh ri shuvrqdo wd{dwlrq dqg wkh wd{ wuhdwphqw ri vwrfn rswlrqv zhuh olvwhg dv idfwruv frqvwlwxwlqj d eduulhu wr hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls1

Wkh jhqhudo grzqwxuq lq wkh zruog hfrqrp| ryhu wkh odvw frxsoh ri |hduv lv kdugo|

vrphwklqj wkdw sxeolf lqqrydwlrq srolf| fdq uhphg|16 Wkh rwkhu ghwhuplqdqwv ri lqqryd0 wlyh dfwlylw| vxfk dv wkh h{whqw ri edvlf uhvhdufk/ sxeolf frqvxowlqj/ wudlqlqj dqg dgylvlqj dfwlylw|/ sxeolf ixqglqj ri hduo|0vwdjh exvlqhvvhv/ dqg wd{ srolf| reylrxvo| duh lq wkh uhdop ri srolwlfdo ghflvlrqv1 Wkh| pdwfk d vhulhv ri riwhq0yrlfhg dujxphqwv iru sxeolf lq0 whuihuhqfh= wkh sxeolf jrrg fkdudfwhu dqg srvlwlyh vslooryhuv ri uhvhdufk dqg ghyhorsphqw/

wkh glvvhplqdwlrq ri whfkqrorjlfdo nqrzohgjh +vshfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ qhwzrunv,/ odfnlqj ulvn fdslwdo/ odfnlqj lqfhqwlyhv iru vhoi0hpsor|hg hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls/ odfnlqj lqfhqwlyhv ri hq0 wuhsuhqhxuv lq ixuwkhu h{sdqvlrq ri wkh up/ dqg odfnlqj lqfhqwlyhv iru forvh lqyroyhphqw ri lqiruphg qdqflhuv lq wkhlu sruwirolr frpsdqlhv1

Wklv sdshu glvfxvvhv vrph nh| srolf| vwudwhjlhv wrzdugv wkh fuhdwlrq ri lqqrydwlyh exvl0 qhvvhv1 Zh dlp wr xqghuvwdqg wkh phfkdqlvpv zklfk ghwhuplqh ryhudoo hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls dv zhoo dv wkh ghjuhh ri lqyroyhphqw ri yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv1 Wkh iudphzrun ri dqdo|vlv lv d vlpsoh vhwwlqj lq zklfk d vpdoohu sduw ri hqwuhsuhqhxuv rewdlq qdqflqj dqg vxssruw iurp

6Iruwxqdwho|/ wkh prvw uhfhqw lqirupdwlrq hphujlqj iurp d frqihuhqfh rq rssruwxqlwlhv iru exvlqhvv dqjhov lq Ghqpdun xqghuvfruhv wkdw wkh vorzgrzq kdv qrw h{wlqjxlvkhg hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls1 Wkhuh duh vwloo pdq| uhiuhvklqj exvlqhvv lghdv/ dowkrxjk lqirupdwlrq whfkqrorj| qrz lv d qrwdeoh h{fhswlrq1

7

(8)

yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv zkloh wkh uhpdlqlqj pdmrulw| pxvw uhvruw wr vwdqgdug edqn qdqfh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ rxu iudphzrun lqfoxghv wkh vw|ol}hg idfw wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg upv fohduo| rxwshuirup rwkhu vwduw0xsv wkdw uho| rq sdvvlyh edqn qdqflqj rqo|1 Zh dvvxph wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg vwduw0xsv/ zkhq vxffhvvixo/ surgxfh dqg vhoo jrrgv ri kljkhu txdolw| dqg wkhuhe| vljqlfdqwo| hduq pruh wkdq rwkhu edqn qdqfhg upv1 Wklv suhplxp uh hfwv wkh ydoxh dgghg ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo ryhu edqn qdqfh1

Wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh lv txlwh fohdu rq wklv1 Lq frpsdulqj yhqwxuh dqg qrq0yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg upv/ Eudy dqg Jrpshuv +4<<:, grfxphqw wkdw wkh odwwhu upv jhqhudoo|

xqghushuirup uhodwlyh wr wkh iruphu lq wkh orqjhu uxq1 Khoopdqq dqg Sxul +5335, vkrz wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg vwduw0xsv lq Vlolfrq Ydooh| duh pxfk idvwhu lq lqwurgxflqj vwrfn rswlrq sodqv iru vnloohg shuvrqqho dqg lq klulqj d surihvvlrqdo vdohv pdqdjhu1 Dovr/

wkh suhvhqfh ri d yhqwxuh fdslwdolvw pdnhv lw pruh olnho| wkdw wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu lv uhsodfhg e| d surihvvlrqdo FHR iurp rxwvlgh li khu odfn ri pdqdjhuldo delolwlhv wxuqv rxw wr eh dq lpshglphqw wr wkh up*v udslg jurzwk1 Wkh yhqwxuh fdslwdolvw*v lq xhqfh lv sduwlfxoduo|

vwurqj lq wkh hduo| skdvh ri exvlqhvv ghyhorsphqw exw lv frqvlghudeo| ohvv ylvleoh rqfh wkh up kdv vxffhvvixoo| pdwxuhg1 Lq vkruw/ yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv dgg ydoxh lq surprwlqj wkh surihvvlrqdol}dwlrq ri |rxqj upv1 Khoopdqq dqg Sxul +5333, ixuwkhu vkrz wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg upv lqwurgxfh pruh udglfdo lqqrydwlrqv dqg sxuvxh pruh djjuhvvlyh pdu0 nhw vwudwhjlhv frpsduhg wr rwkhu vwduw0xsv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ rqfh d yhqwxuh fdslwdolvw mrlqv wkh up dqg surylghv qdqfh/ wkh suredelolw| ri lqwurgxflqj wkh qhz surgxfw rq wkh pdu0 nhw mxpsv xs e| d idfwru ri pruh wkdq wkuhh1 Udslg pdunhw lqwurgxfwlrq lv vwudwhjlfdoo|

lpsruwdqw ehfdxvh wkh uvw up lq wkh pdunhw hqmr|v d uvw pryhu dgydqwdjh1 Nruwxp dqg Ohuqhu +5333, vlploduo| vkrz wkdw d Groodu ri uhvhdufk dqg ghyhorsphqw lq upv zlwk yhqwxuh fdslwdo vxssruw fuhdwhv pruh sdwhqwv dqg pruh udglfdo lqqrydwlrqv wkdq wkh vdph h{shqglwxuh lq rwkhu upv1 Wklv hpslulfdo hylghqfh fohduo| vxssruwv wkh qrwlrq wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo vljqlfdqwo| surprwhv lqqrydwlrq dqg exvlqhvv jurzwk1

Wkh vxffhvv ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo fdqqrw eh wdnhq iru judqwhg/ krzhyhu1 Dowkrxjk wkh yroxph ri ixqgv udlvhg dqg lqyhvwhg juhz gudpdwlfdoo| lq wkh odwh <3v/ wkh pdunhw lv vwloo

8

(9)

pxfk vpdoohu lq Hxursh1 D uhfhqw hpslulfdo vwxg| e| Erwwd}}l dqg Gd Ulq +5335, lqyhv0 wljdwhg wkh shuirupdqfh ri upv lqwurgxfhg rq wkh Hxurshdq whfkqrorj| vwrfn pdunhwv Hxur1qp dqg irxqg wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg upv kdyh qrw jurzq vljqlfdqwo| idvwhu dqg kdyh qrw shuiruphg ehwwhu wkdq rwkhu upv1 Wkh| frqfoxgh wkdw wkh txdolw| ri lq0 yhvwphqwv lq Hxursh lv d pruh xujhqw sureohp wkdq wkh vkhhu yroxph ri ixqgv lqyhvwhg1 Lv wklv hylghqfh d uh hfwlrq ri pdunhw idloxuhB Lq rxu iudphzrun/ dqg lq olqh zlwk wkh deryh flwhg hpslulfdo hylghqfh/ qrw rqo| wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu exw dovr wkh yhqwxuh fdslwdolvw pxvw sxw xs hruw wr dgydqfh wkh up*v survshfwv1 Vlqfh erwk lqsxwv duh odujho| lqwdqjleoh dqg qrw yhuli|deoh/ wkh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq dq hqwuhsuhqhxu dqg d yhqwxuh fdslwdolvw hdvlo| vxhuv iurp vr0fdoohg grxeoh prudo kd}dug1 Dffruglqjo|/ wkh htxlw| vkduhv pxvw eh fduhixoo|

vsolw wr vhw lqfhqwlyhv iru erwk sduwlhv1 Zkhq erwk sduwlhv pxvw vkduh wkh pdujlqdo uhwxuq zkloh hdfk rqh ehduv wkh hqwluh pdujlqdo frvw ri h{wud hruw/ d qdwxudo lqfhqwlyh sureohp dulvhv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh h{shfw d eldv wrzdugv orz pdqdjhuldo vxssruw rq wkh sduw ri yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv1 Wkh lqgxvwu| kdv ghyhorshg vrsklvwlfdwhg qdqfldo lqvwuxphqwv vxfk dv frqyhuwleoh vhfxulwlhv dqg doorfdwlrq ri frqwuro uljkwv wkdw pljkw khos wr doohyldwh vxfk lqfhqwlyh sureohpv17 Krzhyhu/ dv orqj dv erwk sduwlhv pxvw vlpxowdqhrxvo| vxsso| d mrlqw hruw/ wkh wzr0vlghg prudo kd}dug zloo qrw glvdsshdu frpsohwho|1 Krz lv lw wkhq srvvleoh wr vwuhqjwkhq wkh lqfhqwlyhv ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo upv wr vxssruw dqg dgylvh wkhlu sruwirolr frpsdqlhv pruh lqwhqvlyho|B

Dqrwkhu lpshglphqw wr wkh ghyhorsphqw ri d yleudqw yhqwxuh fdslwdo lqgxvwu| pljkw eh wklq pdunhw h{whuqdolwlhv1 Lq wkh uhdo zruog/ wkh olqnlqj ri lqiruphg fdslwdo dqg shrsoh zlwk exvlqhvv lghdv lv idu iurp d vlpsoh surfhvv1 Vlqfh hqwuhsuhqhxuv dqg qdqflhuv pxvw yhu| forvho| frrshudwh rqfh wkh| hqwhu d uhodwlrqvkls/ hdfk vlgh vkrxog eh vhohfwlqj yhu|

fduhixoo| dprqj wkh srwhqwldo fdqglgdwhv1 Wklv vxjjhvwv d frvwo| vhdufk hruw rq erwk vlghv18 Lq rxu iudphzrun/ zh wkhuhiruh wklqn ri wkh frqwdfw ehwzhhq hqwuhsuhqhxuv dqg yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv dv uhvxowlqj iurp d pdwfklqj surfhvv1 Dffruglqjo|/ rqo| d plqrulw| ri hqwuhsuhqhxuv vxffhhg lq ehlqj pdwfkhg zlwk yhqwxuh fdslwdo1 Wkh uhpdlqghu pxvw uho|

7Vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Vfkplgw +5335, iru vxfk dq dujxphqw1

8Vfuhhqlqj lv dv lpsruwdqw dv qdqfldo frqwudfwlqj dqg dgylfh/ vhh Ndsodq dqg Vwuùpehuj +5334,1

9

(10)

rq edqn qdqfh ru uhwxuq wr hpsor|phqw lq lqgxvwu|1 Wkh pdwfklqj surfhvv pljkw uhvxow lq dqrwkhu glvwruwlrq wkdw frxog mxvwli| d srolf| lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Wklv dujxphqw/ krzhyhu/

grhv qrw dxwrpdwlfdoo| fuhdwh d fdvh iru vxevlgl}lqj wkh lqgxvwu|1 Li wkh edujdlqlqj srzhu lv glvwulexwhg dprqj hqwuhsuhqhxuv dqg yhqwxuh fdslwdolvwv lq olqh zlwk wkhlu hhfwlyh0 qhvv lq jhqhudwlqj d pdwfk/ wkh vhdufk htxloleulxp lv dfwxdoo| h!flhqw19 Krzhyhu/ li wkh yhqwxuh fdslwdolvw*v edujdlqlqj srvlwlrq lv wrr zhdn uhodwlyh wr wkh hqwuhsuhxu*v srvlwlrq/

wkhq khu vhdufk hruw zloo eh lqh!flhqwo| orz/ dqg vkh zloo whqg wr dq ryhuo| vpdoo qxp0 ehu ri sruwirolr frpsdqlhv1 Khu vhdufk hruw vkrxog wkhq eh hqfrxudjhg e| dssursuldwh wd{ lqfhqwlyhv ru vxevlglhv1 Wkh frqyhuvh krogv li vkh lv hqgrzhg zlwk dq ryhuo| vwurqj edujdlqlqj srvlwlrq1

Zkloh erwk w|shv ri glvwruwlrqv/ lq sulqflsoh/ fdoo iru srolf| lqwhuyhqwlrq wr lpsuryh xsrq wkh sulydwh yhqwxuh fdslwdo htxloleulxp/ wkh lqirupdwlrq uhtxluhphqwv iru wkh jryhuq0 phqw duh txlwh iruplgdeoh1 Lw lv wkxv dgplwwhg wkdw wkhvh lqvljkwv gr qrw uhdglo| wudqvodwh lqwr sudfwlfdo srolf| suhvfulswlrqv wkdw frxog eh pdgh ghshqgdqw rq hdvlo| lghqwlhg pdu0 nhw frqglwlrqv1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ zh frqvlghu lw dq lqirupdwlyh h{huflvh wr fkhfn wkh zhoiduh frqvhtxhqfhv ri vrph ri wkh riwhq sursrvhg srolf| lqlwldwlyhv zlwklq rxu iudphzrun ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo edfnhg lqyhvwphqw1 Wkh olwhudwxuh kdv odujho| qhjohfwhg dq h{solflw sro0 lf| dqdo|vlv ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo1 Wkh ihz frqwulexwlrqv wkdw gr h{lvw lq wklv duhd duh qrw edvhg rq d irupdo sulqflsdo djhqw prgho ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo wkdw sd|v gxh uhvshfw wr wkh lqfhqwlyh sureohpv lq wklv exvlqhvv1: Krzhyhu/ zh gudz xsrq dqg h{whqg rxu rzq uhfhqw zrun rq wd{ srolf| wrzdugv yhqwxuh fdslwdo e| lqwurgxflqj d vhdufk prgho ri yhqwxuh fdslwdo qdqfh dqg doorzlqj iru wkh vlpxowdqhrxv h{lvwhqfh ri edqn dqg yhqwxuh fdsl0 wdo edfnhg hqwuhsuhqhxuv1; Zlwklq wklv h{whqghg iudphzrun/ zh lqyhvwljdwh wkh hhfwv ri gluhfwo| surgxfwlyh jryhuqphqw dfwlylwlhv dv zhoo dv wd{hv dqg vxevlglhv rq wkh txdo0 lw| dqg txdqwlw| ri vwduw0xs hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls lq lqgxvwu| htxloleulxp1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh

9Wkh pdwfklqj +lq0,h!flhqf| kdv ehhq txlwh lqwhqvlyho| glvfxvvhg lq wkh oderu pdunhw olwhudwxuh/ vhh Krvlrv +4<<3, iru wkh nh| frqwulexwlrq dqg Errqh dqg Eryhqehuj +5335, iru d uhfhqw rswlpdo wd{dwlrq dqdo|vlv zlwk vhdufk iulfwlrqv1

:Vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Srwhued +4<;<d/e,/ Jrugrq +4<<;, dqg Jrpshuv dqg Ohuqhu +4<<;,1

;Vhh Nhxvfkqljj +5335f, dqg Nhxvfkqljj dqg Qlhovhq +5334d/e/ 5335,1

:

(11)

frqvlghu d jryhuqphqw vwlpxoxv wr edvlf uhvhdufk wr h{sdqg wkh vxsso| ri srwhqwldo whfk0 qrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv/ jryhuqphqw wudlqlqj ri vwduw0xs hqwuhsuhqhxuv/ vxevlglhv wr sk|vlfdo lqyhvwphqw frvw/ dqg fdslwdo jdlqv wd{dwlrq1

Wkh sdshu qrz surfhhgv lq vhfwlrq 5 e| jlylqj d jhqhudo ryhuylhz ri rxu dqdo|wlfdo iudphzrun1 Vhfwlrq 6 wxuqv wr wkh glvfxvvlrq ri d vhulhv ri srolf| h{shulphqwv1 Vhfwlrq 7 frqfoxghv1 Wkh suhvhqwdwlrq ri wkh prgho lv odujho| lqirupdo1 Wkh pdlq sxusrvh ri wklv sdshu lv wr kljkoljkw wkh nh| hfrqrplf lqvljkwv dqg srolf| lpsolfdwlrqv1 Zh uhihu wkh pruh irupdoo| lqwhuhvwhg uhdghu wr d vhsdudwh pdwkhpdwlfdo dsshqgl{1

5 D Iudp hzrun ri Dqdo|vlv

514 Wkh Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh

Rxu dqdo|vlv vwduwv zlwk wkh suhvxpswlrq wkdw yhqwxuh fdslwdo +YF, lv d udwkhu vfdufh uhvrxufh dqg lv vshfldol}hg lq qdqflqj lqqrydwlyh vwduw0xs upv zlwk kljk srwhqwldo exw kljk ulvn1 Wkdw YFv duh lq {hg vxsso| uh hfwv wkh qrwlrq wkdw YF qdqfh uhtxluhv xqltxh lqyhvwphqw vnloov wkdw uh hfw ghwdlohg lqgxvwu| nqrzohgjh/ shuvrqdo pdqdjhuldo h{shulhqfh dqg d jrrg uhsxwdwlrq1 Vxfk vnloov fdqqrw eh dftxluhg lq vkruw rughu1 Lw wdnhv |hduv wr ghyhors wkh vshfldol}hg nqrzkrz dqg h{shulhqfh dqg wkh uhsxwdwlrq qhhghg iru vxffhvvixo frdfklqj ri |rxqj upv1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ hyhq lq wkh lqqrydwlrq0edvhg lqgxvwulhv rqo| d plqrulw| ri upv duh deoh wr dwwudfw YF zkloh wkh pdmrulw| pxvw uho| rq vwdqgdug edqn qdqfh1 Krz wkh pdunhw lv vsolw ehwzhhq YF dqg edqn qdqfhg upv/ lv dq lpsruwdqw exw uhodwlyho| olwwoh h{soruhg txhvwlrq1< Dffruglqj wr rxu rzq dssurdfk/ doo whfkqrorj|

hqwuhsuhqhxuv idyru YF qdqfh ehfdxvh lw dggv ydoxh1 Jlyhq wkh olplwhg qxpehu ri YF upv/ hqwuhsuhqhxuv duh wkxv udwlrqhg lq wkhlu dffhvv wr YF1 Wkh suredelolw| ri orfdwlqj

<Wkh glvfxvvlrq lq Eodfn dqg Jlovrq +4<<;, lv pdlqo| derxw wkh uhodwlyh dgydqwdjhv ri d vwrfn pdunhw fhqwhuhg ru edqn fhqwhuhg qdqfldo v|vwhp iru wkh ghyhorsphqw ri d yhqwxuh fdslwdo lqgxvwu| exw grhv qrw h{sodlq krz wkh pdunhw iru vwduw0xs qdqfh lv vkduhg dprqj edqnv dqg YFv1 Vhh Glhw} +5335,/ Vwureho +5335, dqg Xhgd +5335, iru dowhuqdwlyh dssurdfkhv wr pdunhw vhjphqwdwlrq1

;

(12)

d zloolqj YF uh hfwv wkh ghjuhh ri pdunhw wljkwqhvv1 Dffhvv wr YF qdqfh lv wkxv vhhq dv wkh rxwfrph ri d vhdufk dqg pdwfklqj surfhvv1 Exloglqj rq rxu rzq suhylrxv zrun lq Nhxvfkqljj dqg Qlhovhq +5335,/ zh h{whqg wkh uhfhqw zrun ri Lqghuvw dqg P oohu +5335, dqg Plfkhodffl dqg Vxduh} +5335, rq wkh doorfdwlrq ri lqiruphg fdslwdo lq d vhdufk pdunhw exw zh dgglwlrqdoo| lqwurgxfh edqn qdqfh1 Wklv sdshu rqo| vnhwfkhv wkh prgho zlwk dq ryhuzlhz jlyhq lq Er{ 4 dqg irfxvhv pdlqo| rq wkh srolf| lpsolfdwlrqv143

Wr uh hfw wkh vw|ol}hg idfwv/ rxu iudphzrun glylghv wkh hfrqrp| lqwr wzr vhfwruv/

d odujh wudglwlrqdo dqg d vpdoo lqqrydwlyh/ hqwuhsuhqhxuldo vhfwru1 Surgxfwlrq lq wkh wudglwlrqdo vhfwru srvhv qr vshfldo sureohpv dqg ulvnv1 Surgxfwlrq lq wkh lqqrydwlyh vhfwru wdnhv d exvlqhvv lghd zlwk d kljko| xqfhuwdlq rxwfrph1 Vlqfh hqwuhsuhqhxuv duh zhdowk frqvwudlqhg/ vwduw0xs upv uhtxluh h{whuqdo qdqfh wr ixuwkhu ghyhors qhz lghdv1 Li wkh| pdwxuh wr surgxfwlrq vwdjh/ wkh| vxsso| lqqrydwlyh jrrgv wr wkh pdunhw1 Wkhuh duh.7 srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv zkr duh hqgrzhg zlwk d surplvlqj |hw xqwhvwhg exvlqhvv lghd1 Rqo| d plqru sduw . ri wkhp vxffhhgv wr dwwudfw yhqwxuh fdslwdo dqg uhfhlyhv ydoxh hqkdqflqj pdqdjhuldo dgylfh wkdw khosv wkhp wr hduq d suhplxp rq wkh pdunhw1 Dqrwkhu sduw ri vwduw0xsv uhvruwv wr vwdqgdug edqn qdqfh zkloh wkh uhvw/

