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BUILDINGS ROLE IN THE CLIMATE CRISIS – STATUS, POSSIBILITIES AND NEED

INAUGURAL LECTURE

PROFESSOR HARPA BIRGISDÓTTIR

29.09.2021

(2)

SUSTAINABILITY

(3)

SUSTAINABILTY

Environment Economy Social

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(4)

CLIMATE URGENCY

September 16

th

2021 August 6

th

2021

1990

(5)

BUILDINGS

9% of the global workforce is related to buildings

187.000 in Denmark

We spend 90% of our time inside buildings Living

Work Education etc.

30-40% of our environmental challenges can be associated to buildings

Global warming

Resource consumption Waste generation

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(6)

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS RELATED TO BUILT ENVIRONMENT ON GLOBAL SCALE

CO 2

CO

2

Embodied

Emissions related to Materials used in buildings

Operational

Emissions related to Operational energy consumption

CO

2

CO

2

11% 28%

(7)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

MY RESEARCH AREA UNTIL NOW LCA & SUSTAINABILITY

2009-now 2001-2005 Experience from practice

Previously

LCA of Roads and waste management at DTU

Now mostly

buildings and built

environment

at AAU

(8)

MY RESEARCH AT AAU (2009-now)

Sustainability Assessment of buildings

Development of LCA tools

Analysis of environmental impacts in the built environment Development of

methods to

evaluate

environmental

impacts in the

built environment

(9)

SUSTAINABILTY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(10)

SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS

NATIONAL LEVEL DGNB

VSC

DGNB DGNB

(11)

SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS

EUROPEAN LEVEL European Level(s)

Level s

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(12)

SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

(13)

OUR RESEARCH – TO INDUSTRY AND TO ACADEMIA

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(14)

OUR RESEARCH – TO INDUSTRY AND TO ACADEMIA

Academic papers Tool and analysis

(15)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

• March 5 th 2021

• Danish National Strategy for Sustainable Construction

• Including limit values for GHG

emissions (CO 2 ) from new

construction from 2023

(16)

• How did we get there?

• How did our research at BUILD contribute?

• How can our on-going research at BUILD contribute to the future reductions?

• Are these requirements meeting the

urgent needs for reduction?

(17)

THE PAST VS NOW

Development of the operational energy requirements

350

KWh/m2

20 60 years

Kilde Energistyrelsen

Focus on building life cycle

Use phase

End of life stage Benefits and loads

beyond the system boundary

3

4 5

Recycling

Landfill

2 Product

stage Construction

phase 1

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(18)

BUILDING LIFE CYCLE

[P ha se s] [M od ul es ] Raw m at er ial su pp ly Tr an sp or t M an uf ac tu rin g

Product phase

A1 A2 A3

Tr an sp or t C on str uc tio n in sta lla tio n pr oc es s

Construction phase

A4 A5

Us e M ai nt ena nc e Rep ai r

Use phase

Ref ur bi sh m en t

Rep la cem en t

Operation energy use Operation water use

B1 B2 B3 B4 B5

B6

B7 De -c

on str uc tio n d em ol iti on Tr an sp or t W ast e pro ce ssi ng Di sp os al

End of life phase

C1 C2 C3 C4

Po te nt ia l f or re cy cl in g, reu se, rec ov er y Outside

system the

D

Future scenarios

(19)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

FOCUS IN RESEARCH

LCAbyg

New construction Whole life carbon Embodied carbon

Existing buildings Renovation

Biogenic materials

Circular strategies Method development,

simplification and

harmonisation

Urgency

(20)

Vision

5

Mainstreaming the LCA discipline in the built environment – by bringing it from “inside University walls” to “Building Design Practice”

LCAbyg DEVELOPMENT

Development of thorough evaluation methods

Correctness in calculation and evaluation

Sound simplification and usability

Accessibility of sound data

LCAbyg

Digitalization (BIM, EPD) 1

2

3

4

5

(21)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

FOCUS IN RESEARCH

LCAbyg

New construction Whole life carbon Embodied carbon

Existing buildings Renovation

Biogenic materials

Circular strategies Method development,

simplification and

harmonisation

Urgency

(22)

METHOD DEVEL O PMENT

1

(23)

METHODOLOGICAL CHOICES IMPORTANCE FOR RESULTS

Project:

IEA Annex 57 Project:

Freja Nygaard Rasmussen phd

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(24)