.7. ri wkhp/ diwhu dq lqlwldo dwwhpsw wr hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls/ uhwxuqv wr hpsor|phqw lq wkh wudglwlrqdo vhfwru1 Wklv +odujh, uhvw ri wkh hfrqrp| surgxfhv d vwdqgdug jrrg dqg devruev doo rwkhu hfrqrplf dfwlylw|1

Dw doo vwdjhv ri vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw/ hqwuhsuhqhxuv pd| dozd|v jlyh xs dqg uhwxuq wr vdih hpsor|phqw lq wkh crog hfrqrp|*1 Wdnlqj dffrxqw ri khu rxwvlgh rswlrq/ d srwhqwldo hqwuhsuhqhxu idfhv wkh iroorzlqj vhtxhqfh ri ghflvlrqv1 Iluvw/ vlqfh YF edfnhg upv |lhog wkh juhdwhvw uhzdug/ doo ri wkh hqwuhsuhqhxuv lqyhvw d vhdufk hruw & wr dfklhyh frqwdfw zlwk rqh ri wkh 8 YFv +lqiruphg Ilqdqflhuv,1 Vhfrqg/ li wklv dwwhpsw idlov/ wkh| hlwkhu uhvruw wr vwdqgdug edqn qdqfh ru hovh uhwxuq wr hpsor|phqw dw zdjh `1 Edqn qdqfh lv phuho| sdvvlyh dqg grhv qrw lqfoxgh dq| vshfldo pdqdjhuldo vxssruw1 Edqnv gr qrw kdyh wkh uhtxluhg nqrzkrz1 Wklug/ li dq hqwuhsuhqhxu lv pdwfkhg zlwk d YF/ wkh| edu0

43D vhsdudwh pdwkhpdwlfdo dsshqgl{ zlwk ixoo dqdo|wlfdo ghwdlov lv dydlodeoh xsrq uhtxhvw1

<

(13)

jdlq ryhu d frqwudfw zkhuh wkh YF ex|v d vkduh r lq wkh up dw d sulfh wkdw fryhuv wkh vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw frvw soxv dq xsiurqw frpshqvdwlrq wr wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu1 Irxuwk/

jlyhq wkh lqfhqwlyhv ghwhuplqhg e| wkh frqwudfw/ erwk hqwuhsuhqhxu dqg YF sxw lq d mrlqw hruw wr ghyhors wkh up wr surgxfwlrq vwdjh1 Wkh YF*v hruw lv rulhqwhg wr frpphufldo dvshfwv wkdw khos wr hduq d suhplxp ryhu wkh vwdqgdug txdolw| ri edqn qdqfhg upv zkloh wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v hruw dlpv dw d kljk vxuylydo fkdqfh1 Ilqdoo|/ diwhu vxffhvv ru idloxuh lv uhdol}hg/ lqfrph lv ghwhuplqhg dqg djhqwv vshqg lw rq frqvxpswlrq1 Ghpdqg iru lqqrydwlyh jrrgv ghwhuplqhv wkh vl}h ri wkh pdunhw iru vwduw0xs hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls1 Er{

4 jlyhv pruh ghwdlov1

Er{ 4= Wkh Irupdo Iudphzrun

Ghpdqg= Iroorzlqj wkh sulqflsoh ri edfnzdug lqgxfwlrq/ zh glvfxvv wkh ghflvlrqv lq uhyhuvh rughu1 Djhqwv vshqg lqfrph | rq wudglwlrqdo dqg lqqrydwlyh jrrgv/ [ dqg J @ tF..F1 H{fhsw iru d txdolw| glhuhqfh ri t A4/ wkh txdqwlwlhv F. dqg F vxssolhg e| YF dqg edqn qdqfhg upv duh shuihfwo| vxevwlwxwdeoh1 Jlyhq wkh txdolw| glhuhqfh/ d YF edfnhg up hduqv d suhplxpt ryhu wkh sulfhY sdlg iru d vwdqgdug txdolw| ri wkh lqqrydwlyh jrrg1 Sulfhv duh wkxv olqnhg e| Y. @ tY1 Wrwdo h{shqglwxuh lv Y.F..Y F @ JY1 Zlwk hruw o douhdg| vxqn/

wkh frqvxpswlrq sureohp lv irupxodwhg dv XW@ pd{

c.cf

x

J

.[o v=w= [.Y J |

= +4,

Edqn Ilqdqfh= Zh frqvlghu wkh hqwuhsuhqhxuv* hruw dv fulwlfdo iru wkh vxffhvv ri d vwduw0xs up1 Lw pd| eh hlwkhu kljk/ h @ 4/ ru orz/ h @ 31 Lq zulwlqj wkh up*v vxffhvv suredelolw|

dv hsf/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkh up dozd|v idlov li wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu vklunv1 Rqo| kljk hruw uhwdlqv d srvlwlyh vxffhvv suredelolw| exw lpsolhv dq hruw frvw 1 Zh ixuwkhu dvvxph wkdw hqwuhsuhqhxuv duh ulvn qhxwudo1 Xqghu edqn qdqfh/ khu sureohp lv wr pd{lpl}h h{shfwhg surw @ hsf+Y G, . z h.Z vxemhfw wr wkh edqn*v euhdn hyhq frqglwlrq hsfG L . z dqg wkh lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqwsf+Y G, 31 Jlyhq wkdw hqwuhsuhqhxuv kdyh qr rzq zhdowk/

vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw frvwLdqg dq| qrq0shuirupdqfh0uhodwhg edvh vdodu|zpxvw eh qdqfhg zlwk

43

(14)

d fuhglw1 Vlqfh wkhuh lv qr uhyhqxh lq fdvh ri idloxuh/ frpshwlwlyh edqnv zloo dffhsw dqg euhdn hyhq rq d plqlpxp h{shfwhg uhsd|phqw ri sfG @ L. z1 Wkh pd{lpxp edvh vdodu| iroorzv iurp wkh idfw wkdw wkh lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqw olplwv wkh pd{lpxp fuhglw uhsd|phqw vxfk wkdw kljk hruw lv dvvxuhg= sf+Y G, @ 31 Kljk hruw udlvhv wkh vxffhvv udwh iurp }hur wr sf1 Wkh lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqw vd|v wkdw wkh uhzdug iru kljk hruw qhw ri hruw frvw pxvw eh dw ohdvw dv jrrg dv wkh ehqhw iurp orz hruw +h@ 3,1 Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh edqn*v euhdn hyhq frqglwlrq/ dqg dqwlflsdwlqj wkdw iuhh hqwu| holplqdwhv dq| h{fhvv vxusoxv ryhu rxwvlgh zdjh lqfrph Z/ d edqn qdqfhg hqwuhsuhqhxu*v h{shfwhg surwv dprxqwv wr

@sfY L @.Z= +5,

Yhqwxuh Fdslwdo Ilqdqfh= Wkh nh| glvwlqfwlrq wr edqn qdqfh lv wkdw YFv dgg ydoxh wr wkh up1 YF dgylvru| hruwdfrqwulexwhv wr kljkhu txdolw|/ doorzlqj wkh up wr hduq d suhplxp t+d, A 4 ryhu wkh jhqhudo pdunhw sulfh Y/ t A 3 A t1 Edqnv vlpso| gr qrw kdyh wkh nqrz0 krz iru ydoxh hqkdqflqj frqvxowlqj1 Dgylfh frphv dw dq lqwdqjleoh pdqdjhuldo hruw frvw d1 Wkh qdqfldo frqwudfw pxvw qrz lqfoxgh lqfhqwlyhv iru erwk lqsxwv wr wkh up*v vxffhvv zklfk uhtxluhv/ lq rxu vlpsoh vhwwlqj/ d vwudljkw htxlw| frqwudfw1 Wkh YF*v zloolqjqhvv wr frqwulexwh frqvxowlqj hruw lqfuhdvhv zlwk khu vkduh 4v lq wkh xsvlgh srwhqwldo ri wkh up1 Vlqfh erwk djhqwv dgg ydoxh/ wkh| erwk kdyh edujdlqlqj srzhu dqg pxvw djuhh rq d pxwxdoo| vdwlvidfwru|

ghdo1 Vlqfh wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu kdv qr rzq prqh|/ wkh YF pxvw sd| iru doo vwduw0xs frvw soxv dq xsiurqw sd|phqw z. wr wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu lq h{fkdqjh iru d vkduh 4v lq wkh up1 Wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu zloo eh lqwhuhvwhg lq YF qdqfh rqo| li lw |lhogv d vxusoxv ryhu wkh qh{w ehvw prgh ri qdqfh/./ zkhuh wkh vdph hruw frvw pxvw eh vshqw xqwhu erwk dowhuqdwlyhv dqg Z douhdg| frpshqvdwhv iru wkh irujrqh zdjh rssruwxqlwlhv1 Wkh qdqflhu*v h{shfwhg surw pxvw uhzdug iru khu pdqdjhuldo hruw frvw=

. @ vsft+d,Y . z. >

8 @ +4v,sft+d,Y L z. d>

" @ sft+d,Y Ld=

+6,

Wkh mrlqw vxusoxv ri wkh yhqwxuh dprxqwv wr" @. .8 ddqg lv vkduhg e| wkh wzr sduwqhuv1 Zkhq wkh YF dqg hqwuhsuhqhxu djuhh rq d vkduhvdqg dq xsiurqw sd|phqwz./ wkhvh ehfrph {hg dqg ghwhuplqh lqfhqwlyhv dw hruw vwdjh1 Wkh| pxvw dqwlflsdwh wkhvh lqfhqwlyhv

44

(15)

zkhq edujdlqlqj ryhu d ghdo1 Jlyhq wkh YF*v edujdlqlqj srzhu ri/ wkhlu sureohp lv pd{rc 7.cec@

.31

8 d1

v=w=

LF. =vsft+d,Y > LF8 = +4v,sft+d,Y @= +7, Lw lv lq wkh mrlqw lqwhuhvw wr pd{lpl}h wkh fdnh e| fkrvlqj d vkduh v ehiruh glvwulexwlqj lw e|

phdqv ri dq xsiurqw sd|phqw z.1 Rqfh wkh frqwudfw lv {hg/ wkh YF frpsduhv khu pdujlqdo hruw frvwzlwk wkh pdujlqdo ehqhw zklfk lv khu vkduh lq wkh h{wud ydoxh fuhdwhg/ dqg fkrrvhv dgylfh dffruglqjo|1 Pdqdjhuldo dgylfh dqg mrlqw vxusoxv lqfuhdvh zlwk wkh YF*v vkduh4v1 Lw lv wkxv lq wkh pxwxdo lqwhuhvw wr djuhh rq wkh orzhvw srvvleoh vkduhvwkdw mxvw vx!fhv wr jxdudqwhh wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v kljk hruw +LF. ehfrphv elqglqj,1 Zlwk surw vkdulqj wkxv ghwhuplqhg/

edujdlqlqj {hv wkh vl}h ri wkh xsiurqw sd|phqw dqg/ wkhuhe|/ vsolwv wkh mrlqw vxusoxv dffruglqj wr edujdlqlqj srzhu/. @ +4," dqg 8 d@"1

Vhdufk Iru d Ghdo= D {hg qxpehu ri I YFv dqg H srwhqwldo hqwuhsuhqhxuv vhdufk iru d ghdo1 Doorzlqj iru dq hqgrjhqrxv vhdufk lqwhqvlw| ri YFv/ wkh| srvw d wrwdo ri yI qdqflqj rhuv1 Wkh qxpehu ri udqgrp pdwfklqjv lv wkh pdvv H ri YF edfnhg upv dqg ghshqgv rq htxloleulxp pdunhw wljkwqhvv/

H @i+,yI> H@yI> i +,A3= +8, Wkh qxpehu ri sruwirolr upv shu YF/ i+,y/ uhvxowv iurp vhdufk lqwhqvlw| y dqg pdwfklqj suredelolw| i+, zklfk lv wkh iudfwlrq ri qdqflqj rhuvyI ohdglqj wr d vxffhvvixo ghdo1

Wkh pdwfklqj suredelolwlhv ghwhuplqh lqfhqwlyhv wr sduwlflsdwh lq wkh vhdufk pdunhw iru YF1 D srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxu orfdwhv d vxlwdeoh YF rhu rqo| zlwk suredelolw| i+,@ dqg wkhq qhjrwldwhv d vkduh 4 ri wkh mrlqw vxusoxv "1 Vkh zloo vhdufk iru YF rqo| li wkh h{shfwhg jdlq ryhu edqn qdqfh dw ohdvw fryhuv wkh vhdufk hruw frvwn/44

i+,

+4,"n> i+,"@+y,= +9, Lq pdnlqj y rhuv/ dq lqglylgxdo YF h{shfwv wr uhdol}h yi+, ghdov zkhuh hdfk ghdo |lhogv d vkduh ri wkh mrlqw vxusoxv "1 Pd{lpl}lqj khu h{shfwhg vxusoxv qhw ri vhdufk hruw frvwv/

44Zkhq dq H frqvlghuv hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls/ vkh uvw ghflghv zkhwkhu wr vhdufk iru d YF ru gluhfwo| frqwdfw d edqn1 Vkh vhdufkhv/ lii@H. +4i@,EnE krogv zklfk lv wkh vwdwhg frqglwlrq1

45

(16)

yi+,"+y,/ |lhogv wkh frqglwlrq lq +9,1 Jlyhq wkdw lqqrydwlyh exvlqhvv lghdv duh vfdufh/

l1h1 lq {hg vxsso|H/ hqwuhsuhqhxuv ghulyh d uhqw dv lqglfdwhg e| wkh uvw lqhtxdolw| zklfk wkh|

fdq dssursuldwh rqo| e| vhdufklqj iru d YF1

Dprqj doo srwhqwldo hqwuhsuhqhxuv/ d sduw H orfdwhv d YF rhu zkloh wkh rwkhu sduw HH hlwkhu uhvruwv wr edqn qdqfh ru uhwxuqv wr hpsor|phqw dw d zdjh Z1 Li lw vxffhhgv/ d up surgxfhv rqh xqlw ri rxwsxw exw qrwklqj li lw idlov1 Wkh djjuhjdwh txdqwlw| vxssolhg lv/ wkxv/

sf+E.H,1 Wdnlqj dffrxqw ri wkh txdolw| glhuhqfht dv lq +4,/ wkh qxpehuEri edqn qdqfhg hqwuhsuhqhxuv iroorzv iurp wkh pdunhw fohdulqj frqglwlrq iru lqqrydwlyh jrrgv/

J+Y, @sfE.t+d,sfH= +:,

Frpshwlwlyh Vhdufk Htxloleulxp= Zh dvvxph wkdw wkhuh duh pruh cuhvlgxdo* hqwuhsuhqhxuv zloolqj wr vwduw d edqn qdqfhg up wkdq zkdw lv qhhghg wr vxsso| wkh pdunhw wkdw lv ohiw ryhu e| YF edfnhg upv/ l1h1 HH A E1 Iuhh hqwu| wkxv holplqdwhv surwv ri edqn qdqfhg upv dqg/ wkhuhe|/ {hv wkh euhdn hyhq sulfh dv lq +5,145 Wkh yhqwxuh uhwxuq Y vhwv lqfhqwlyhv iru hruw lq YF upv dqg wkhuhe| {hv pdqdjhuldo dgylfh dqg ydoxh pd{lpl}lqj htxlw| vkdulqj dv lq +7, dqg wkh mrlqw vxusoxv ri d YF edfnhg up dv lq +6,1 Vlqfh y dqg duh xqltxho| uhodwhg dv lq +8,/ wkh YFv* vhdufk frqglwlrq lq +9, vroyhv iru vhdufk lqwhqvlw|/ pdunhw wljkwqhvv/ dqg htxloleulxp YF sruwirolr vl}h yi+,1 Jlyhq wkh {hg qxpehu ri YFv/ lqglylgxdo sruwirolr vl}h lpsolhv wkh qxpehu ri YF edfnhg upv e| wkh pdwfklqj frqglwlrq lq +8,1 Wkh prgho vroxwlrq lv frpsohwh e| qrwlqj wkdw wkh }hur surwv sulfh lpsolhv pdunhw vl}h dqg uhvlgxdoo| ghwhuplqhv wkh qxpehu ri edqn qdqfhg vwduw0xsv lq +:,1

Zh eholhyh wkdw wklv iudphzrun fdswxuhv wkh prvw lpsruwdqw vw|ol}hg idfwv derxw wkh uhdo hhfwv ri YF lq lqgxvwu| htxloleulxp1 Lw lv zruwk uhshdwlqj vrph nh| ihdwxuhv ri rxu prgho1 Lq olqh zlwk hpslulfdo hylghqfh/ YFv khos zlwk pdqdjhuldo dgylfh dqg wkhuhe|

lpsruwdqwo| surprwh wkh surihvvlrqdol}dwlrq ri wkhlu sruwirolr frpsdqlhv1 Wklv lqsxw lv

45Lq wkh wudglwlrqdo vhfwru/ rqh xqlw ri oderu surgxfhv rqh xqlw ri rxwsxw zklfk vhoov dw d sulfh qrupdol}hg wr xqlw|1 Wkh zdjh lv wkxvZ @ 4lq frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp1

46

(17)

ydoxdeoh wr vwduw0xs upv vlqfh hqwuhsuhqhxuv riwhq vwduw rxw ehlqj udwkhu lqh{shulhqfhg lq pdwwhuv ri exvlqhvv frqgxfw1 Wkh ydoxh dgghg ghulyhg iurp pdqdjhuldo dgylfh pdnhv YF edfnhg upv pruh surwdeoh wkdq rwkhu rqhv1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ YF |lhogv d vxusoxv ryhu wkh qh{w ehvw prgh ri qdqfh1 Vlqfh erwk sduwqhuv surylgh d ydoxdeoh lqsxw wr wkh up/

hdfk rqh kdv edujdlqlqj srzhu wkdw ghwhuplqhv krz wkh| vsolw wklv vxusoxv dprqj wkhp1 Yld edujdlqlqj/ hqwuhsuhqhxuv fdq vkduh lq wkh vxusoxv1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ doo whfkqrorj|

hqwuhsuhqhxuv lq rxu iudphzrun suhihu YF qdqfh ryhu edqn fuhglw dqg pxvw eh udwlrqhg gxh wr wkh olplwhg vxsso| ri YF1 Ghshqglqj rq wkh ghjuhh ri pdunhw wljkwqhvv/ rqo| sduw ri wkh hqwuhsuhqhxuv pdqdjh wr jhw pdwfkhg zlwk d YF1

Zlwk YF qdqfh/ wkh vxffhvv ri wkh up ehfrphv d ixqfwlrq ri erwk wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v rzq fulwlfdo hruw dqg wkh YF*v frqwulexwlrq dqg lv vxemhfw wr d grxeoh vlghg prudo kd}dug/

jlyhq wkh qrq0revhuydelolw| ri hlwkhu hruw1 Wr surylgh lqfhqwlyhv iru erwk hqwuhsuhqhxuldo hruw dqg YF lqyroyhphqw/ krzhyhu/ qrw rqo| wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu exw dovr wkh YF pxvw vkduh lq wkh xsvlgh srwhqwldo ri wkh up1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ dq htxlw| frqwudfw zlwk sursruwlrqdo surw vkdulqj ehfrphv rswlpdo lq rxu vlpsoh iudphzrun1 E| zd| ri frqwudvw/ edqnv duh qrw hqgrzhg zlwk hqwuhsuhqhxuldo nqrzkrz dqg fdqqrw dgg ydoxh wr wkh up eh|rqg wkh phuh qdqflqj ri vwduw0xs frvw1 Zlwk edqn qdqfh/ wkh up*v vxffhvv ghshqgv h{foxvlyho|

rq wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v hruw dorqh1 Zlwk rqh0vlghg prudo kd}dug/ wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu vkrxog eh ixoo uhvlgxdo fodlpdqw rq wkh pdujlqdo uhwxuq wr hruw zklfk pdnhv vwudljkw ghew qdqfh wkh rswlpdo prgh ri qdqfh1

515 Dgglqj Sxeolf Srolf|

Wkh sursrvhg iudphzrun doorzv iru d uljrurxv dqdo|vlv ri vhyhudo srolf| lqvwuxphqwv wkdw duh riwhq frqvlghuhg lpsruwdqw iru wkh ghyhorsphqw dqg pdwxudwlrq ri wkh YF lqgxvwu|1 Lw lv phqwlrqhg wkdw YF fdq rxulvk rqo| lq dq dfwlyh uhvhdufk hqylurqphqw1 Ixuwkhu0 pruh/ wkh YF frppxqlw| riwhq frpsodlqv derxw d odfn ri kljk txdolw| hqwuhsuhqhxuv zlwk surplvlqj lghdv1 Wklv qrwlrq dovr vhhpv wr eh vxssruwhg e| wkh idfw wkdw lq uhdolw|/ d odujh sduw ri ixqgv udlvhg lv dfwxdoo| qrw lqyhvwhg exw uhpdlqv lgoh/ zdlwlqj suhvxpdeo|