METHOD DEVEL O PMENT

2

(25)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

BUILDING LIFE CYCLE – AND TIMING

End-of-life C3-4 Stage Replacements B4

Product stage A1-3

0 years 50 years

B6 Operational energy use

GWP [kg CO

2

EQ/m

2

/building area]

Upfront carbon emissions Future carbon emissions (scenarios)

(26)

BUILDING LIFE CYCLE – AND TIMING

End-of-life C3-4 Stage Replacements B4

Product stage A1-3

0 years 50 years

B6 Operational energy use

GWP [kg CO

2

EQ/m

2

/building area]

Upfront carbon emissions Future carbon emissions (scenarios)

(27)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

BUILDING LIFE CYCLE – AND TIMING

End-of-life C3-4 Stage Replacements B4

Product stage A1-3

0 years 50 years

B6 Operational energy use

GWP [kg CO

2

EQ/m

2

/building area]

Upfront carbon emissions Future carbon emissions (scenarios)

(28)

BUILDING LIFE CYCLE – AND TIMING

0 years 50 years

B6 Operational energy use

GWP [kg CO

2

EQ/m

2

/building area]

Upfront carbon emissions Future carbon emissions (scenarios)

(29)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

BUILDING LIFE CYCLE – AND TIMING

0 years 50 years

B6 Operational energy use

GWP [kg CO

2

EQ/m

2

/building area]

Upfront carbon emissions Future carbon emissions (scenarios)

(30)

WHY ALL THIS FOCUS ON TIME?

(31)

TIMING OF EMISSIONS Reduction of emission of GHG gasses with 70%

compared to 1990 2030

Climate neutral society 2050 We need to reduce emissions

as fast as possible to be able to meet the Paris agreement

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(32)

FOCUS IN RESEARCH

LCAbyg

New construction Whole life carbon Embodied carbon

Existing buildings Renovation

Biogenic materials

Circular strategies Method development,

simplification and

harmonisation

Urgency

(33)

NEW CONSTRUCTION

WHOLE LIFE CARBON & EMBODIED CARBON 1 NATIONAL LEVEL

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(34)

REPORT:

WHOLE LIFE CARBON ASSESSMENT OF 60 DANISH BUILDING CASES Purpose

• To establish sufficient data background on the climate

impact of buildings in Denmark over their life cycle.

• On the basis of this, possible

reference values are calculated

and suggested

(35)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

WHOLE LIFE CARBON

(50 YEARS REFERENCE STUDY PERIOD)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

kgCO2-ækv/(m2*yr)

Case-buildings

BygningsdeleEmbodied DriftOperational energy

(36)

IMPORTANT LESSONS FOR WHOLE LIFE CARBON OF NEW BUILDINGS

1. The importance of embodied 2. The timing of emissions

28%

72%

GWP kg CO2equivalents/m2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Reference study period (years) Production of

materials (A1-A3)

Replacements:

- Floor (15 years) Replacements:

- Roof (40 years) GWP -embodied

GWP –building operation

500 400 300 200 100 0

1. Product stage 3. Use stage 4. End-of-life stage

Replacements:

- Floor (15 years) - Windows (30 years) - Heating system (30 years) - Façade (30 years)

Replacements:

- Floor (15 years) - Windows (30 years) - Heating system (30 years) - Façade (30 years)

(37)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

IMPORTANT LESSONS FOR WHOLE LIFE CARBON OF NEW BUILDINGS

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

kgCO2-ækv/(m2*yr)

Case-buildings

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

kgCO2-ækv/(m2*yr)

Case-buildings

3. Large potential to reduce!

6,5- 14,5

3,7- 10.8

2.2 x

2.9 x

Embodied Operational energy

(38)

HOW WERE THE RESULTS USED ?

(39)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

CLIMATE PARTNERSHIPS SUGGES- TIONS OF LIMIT VALUES (IN 2020)

Building regulation

kg CO2/m2/year Voluntary sustainability class kg CO2/m2/year

2021 12 8,5

-- --

2030 6 3,5 - 4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

kgCO2-ækv/(m2*år)

BR 2021

FBK 2021

BR 2030

FBK 2030

(40)

NEW NATIONAL STRATEGY

(2021)

(41)