47

(18)

iru pruh surplvlqj lqyhvwphqw rssruwxqlwlhv1 D vwuhqjwkhqlqj ri sxeolfo| ixqghg edvlf uhvhdufk fdq eh wkrxjkw ri dv lqfuhdvlqj wkh qxpehu ri srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv zlwk d exvlqhvv lghd/ ghqrwhg e| .7 lq rxu prgho1 Vxuho|/ wkh vwuhqjwkhqlqj ri edvlf uh0 vhdufk grhv qrw frph iru iuhh exw fduulhv d pdujlqdo exgjhw frvw ri/ vd|/ aE 7.1 Zkdw dprxqw ri dgglwlrqdo uhvrxufhv lv zduudqwhg wr lqfuhdvh wkh vxsso| ri srwhqwldo whfkqrorj|

hqwuhsuhqhxuv pxvw/ lq sulqflsoh/ eh ghwhuplqhg lq d frpsdulvrq ri wkh srvvleoh ehqhwv dqg wkh frvw ri hgxfdwlqj wkhp1 Iru vlpsolflw|/ zh zloo dvvxph wkdw oxps0vxp wd{hv duh dydlodeoh wr qdqfh wkh rxwod|v iru dgglwlrqdo edvlf uhvhdufk1

Dqrwkhu srvvleoh srolf| lqlwldwlyh lv hqwuhsuhqhxuldo wudlqlqj dqg rwkhu jryhuqphqw vsrqvruhg frqvxowlqj dqg dgylvlqj dfwlylwlhv ylv0d0ylv qhz upv1 Vxfk dfwlylw| dlpv dw udlvlqj wkh vxuylydo suredelolw| ri |rxqj hqwuhsuhqhxuldo upv1 Wkh vxffhvv suredelolw|

Rf ' RE} zrxog wkhq lqfuhdvh zlwk wkh rxwod| } shu wudlqhg hqwuhsuhqhxu1 Vlqfh vxfk wudlqlqj jhqhudoo| rffxuv sulru wr edqn ru YF qdqflqj/ lw grhv qrw glvfulplqdwh dprqj qdqflqj prghv dqg fryhuv doo hqwuhsuhqhxuv1

D wklug rswlrq lv wr vxevlgl}h wkh sk|vlfdo lqyhvwphqw frvw zklfk pxvw eh lqfxuuuhg wr vwduw d up1 Dq lqyhvwphqw vxevlg| uhgxfhv wkh sulydwh frvw ri vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw wr E5U1 Lq sulqflsoh/ wkh vxevlg| fdq glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq edqn dqg YF qdqfhg upv +5. dqg58,1 Lw lv jlyhq luuhvshfwlyh ri zkhwkhu wkh up vxffhhgv ru qrw1 Lw wkxv fdswxuhv prvw ri wkh uhdo zruog srolf| lqlwldwlyhv wr surprwh exvlqhvv fuhdwlrq zklfk sulpdulo|

vxevlgl}h vwduw0xs +qdqflqj, frvwv1 Lq sudfwlfh/ jryhuqphqwv prvwo| kdqg rxw lqwhuhvw vxevlglhv/ gluhfw jryhuqphqw ordqv dw uhgxfhg lqwhuhvw frvw/ ru fuhglw jxdudqwhhv wkdw khos wr uhgxfh wkh edqn*v ulvn suhplxp rq vpdoo exvlqhvv ordqv1 Zh frqvlghu krz wklv vxevlg|

iduhv lq rxu pruh h{solflw prgho ri YF dqg edqn qdqfh1

Vlqfh |rxqj/ idvw jurzlqj upv duh xqdeoh wr sd| glylghqgv/ wkh uhwxuq rq vxfk lq0 yhvwphqw doprvw h{foxvlyho| dffuxhv dv fdslwdo jdlqv wr wkh lqlwldo lqyhvwphqw/ erwk wr hqwuhsuhqhxuv dqg qdqflhuv1 Wkh exvlqhvv frppxqlw| frqvlghuv wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{

dv wkh prvw lpsruwdqw wd{ eduulhu/ dqg srolf| pdnhuv kdyh riwhq sursrvhg wr fxw fdsl0 wdo jdlqv wd{hv wr vwlpxodwh vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw ri lqqrydwlyh upv1 Wr wkh ehvw ri rxu

48

(19)

nqrzohgjh/ dqg h{fhsw iru rxu rzq hduolhu dwwhpswv/ wklv wd{ kdv qrw |hw ehhq vxemhfw wr d uljrurxv dqdo|vlv zlwklq d vwuxfwxudo prgho ri YF qdqfh wkdw doorzv wr fdswxuh wkh lqfhqwlyh hhfwv iru wkh mrlqw hruw ri hqwuhsuhqhxuv dqg YFv146

6 Srolf| Dqdo|vlv

D uljrurxv srolf| dqdo|vlv pxvw uvw dqvzhu wkh txhvwlrq zkhwkhu wkhuh lv dq| xvhixo uroh dw doo iru wkh jryhuqphqw lq fruuhfwlqj fhuwdlq pdunhw glvwruwlrqv dqg pdunhw idloxuhv1 Lq ylhz ri wkh idfw wkdw jryhuqphqw dfwlylw| lwvhoi riwhq vxhuv iurp uhjxodwru| fdswxuh dv Ohuqhu +5335, hpskdvl}hv lq wkh frqwh{w ri lqqrydwlrq qdqfh/ vxfk pdunhw glvwruwlrqv pxvw eh fohduo| lghqwlhg wr zduudqw dq| vshflf vxevlglhv/ wd{ euhdnv ru rwkhu h{shqglwxuh lq idyru ri wkh lqgxvwu|1 Rxu prgho ri wkh YF lqgxvwu| doorzv iru vhyhudo srwhqwldoo| xvhixo srolf|

lqlwldwlyhv1 Iluvw/ wkhuh pljkw eh d srwhqwldo uroh iru vshflf wd{ euhdnv ru gluhfw vxevlglhv wr dgguhvv fhuwdlq pdunhw glvwruwlrqv1 Dqg vhfrqg/ wkhuh pljkw h{lvw d gluhfwo| ydoxh hqkdqflqj jryhuqphqw dfwlylw| wkdw lv qrw vxevwlwxwhg hdvlo| e| wkh sulydwh vhfwru1 Wr fkdudfwhul}h wkh rswlpdo srolf| wrzdugv YF lq rxu iudphzrun/ zh uvw ghulyh wkh vrfldoo|

rswlpdo uhvrxufh doorfdwlrq zklfk iroorzv iurp pd{lpl}lqj dq djjuhjdwh zhoiduh phdvxuh vxemhfw wr uhvrxufh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo frqvwudlqwv147 Frpsdulqj wklv rswlpdo doorfdwlrq zlwk wkh frpshwlwlyh pdunhw htxloleulxp/ zh fdq lghqwli| srwhqwldo glvwruwlrqv dqg wkhlu

46Vhh wkh uhihuhqfhv wr wkh sxeolf qdqfh olwhudwxuh lq wkh lqwurgxfwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ Lqghuvw dqg Pxhoohu +5335, vkruwo| glvfxvv wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{1 Lw lv qrw wkhlu pdlq irfxv/ krzhyhu/ dqg d uljrurxv zhoiduh edvhg dqdo|vlv lv plvvlqj1

47Wkh zhoiduh phdvxuh ghulyhv iurp djjuhjdwlqj lqglylgxdo zhoiduh dv lq htxdwlrq +4, ri Er{ 4=

X@O+L.j, +H.E, .x+J,+H.E,dH+y,InHMH

=

Vxsso| ri wkh wudglwlrqdo jrrg dprxqwv wr O @ 4HE/ wkh oderu lqsxw ri wkh qrq0hqwuhsuhqhxuldo srsxodwlrq1 Vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw lq wkh lqqrydwlyh vhfwru devruev d txdqwlw|+L.j, +H.E,zklfk ohdyhv d zhoiduh ri O+L.j, +H.E, iurp frqvxpswlrq ri wklv jrrg1 Wkh vxsso| dqg frqvxpswlrq ri wkh lqqrydwlyh jrrg dprxqwv wr J/ |lhoglqj zhoiduh x+J,/ iurp zklfk rqh pxvw vxevwudfw doo uhohydqw hruw frvwv soxv wkh uhvrxufh frvwMH

ri hgxfdwlqj srwhqwldo hqwuhsuhqhxuv yld edvlf uhvhdufk h{shqglwxuh1

49

(20)

uhphglhv yld sxeolf srolf| lqlwldwlyhv1

614 Srwhqwldo Glvwruwlrqv

Rxu iudphzrun srlqwv wr wzr srwhqwldo glvwruwlrqv lq YF qdqfh zkhuh wd{ srolf| pljkw khos wr lpsuryh sulydwh lqfhqwlyhv1 Wkh uvw rqh ghulyhv iurp wkh idfw wkdw wkh vxffhvv ri d YF edfnhg up uhtxluhv wkh mrlqw hruw ri erwk wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu dqg qdqflhu dqg lv wkhuhiruh vxemhfw wr d grxeoh prudo kd}dug sureohp1 Wkh YF frqwudfw pxvw surylgh lqfhqwlyhv iru erwk sduwlhv wr vhfxuh wkhlu mrlqw hruw1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ qrw rqo| wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu exw dovr wkh YF pxvw vkduh lq wkh xsvlgh srwhqwldo ri wkh yhqwxuh zklfk pdnhv dq htxlw| frqwudfw zlwk surw vkdulqj suhihudeoh wr vwudljkw ghew qdqfh1 Surw vkdulqj/ krzhyhu/ fdqqrw gholyhu wkh uljkw lqfhqwlyhv iru d vrfldoo| rswlpdo hruw1 Zkloh erwk wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu dqg wkh YF pxvw ixoo| ehdu wkhlu sulydwh hruw frvw/ wkh uhwxuq wr rqh*v rzq hruw pxvw eh vkduhg zlwk wkh sduwqhu ri wkh yhqwxuh xqghu dq htxlw| frqwudfw zlwk sursruwlrqdo surw vkdulqj148 Zkhq dq djhqw dssursuldwhv rqo| sduw ri wkh uhwxuq rq h{wud hruw exw pxvw ehdu wkh ixoo frvw/ khu hruw whqgv wr eh lqh!flhqwo| orz1 Lq rxu iudphzrun/ zh kdyh wuhdwhg wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v hruw dv devroxwho| fulwlfdo iru wkh vxffhvv ri wkh up dqg kdyh dvvxphg lw wr eh hlwkhu kljk ru orz1 Vlqfh vklunlqj pdnhv wkh up idlo zlwk fhuwdlqw|/ wkh sduwlhv zloo wkxv dozd|v djuhh rq d plqlpdo surw vkduh wkdw mxvw vx!fhv wr vhfxuh wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v ixoo hruw1 Wkh sureohp wkxv uhpdlqv zlwk wkh YF*v pdqdjhuldo vxssruw149 Wkh qhhg wr vkduh wkh uhwxuq rq hruw zlwk wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu lqvwdoov d eldv wrzdugv lqh!flhqwo| orz YF vxssruw1 Srolf| vkrxog wdujhw wkh YFv* lqfhqwlyhv iru forvhu lqyroyhphqw zlwk wkhlu sruwirolr frpsdqlhv1