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

CO2 CO2

CO2

Threshold limit

value for 2025 Threshold limit

value for 2025 Threshold limit

value for 2029

Requirement for LCA calculation without threshold limit value

Threshold limit value of 12 kg CO2-eq/m2/year

Threshold limit value of

8kg CO2- eq/m2/year

Threshold limit value of

7kg CO2- eq/m2/year

Threshold limit value of

6kg CO2- eq/m2/year

Threshold limit value of

5kg CO2- eq/m2/year Revised

threshold requirement:

e.g. of 10,5kg

CO2-eq/m2/year

Revised threshold requirement:

e.g. of 9kg

CO2-eq/m2/year

Revised threshold requirement:

e.g. of 7,5kg

CO2-eq/m2/year

Building regulation 12 kg CO2/m2/year

Voluntary sustainability class

8 kg CO2/m2/year

Building regulation 7,5 kg CO2/m2/year

Voluntary sustainability class

5 kg CO2/m2/year

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(42)

NATIONAL STRATEGY LIMIT VALUES (IN 2021)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

kgCO2-ækv/(m2*år)

BR 2023 FCO2 2023

BR 2029

FCO2 2029

(43)

NEW CONSTRUCTION

WHOLE LIFE CARBON & EMBODIED CARBON 2 INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(44)

EMBODIED IMPACTS ARE IMPORTANT

But methods different and comparison

is difficult

(45)

EMBODIED IMPACTS ARE IMPORTANT

Project:

IEA Annex 72

(n=67) (111) (60)

Existing

Standard New

Standard New

Advanced

100 100

75 75

50 50

25 25

0 0

All buildings (Residential and Office)

Embodiedand operationalGHG emissions, average [kgCO2eq/m2a] Shareof embodiedGHG emissions [%]

Embodied Carbon Operational Carbon

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(46)

EMBODIED IMPACTS ARE IMPORTANT – AND TIMING MATTERS

(47)

NEW CONSTRUCTION

WHOLE LIFE CARBON & EMBODIED CARBON 3 EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(48)

NEED FOR EU HARMONISED BENCHMARKS (ONGOING RESEARCH)

• Call for benchmarks due to different European policies and initiatives, e.g.

• Revision of Energy Performance of Building Directive

• Level(s)

• EU Taxonomy

• Embodied Carbon Baseline in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France and

Netherlands.

• Science based targets based on carbon

budgets and absolute sustainability

(49)

NO DOUBT THAT WE NEED TO REDUCE CLIMATE IMPACTS RELATED TO BUILDINGS,

BUT WHAT DO WE HAVE IN THE TOOLBOX?

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(50)

IDENTIFICATION OF DIFFERENT DESIGN

STRATEGIES THAT REDUCE EMBODIED CARBON

INCREASED WOOD

CIRCULAR STRATEGIES

RESEARCH PROJECTS AT BUILD

(51)

BIOGENIC MATERIALS

INCREASED USE OF WOOD IN BUILDIGS

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(52)

CLIMATE IMPACTS FROM BUILDINGS WITH STRUCTURAL MATERIALS OF

WOOD

Wood Other

kgCO2-ækv/(m2*år)

CASE BUILDINGS

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

(53)

WOODEN BUILDINGS HAVE LOWER CLIMATE IMPACTS

226 scenarios from literature shows that wooden buildings have a factor 0,3 to 0,6 lower climate impacts compared to other materials Increased use of wood

Villum foundation and Realdania

Project:

Camilla E. Andersen PhD

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(54)

WOOD AND TIMING OF EMISSIONS

Reduction of emission of GHG gasses with 70%

compared to 1990 2030

Climate neutral society 2050

(55)

DYNAMIC LCA MODELLING

TIMING IS IMPORTANT

• GHG accumulate in the atmosphere

• The sooner the emission occur, the longer time the GHG have to

accumulate in the atmosphere

•  larger potential Global warming

Current emissions Future emissions

Increased use of wood Villum foundation and Realdania

Project:

Camilla E. Andersen PhD

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(56)

DYNAMIC LCA MODELLING

Timing is especially important for the use of wood in buildings

- CO 2 + CO 2

(57)

DYNAMIC LCA MODELLING

Timing is only partly included in current methods

-

+

CO2uptake, e.g. in Denmark (-/+ rule) CO2neutral, e.g. in Sweden

Increased use of wood Villum foundation and Realdania

Project:

Camilla E. Andersen PhD

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1 -250

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

kg CO2-ækv/m2

year

-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

kg CO2-ækv/m2

year

(58)

DYNAMIC LCA MODELLING

Timing is only partly included in current methods

-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

kg CO2-ækv/m2

year

-

-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

kg CO2-ækv/m2

year

CO2uptake, e.g. in Denmark (-/+ rule) CO2neutral, e.g. in Sweden

When is the real +

CO 2 uptake

(59)