Ehiruh gudzlqj dq| lpphgldwh srolf| frqfoxvlrqv/ krzhyhu/ rqh vkrxog hpskdvl}h wkdw wkh lqgxvwu| kdv sduwo| ghyhorshg lwv rzq vroxwlrqv wr dw ohdvw doohyldwh wkh sureohp1

48Wklv lv hylghqw iurp htxdwlrq +7, lq Er{ 41

49Wkh uhylvhg yhuvlrq ri Nhxvfkqljj dqg Qlhovhq +5335, wuhdwv erwk hruwv dv yduldeoh1 Lq frqvhtxhqfh/

qrw rqo| wkh YF*v exw dovr wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v lqsxw whqgv wr eh xqghusurylghg1 Glvfuhwh hruw rq wkh sduw ri wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu frqvlghudeo| vlpsolhv wkh dqdo|vlv dqg grhv qrw fkdqjh rxu frqfoxvlrqv zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh YFv* ehkdylru1

4:

(21)

Vfkplgw +5335,/ dprqj rwkhuv/ kdv vkrzq wkdw wkh xvh ri frqyhuwleoh vhfxulwlhv zklfk duh suhydohqw lq YF qdqfh fdq jr d orqj zd| wr doorfdwh wkh uljkw lqfhqwlyhv dw wkh uljkw wlph wr hdfk sduwqhu1 Vwdjh qdqflqj/ l1h1 wkh w|lqj ri ixuwkhu qdqflqj urxqgv wr wkh dfklhyhphqw ri suhghqhg plohvwrqhv lq wkh frpsdq|*v ghyhorsphqw/ dovr dgguhvvhv wkh sureohp1 Krzhyhu/ dv orqj dv erwk lqsxwv pxvw eh vxssolhg vlpxowdqhrxvo| dw ohdvw lq vrph vwdjhv ri wkh up*v ghyhorsphqw/ dv zh dvvxph lq rxu iudphzrun/ wkh lqh!flhqf|

sureohp qhyhu ixoo| glvdsshduv1

D vhfrqg srwhqwldo glvwruwlrq uhodwhv wr wkh vhdufk hruw iru d YF ghdo1 D vxffhvvixo ghdo iru d qhz YF lqyhvwphqw jhqhudwhv d vxusoxv wkdw lv glylghg dprqj wkh YF dqg wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu dffruglqj wr wkhlu edujdlqlqj srzhu1 Ehiruh wklv vxusoxv ehfrphv dydlodeoh/

erwk sduwlhv pxvw vhdufk lq wkh pdwfklqj pdunhw iru d vxlwdeoh sduwqhu1 Wkh sulydwh vhdufk lqwhqvlw| ri d YF frpsduhv wkh vhdufk frvw lqfxuuhg e| srvwlqj dqrwkhu qdqflqj rhu zlwk wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq wr vhdufk1 Wkh h{shfwhg jdlq frqvlvwv ri wkh suredelolw| ri qglqj d surplvlqj yhqwxuh wlphv wkh YF*v vkduh lq wkh vxusoxv dv lq htxdwlrq +9, ri Er{

41 Wkh pdwfklqj suredelolw| lv ghwhuplqhg lq htxloleulxp dqg lv dq lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri pdunhw wljkwqhvv/ wkh udwlr ri srwhqwldo hqwuhsuhqhxuv orrnlqj iru d ghdo wr wkh qxpehu ri rxwvwdqglqj qdqflqj rhuv e| YFv1 Wkh pruh hqwuhsuhqhxuv wkhuh duh uhodwlyh wr wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri rxwvwdqglqj qdqflqj rhuv/ wkh hdvlhu lw lv iru d YF wr qg d vxlwdeoh lqyhvwphqw surmhfw zkhq vkh ghflghv wr srvw dq dgglwlrqdo qdqflqj rhu1 Wkh pdwfklqj htxloleulxp lq wkh pdunhw iru YF lv h!flhqw rqo| li wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri YF vhdufk lq jhqhudwlqj d ghdo +dv phdvxuhg e| wkh hodvwlflw| # ri wkh qxpehu ri vxffhvvixo pdwfkhv zlwk uhvshfw wr qdqflqj rhuv, h{dfwo| fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh YF*v edujdlqlqj srzhu 1 lq vsolwwlqj wkh mrlqw vxusoxv1 Wklv lv wkh vr0fdoohg Krvlrv +4<<3, frqglwlrq iru dq h!flhqw vhdufk htxloleulxp1

Rqh fdq xqghuvwdqg wkh edodqfh ri h{0srvw edujdlqlqj srzhu zlwk wkh pdwfklqj hi0 ihfwlyhqhvv dv d frqglwlrq iru wkh h!flhqw glvwulexwlrq ri surshuw| uljkwv ryhu wkh uhwxuqv wr vhdufk1 Wkh vhdufk hruw lv d vshflf lqyhvwphqw lq d ixwxuh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq dq hqwuhsuhqhxu dqg d YF1 Wkhvh vshflf lqyhvwphqwv fdqqrw eh frqwudfwhg ehfdxvh wkh hq0

4;

(22)

wuhsuhqhxu dqg YF gr qrw nqrz dw wklv vwdjh wkh lghqwlw| ri wkhlu ixwxuh exvlqhvv sduwqhu diwhu pdwfklqj1 Wkh| phhw rqo| diwhu wkh| kdyh vxqn wkhlu vhdufk frvw/ l1h1 wkhlu vshflf lqyhvwphqw lq wkh uhodwlrqvkls1 Wkh h!flhqf| frqglwlrq1 '# lpsolhv wkdw wkh sduw| wkdw fduulhv rxw wkh prvw lpsruwdqw qrq0frqwudfwleoh lqyhvwphqwv vkrxog eh prvw srzhuixo h{

srvw vr wkdw lw fdq fruuhvsrqglqjo| fodlp prvw ri wkh uhqwv14: D glvwruwlrq dulvhv zkhqhyhu wkh frqglwlrq lv ylrodwhg1 Zkhq hqwuhsuhqhxuv kdyh h{fhvvlyh edujdlqlqj srzhu uhodwlyh wr wkhlu pdwfklqj hhfwlyhqhvv/ wkh vhdufk hruw ri YFv lv glvfrxudjhg1 Wkh vfdufhw|

ri qdqflqj rhuv uhvxowv lq dq ryhuo| vpdoo qxpehu ri ghdov1 Hdfk YF up hqgv xs zlwk dq lqh!flhqwo| vpdoo sruwirolr ri upv1 YF lqyhvwphqwv vkrxog eh hqfrxudjhg e|

vwuhqjwkhqlqj wkh YF*v vhdufk lqfhqwlyhv1 Wkh rssrvlwh frqfoxvlrqv krog li YFv lqvwhdg ri hqwuhsuhqhxuv kdyh ryhuo| kljk edujdlqlqj srzhu1 Krzhyhu/ vlqfh wkh h{whqw ri hdfk sduw|*v edujdlqlqj srzhu lv qrw hdvlo| ghwhuplqhg/ lw vhhpv gl!fxow wr gholqhdwh sudfwlfdo srolf| jxlgholqhv1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ zh khqfhiruwk frqfhqwudwh pruh rq wkh fdvh ri h!flhqw vhdufk +zlwk 1 '#,1

615 Rswlpdo Srolf| Wrzdugv Yhqwxuh Fdslwdo

Vwduwlqj iurp wkh suhvxpswlrq wkdw YFv vkrxog eh lqyroyhg pruh lqwhqvlyho| lq wkhlu sruwirolr frpsdqlhv wr dwwdlq d kljkhu txdolw| ri YF/ srolf| pxvw hlwkhu dgguhvv pdujlqdo ehqhwv ru frvwv ri dq h{wud pdqdjhuldo lqsxw1 Vlqfh hruw frvw lv lqwdqjleoh lq qdwxuh dqg wkhuhiruh fdqqrw eh wkh wdujhw ri wd{ srolf|/ rqh lv ohiw zlwk d uhyhqxh vxevlg| wr YF edfnhg frpsdqlhv1 Wkh sxusrvh ri wklv vxevlg| lv wr pdnh wkh YF wkh ixoo uhvlgxdo fodlpdqw rq wkh uhwxuq wr khu hruw dv lv uhtxluhg iru h!flhqf|14; Wklv uhyhqxh vxevlg|

jlyhq wr sruwirolr upv/ krzhyhu/ qrw rqo| vwuhqjwkhqv lqfhqwlyhv iru dgylfh dqg wkhuhe|

lpsuryhv wkh txdolw| ri YF qdqflqj/ lw dovr vwlpxodwhv wkh txdqwlw| ri YF lqyhvwphqwv1 Lq pdnlqj YF lqyhvwphqwv sulydwho| pruh surwdeoh/ lw ohdgv YFv wr vhdufk pruh lqwhqvlyho|

4:Vhh Errqh dqg Eryhqehuj +5335, iru dq dqdorjrxv lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh Krvlrv frqglwlrq lq wkh frqwh{w ri oderu pdunhw vhdufk1

4;Lq htxdwlrq +7,/ wkh uhyhqxh vxevlg| ?3lv vhw vxfk wkdw+4, +4v, @ 41 Zlwk wklv vxevlg| lq sodfh/ wkh YF zrxog dssursuldwh wkh ixoo vrfldo jdlqvs3t3+d,Y ri khu frqvxowlqj hruw1

4<

(23)

iru qhz ghdov1 Li wkh vhdufk htxloleulxp lq wkh pdunhw iru YF lv h!flhqw ehfdxvh wkh YFv*

edujdlqlqj srzhu lv zhoo doljqhg zlwk wkhlu hhfwlyhqhvv lq jhqhudwlqj ghdov/ vxfk h{wud vwlpxoxv iru pruh YF lqyhvwphqwv zrxog eh frxqwhusurgxfwlyh1 Lq rxu iudphzrun ri wkh YF lqgxvwu|/ pruh txdolw| exw qrw pruh txdqwlw| ri YF qdqfh lv qhhghg1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh rswlpdo srolf| lv wr frpelqh d uhyhqxh vxevlg| wkdw hqfrxudjhv pdqdjhuldo vxssruw/ zlwk d wd{ +udwkhu wkdq d vxevlg|, rq vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw frvw1 Wkh sxusrvh ri wklv wd{ lv wr rvhw wkh lqfhqwlyh iru lqfuhdvhg hqwu| zklfk lv fuhdwhg e| wkh dgylfh hqkdqflqj uhyhqxh vxevlg|1 Qrwh wkdw d wd{ rq sk|vlfdo lqyhvwphqw frvw lv qrw kdupixo wr wkh lqfhqwlyhv iru dgylfh vlqfh wklv frvw lv douhdg| vxqn zkhq pdqdjhuldo hruw pxvw eh h{shqghg1

Zlwk wklv sdfndjh/ wkh srolf| fdq odujho| eh vhoi0qdqflqj1 Lq idfw/ li wkh pdwfklqj htxloleulxp lv h!flhqw/ vhdufk vkrxog qhlwkhu eh hqfrxudjhg qru glvfrxudjhg1 Lq wklv fdvh/ wkh uhyhqxh vxevlg| fxp lqyhvwphqw wd{ lv h{dfwo| vhoi0qdqflqj lq rxu iudphzrun1 Wkh rswlpdo srolf| fkdqjhv/ krzhyhu/ li wkh vhdufk hruw lv glvwruwhg ehfdxvh ri h{fhvvlyh edujdlqlqj srzhu ri YFv1 Li YFv duh deoh wr dssursuldwh d glvsursruwlrqdwho| odujh vkduh ri wkh mrlqw vxusoxv/ wkh| zloo fkdvh qhz ghdov zlwk d vhdufk lqwhqvlw| kljkhu wkdq zkdw lv zduudqwhg e| wkhlu hhfwlyhqhvv lq jhqhudwlqj ghdov1 Wklv whqghqf| iru ryhulqyhvwphqw lq whupv ri YF txdqwlw|/ ru qxpehu ri sruwirolr frpsdqlhv qdqfhg/ frxog eh rvhw zlwk dq hyhq kljkhu lqyhvwphqw wd{1 Wkh rssrvlwh frqfoxvlrq krogv li wkh YFv* edujdlqlqj srzhu zhuh vpdoohu wkdq zkdw lv uhtxluhg iru dq h!flhqw glvwulexwlrq ri surshuw| uljkwv rq wkh uhwxuqv wr vhdufk1

Qrqh ri wkhvh frqvlghudwlrqv dssolhv wr edqn qdqfhg upv1 Wkhuh lv qhlwkhu dq| uroh iru d uhyhqxh vxevlg| vlqfh edqnv wr qrw rhu dgylfh/ qru d vxevlg| ru wd{ rq vwduw0xs lqyhvwphqw frvw vlqfh wkhuh duh qr vhdufk0uhodwhg glvwruwlrqv1 Edqn ohqglqj lv sdvvlyh zlwk0 rxw dq| uhodwlrqvkls0vshflf lqyhvwphqwv dqg wkxv ixoo| frpshwlwlyh lq rxu iudphzrun1 Lq dvvxplqj xqlirup delolw| ri hqwuhsuhqhxuv/ zh kdyh krzhyhu h{foxghg dq| lvvxh ri dgyhuvh vhohfwlrq zklfk pljkw srwhqwldoo| mxvwli| fhuwdlq srolf| lqwhuyhqwlrqv1 Erwk ryhuohqglqj dqg udwlrqlqj ri edqn qdqflqj duh srwhqwldo rxwfrphv/ ghshqglqj rq krz uhwxuqv dqg

53

(24)

ulvn duh ghwhuplqhg e| hqwuhsuhqhxuldo delolw|14< Zh kdyh devwudfwhg iurp vxfk lvvxhv dqg wkhuhiruh fdqqrw lghqwli| dq| uroh iru vshflf srolflhv gluhfwhg wrzdugv edqn ohqglqj1

Jryhuqphqwv riwhq dvvxph dq dfwlyh uroh lq vxssruwlqj vwduw0xs hqwuhsuhqhxuv1 Hq0 wuhsuhqhxuldo wudlqlqj/ jryhuqphqw frqvxowlqj dqg vlplodu rwkhu dfwlylwlhv duh phdqw wr udlvh wkh vxuylydo fkdqfhv ri |rxqj upv1 Wkhvh phdvxuhv w|slfdoo| gr qrw glvwlqjxlvk eh0 wzhhq edqn dqg YF qdqfhg upv1 Vxssrvh wkh jryhuqphqw vshqgv uhvrxufhv}E.n/ ru } shu wudlqhg hqwuhsuhqhxu1 D pdujlqdo lqfuhdvh lq vshqglqj hqdeohv wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu wr vxffhhg zlwk dq lqfuhdvhg suredelolw| RfE} dqg wkhuhe| udlvhv h{shfwhg uhyhqxhv ri wkh up1 Hqwuhsuhqhxuldo wudlqlqj lv d sxeolfo| vxssolhg sulydwh jrrg pxfk olnh dq| rwkhu hgxfdwlrq h{shqglwxuh1 Ehlqj h{foxgdeoh/ lw lv srvvleoh zlwkrxw sureohp wr fkdujh d xvhu ihh1 Suhvxpdeo|/ vxfk h{shqglwxuh vlpso| vxevwlwxwhv iru sulydwh dfwlylw|/ dw ohdvw wr vrph h{whqw1 Dv lw wxuqv rxw/ rswlpdo srolf| ixoo| fkdujhv hqwuhsuhqhxuv iru wkh wudlqlqj frvw1 Wkh ohyho ri wkh wudlqlqj dfwlylw| lv rswlpdoo| h{sdqghg xqwlo wkh pdujlqdo h{shfwhg rxw0 sxw jdlqv iurp udlvlqj wkh vxffhvv udwh/ ydoxhg dw wkh sulfh ri lqqrydwlyh jrrgv/ htxdov wkh pdujlqdo uhvrxufh frvw .nC ri grlqj vr153

Ilqdoo|/ lw lv riwhq fodlphg wkdw d yleudqw YF lqgxvwu| fdq ghyhors rqo| lq dq dfwlyh uhvhdufk hqylurqphqw1 Sursrqhqwv ri wkh YF frppxqlw| dovr frpsodlq wkdw wkhuh lv d odfn ri whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv1 Pruh vshqglqj rq edvlf uhvhdufk fdq khos wr lqfuhdvh wkh vxsso| ri srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv1 Riwhq/ sxeolf ixqgv duh doorfdwhg wr hogv ri uhvhdufk wkdw ohqg wkhpvhoyhv pruh hdvlo| iru frpphufldol}dwlrq dqg zkhuh wkh h{shq0 glwxuh lv pruh olnho| wr uhvxow lq vwduw0xsv dqg vslq0rv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ jryhuqphqwv riwhq hqfrxudjh wkh frpphufldol}dwlrq ri uhvhdufk txlwh h{solflwo| lq exloglqj exvlqhvv lqfxed0 wruv dqg surylglqj rwkhu exvlqhvv uhodwhg lqiudvwuxfwxuh qhdu xqlyhuvlwlhv ru rwkhu uhvhdufk

4<Vhh Gh Ph}d +5335, iru d glvfxvvlrq1

53Pd{lpl}lqj djjuhjdwh zhoiduh X @ x+J,+L.j, +H.E, .= = = |lhogv dq rswlpdolw| frqglwlrq +tH.E,Y s33+j, @ H.E zkhuh Y @ x3+J, dqg J@ tH.E lv xvhg1 Wkh vdph frqglwlrq zrxog rewdlq li upv frxog ex| vxfk vhuylfhv rq d frpshwlwlyh pdunhw1 Edqn0qdqfhg upv zrxog pd{lpl}h E @s3+Y G,j. zdqg ex| xqwlo s33+j,Y @ 4ru Es33+j,Y @Elq wkh djjuhjdwh/ dqg vlploduo|

iru YF0qdqfhg upv1 Rxu iudphzrun grhv qrw h{sodlq zk| vxfk d pdunhw vroxwlrq vkrxog idlo1

54

(25)

fhqwhuv/ krslqj wkdw wklv zloo hqfrxudjh d odujhu qxpehu ri zrxog0eh hqwuhsuhqhxuv1 Zh fdswxuh wklv lq rxu iudphzrun lq dq dgplwwhgo| fuxgh zd| e| srvwxodwlqj wkdw wkh {hg vxsso| .7 ri srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv fdq eh lqfuhdvhg zlwk dgglwlrqdo edvlf uhvhdufk vshqglqj dw d surjuhvvlyho| lqfuhdvlqj exgjhw frvw ri a.7

154

Wkh rswlpdo dprxqw ri vshqglqj lv duulyhg dw zkhq wkh pdujlqdo uhvrxufh frvwa.7 ri hgxfdwlqj dqrwkhu srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxu lv edodqfhg e| wkh h{shfwhg pdujlqdo lqfrph jdlq wkxv fuhdwhg1 Vlqfh wkh vxsso| ri srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv ./ e|7 dvvxpswlrq/ fdq eh h{sdqghg rqo| zlwk dgglwlrqdo sxeolf vshqglqj rq edvlf uhvhdufk/

hqwuhsuhqhxuv ghulyh d sulydwh uhqw dv lqglfdwhg e| wkh lqhtxdolw| lq +9, ri Er{ 41 Li wkh vhdufk htxloleulxp lv h!flhqw/ l1h1 1 ' #/ wkhq wkh sulydwh uhqw fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh qhw jdlq wr vrflhw|/ qhw ri vhdufk hruw/ ri kdylqj dq dgglwlrqdo fdqglgdwh iru d YF edfnhg vwduw0xs up1 Wkh pdujlqdo frvw ri hgxfdwlqj wklv h{wud whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxu lv a.7

1 Lq wkh vrfldo rswlpxp/ wkh uhqw wr hqwuhsuhqhxuvkls lv edodqfhg e| pdujlqdo h{shqglwxuh155 Dowkrxjk wklv lv d vrphzkdw fuxgh prgholqj/ lw grhv srlqw wr wkh idfw wkdw sxeolf vshqglqj gluhfwhg wrzdugv wkh frpphufldol}dwlrq ri vflhqfh dqg wkh hgxfdwlrq ri srwhqwldo whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv pxvw xowlpdwho| e| mxvwlhg e| wkh h{wud lqfrph ru vxusoxv lw fuhdwhv lq htxloleulxp1

616 Wkh Hhfwv ri Srolf| Uhirup

Frqvlghudwlrqv ri rswlpdo srolf| ghvljq duh vhogrp hdvlo| wudqvodwhg lqwr sudfwlfdo wd{

srolf|1 Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ zh frqvlghu vpdoo srolf| fkdqjhv156 Wkh dsshqgl{ uhshdwv lq +D14, wkrvh htxdwlrqv ri Er{ 4 wkdw fkdqjh lq wkh suhvhqfh ri wd{hv1 Zh uvw wxuq wr wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{ zklfk lv frqvlghuhg rqh ri wkh prvw lpsruwdqw wd{ eduulhuv wr wkh ghyhorsphqw

54Wkdw edvlf uhvhdufk h{sdqgv wkh vxsso| ri whfkqrorj| hqwuhsuhqhxuv lv vxuho| pruh d ehqhfldo vlgh hhfw udwkhu wkdq wkh pdlq sxusrvh ri vxfk vshqglqj1 Rqh pljkw wkhuhiruh zlvk wr lqwhusuhw M dv wkdw sduw ri uhvhdufk vshqglqj zklfk vshflfdoo| dlpv dw jhqhudwlqj d kljkhu suredelolw| ri vslq0rv1

55Wkh rswlpdolw| frqglwlrq lvi+,@+4,"n@M3H

56Wr nhhs fdofxodwlrqv vlpsoh/ zh vwduw iurp dq xqwd{hg htxloleulxp srvlwlrq1 Vhh wkh dsshqgl{ iru1 dqdo|wlfdo uhvxowv rq frpsdudwlyh vwdwlfv1

55

(26)

ri wkh YF lqgxvwu|1

Fdslwdo Jdlqv Wd{dwlrq= Vlqfh |rxqj upv kdugo| sd| dq| glylghqgv/ wkh uhwxuq rq vxfk upv dffuxhv prvwo| dv fdslwdo jdlqv ryhu dq| lqlwldo htxlw| lqyhvwphqw1 Wklv dssolhv wr erwk edqn qdqfhg dqg YF edfnhg frpsdqlhv1 D frpshwlwlyh lqgxvwu| zlwk iuhh hqwu|

fdqqrw vxvwdlq sxuh surwv ryhu wkh orqj0uxq1 Wkh iuhh hqwu| frqglwlrq iru edqn qdqfhg upv wkxv {hv wkh htxloleulxp uhwxuq T doorzlqj upv wr euhdn hyhq1 Yhqwxuh uhwxuqv pxvw frpshqvdwh iru doo uhohydqw frvwv exw qr pruh wkdq wkdw1 Jlyhq hqwuhsuhqhxuv uhtxluh d {hg frpshqvdwlrq iru wkhlu hruw frvw dqg wkh iruhjrqh zdjh lqfrph/ yhqwxuh uhwxuqv pxvw lqfuhdvh vr wkdw h{shfwhg fdslwdo jdlqv qhw ri wkh wd{ vwloo vx!fh wr fryhu wkh rssruwxqlw| frvw1 D kljkhu sulfh ri lqqrydwlyh jrrgv vtxhh}hv pdunhw vl}h dqg vkrxog wkxv ohdg wr h{lw1

Rqh fdq h{shfw ixuwkhu lqwhuhvwlqj lpsolfdwlrqv iru pdunhw vwuxfwxuh1 Kljkhu yhqwxuh uhwxuqv vwuhqjwkhq lqfhqwlyhv iru hruw/ lq sduwlfxodu wkh lqfhqwlyhv iru wkh YFv* pdqdjhuldo frqvxowlqj1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{ lwvhoi udwkhu gluhfwo| glvfrxudjhv pdqdjhuldo vxssruw dv lw uhgxfhv wkh sulydwh uhwxuq rq h{wud hruw157 Rq qhw/ YF edfnhg upv zloo uhfhlyh ohvv pdqdjhuldo vxssruw1 Zkhq YFv ehfrph ohvv lqyroyhg/ wkh pdunhw rulhqwdwlrq ri upv zloo vxhu/ ohdglqj wr orzhu lqqrydwlrq dqg txdolw| lpsuryhphqwv dqg/ lq wxuq/ wr d orzhu pdunhw suhplxp1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh shuirupdqfh ri YF edfnhg uhodwlyh wr edqn qdqfhg upv zloo eh ohvv lpsuhvvlyh1 Wkh qdqfldo frqwudfw/ lq dgglwlrq/

lqfoxghv dq xsiurqw sd|phqw wr wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu zklfk vsolwv wkh mrlqw vxusoxv dprqj wkh wzr sduwlhv1 Wkh wd{ vtxhh}hv wklv vkduhg vxusoxv dv d qhw uhvxow ri wkuhh hhfwv= uvw/

wkh wd{ gluhfwo| wdnhv dzd| iurp wkh vxusoxv1 Vhfrqg/ lw glvfrxudjhv dgylfh dqg wkxv glplqlvkhv wkh ydoxh dgghg e| wkh YF1 Dqg wklug/ dv d sduwldoo| rvhwwlqj hhfw/ wkh wd{

udlvhv wkh frpshwlwlyh sulfh/ dv sduw ri wkh upv ohdyh wkh lqgxvwu|1 Wkh qhw hhfw lv qhjdwlyh/ vhh htxdwlrqv +D1709, lq wkh dsshqgl{1

57Vhh +D1506,1 Vlqfh wkh hqwuhsuhqhxu*v hruw lv fulwlfdo/ lw pxvw dovzd|v eh kljk1 Li khu uhwxuq rq hruw lv uhgxfhg rq dffrxqw ri wkh wd{ dqg wkh ghfolqh lq wkh YF*v ydoxh dgghg frqwulexwlrq/ vkh pxvw eh doorfdwhg d kljkhu htxlw| vkduh wr uhwdlq khu fulwlfdo hruw1

56

(27)

Wkh orzhu mrlqw vxusoxv ri YF edfnhg upv lv vkduhg dprqj hqwuhsuhqhxuv dqg YFv dqg wkxv ghwhuplqhv wkhlu lqfhqwlyhv wr vhdufk iru d ghdo1 Lw lv vdlg wkdw YFv riwhq frqvlghu xs wr 433 exvlqhvv sodqv exw lq wkh hqg qdqfh rqo| derxw 8 rxw ri wkhp1 Dffruglqj wr rxu iudphzrun/ d YF vhdufkhv iru d ghdo e| srvwlqj d odujhu qxpehu ri qdqflqj rhuv1 Ghshqglqj rq pdunhw wljkwqhvv/ vkh lv deoh wr vwulnh d ghdo rqo| rq d iudfwlrq ri wkhp dqg hqgv xs zlwk d pxfk vpdoohu sruwirolr ri upv/ vhh htxdwlrq +8, lq Er{ 41 Wkh ghvluhg vhdufk lqwhqvlw| dqg/ wkxv/ khu sruwirolr vl}h lv dfklhyhg li wkh pdujlqdo hruw frvw ri vhdufklqj iru dqrwkhu ghdo lv htxdo wr h{shfwhg surwv zklfk lv wkh suredelolw| ri vwulnlqj d ghdo wlphv khu vkduh lq wkh mrlqw vxusoxv ri wkh up/ vhh +9,1 Reylrxvo|/ li wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{ glplqlvkhv wkh vkduhg vxusoxv ri YF edfnhg upv/ lw wkhuhe| uhgxfhv vhdufk hruw1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ hdfk YF zloo hqg xs zlwk d vpdoohu sruwirolr1 Jlyhq wkh {hg qxpehu ri YFv/ wkh qxpehu ri YF edfnhg vwduw0xs upv pxvw ghfolqh/ vhh +D1:, ri wkh dsshqgl{1 Wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{ wkxv uhgxfhv qrw rqo| wkh txdolw|/ exw dovr wkh txdqwlw|

ri YF edfnhg lqyhvwphqwv lq rxu iudphzrun1

Zh fdq qrz frqvlghu wkh htxloleulxp lpsdfw rq wkh qxpehu ri edqn qdqfhg hq0 wuhsuhqhxuv1 Vlqfh wkh wd{ uhtxluhv d kljkhu sulfh ri lqqrydwlyh jrrgv wr doorz edqn qdqfhg upv wr euhdn hyhq/ pdunhw vl}h lq +:, ri Er{ 4 pxvw vkulqn1 Vlqfh wkh txdolw|

dgmxvwhg vxsso| ri YF edfnhg upv ghfolqhv/ wkhuh lv lq sulqflsoh dq dpeljxlw| lq wkh hhfw rq wkh qxpehu ri edqn qdqfhg upv1 Li wkh pdunhw vkduh ri YF edfnhg upv lv vpdoo dw wkh rxwvhw/ krzhyhu/ wkh ghfolqh lq pdunhw vl}h vxuho| grplqdwhv dqg irufhv edqn qdqfhg upv wr ohdyh wkh lqgxvwu|1 Hyhq wkrxjk zh frqvlghu rqo| d vpdoo wd{ lqfuhdvh/

zh h{shfw d uvw rughu zhoiduh orvv1 Li wkh vhdufk htxloleulxp lv h!flhqw/ wkhuh duh qr zhoiduh frqvhtxhqfhv iurp d fkdqjh lq pdunhw wljkwqhvv158 Lq wkh suhfhglqj vxevhfwlrqv/

zh kdyh lghqwlhg d glvwruwlrq zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh h{whqw ri YF lqyroyhphqw lq wkhlu sruw0 irolr frpsdqlhv dqg kdyh vkrzq wkdw pdqdjhuldo dgylfh lv lqh!flhqwo| orz lq wkh pdunhw htxloleulxp1 Vlqfh wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{ ixuwkhu glvfrxudjhv dgylfh zklfk lv douhdg| wrr orz dw wkh rxwvhw/ lw hqwdlov d uvw rughu zhoiduh orvv1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ wkh fdslwdo jdlqv wd{

58Vhdufk h!flhqf| krogv iru@/ holplqdwlqj wkh hhfw ri pdunhw wljwkqhvv lq +D144,1

57

Referencer

RELATEREDE DOKUMENTER

Wr frqfoxgh/ zh kdyh wzr glvwlqfw fdvhv1 Zkhq q q W / zkdw kdsshqv zkhq wkh uhodwlyh qxpehu ri vnloohg zrunhuv lqfuhdvhv lv wkdw/ dowkrxjk wkh fkdqfh ri jhwwlqj d mre lq wkh

Venture capital. The companies have many ideas, but often lack the capital and resources to realise them. The food strate- gies could help pave the way for raising venture

account of heterogeneous capital, as developed by the Austrian school, reveals exchange prob- lems (i.e., transaction costs) that are relevant to economic organization but neglected

Drawing on the institutional approach to business strategy in emerging markets, this thesis set out to explore the barriers to venture capital found in the

oktober 1949 for hydrauliske presser og dele hertil, hydrauliske akkumulatorer, hydrauliske pumper, hydrauliske kakaopresser, hydrauliske ka- kaosmørpresser,

SDVWH[SHULHQFHV$GGLWLRQDOO\WKHFDVHVWXGLHVVKRZWKDWLQRUJDQL]DWLRQDOVHWWLQJV WKHUH DUH PXOWLSOH FRPPLWPHQWV WR PXOWLSOH LGHQWLWLHV DQG WKDW

PLQLPXP FDVK oRZ 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ ZH KDYH QR ZD\ WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ WKHVH FDVHV 7KH IROORZLQJ nJXUH VKRZV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI PLQLPXP FDVK oRZ LQ GDWD DQG LQ WKH EHQFKPDUN PRGHO

Finally, a higher capital gains tax raises the demand for entrepreneurship, since the tax reduces the returns to e¤ort and thus cuts into the success rate, so that more …rms must