DYNAMIC LCA MODELLING

Timing is especially important for the use of wood in buildings

Now

+ +

Future

Increased use of wood Villum foundation and Realdania

Project:

Camilla E. Andersen PhD

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

The ongoing research in our research project

b

Development of a model that includes the timing of emissions –

• Show the effect of emissions now and in future

• Show the effect of temporary sequestration of carbon from wood in buildings

(60)

CIRCULAR STRATEGIES

(61)

Project:

Leonora PhD

MANY CIRCULAR STRATEGIES EXISTS WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS?

Disassembly

Material selection

Adaptability

Modularity

Secondary materials

Durability Prefabrication Prefabrication

Standardization

Component and material optimisations

Reuse buildings, components and materials

Optimized shapes and dimensions

Accessibility

Layer independence

Material storage

Short use

Symbiosis Short use

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(62)

MANY CIRCULAR STRATEGIES TARGETING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND TIMESCALES

kg CO2equivalents/m2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Reference study period (years)

500

400 300 200

100 0

Building

Operational energy

Upcycling Design for

disassembly

(63)

Project:

Leonora PhD, Freja PhD and others

MANY CIRCULAR STRATEGIES TARGETING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND TIMESCALES

kg CO2equivalents/m2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Reference study period (years)

500

400 300 200

100 0

Building

Operational energy

Upcycling Design for

disassembly

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(64)

CICULAR STRATEGIES

REUSE AND RECYCLING OF CONCRETE

REUSE OF BRICKS REUSE OF WINDOW GLASS

(65)

ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF REUSE AND RECYCLING

Circularity city

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20% RUSED BRICKS RECYCLED CONCRETE REUSED GLASS

(66)

ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF REUSE AND RECYCLING

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20% RUSED BRICKS RECYCLED CONCRETE REUSED GLASS

(67)

ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF REUSE AND RECYCLING

Circularity city

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20% RUSED BRICKS RECYCLED CONCRETE REUSED GLASS

(68)

MANY CIRCULAR STRATEGIES TARGETING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND TIMESCALES

kg CO2equivalents/m2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Reference study period (years)

500

400 300 200

100 0

Building

Operational energy

Upcycling Design for

disassembly

(69)

Project:

Leonora PhD

POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF DESIGN FOR DISASSEMBLY

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(70)

EXISTING BUILDINGS

(71)

EXISTING BUILDINGS

0 years 50 years

GWP [kg CO2EQ/m2/building area]

0 years 50 years

GWP [kg CO2EQ/m2/building area]

0 years 50 years

GWP [kg CO2EQ/m2/building area]

New constructions Existing constructions

Embodied

Operation Embodied

Operation

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(72)

EXISTING BUILDINGS

0 years 50 years

GWP [kg CO2EQ/m2/building area]

0 years 50 years

GWP [kg CO2EQ/m2/building area]

0 years 50 years

GWP [kg CO2EQ/m2/building area]

New constructions Existing constructions

Embodied

Operation Embodied

Operation

(73)

URGENCY

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(74)

Are the requirements entering the Danish building regulation meeting the urgent needs for reduction?

URGENCY

(75)

pup

TOP DOWN BOTTOM UP VS

BR based on baselines

Voluntary CO2 class

Paris agreement 2,0C Paris agreement 1,5C

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(76)

CARBON BUDGET

Focus on the:

• Importance of use of carbon budget

• Lack of clarity for defining the budgets

• Review of current approaches

• Crucial need for defining the

temporal scale

(77)

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

Steffen et al. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science

Grafics:Adapted from Steffen, Will et al. 2015: Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. In: Science 347:6223 Safe operating space

Boundary not reached

Boundary reached Boundary crossed

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(78)

ABSOLUTE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY EXAMPLE OF: CLIMATE CHANGE

SHARE OF BOUNDARRY

(79)

ABSOLUTE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY EXAMPLE OF: CLIMATE CHANGE

M.Sc. Project of Pernille Ohms, Camilla Andersen.

Supervisors: Morten Rydberg, Michael Hauschild, Morten Birkved, Freja Nygaard Rasmussen, Harpa Birgisdottir

SH A RE O F SA FE O PER A TI N G SP A C E O C C UP IED 100 10

1

0

Ref UP TMF IMF AD Q

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(80)

HOW FAR ARE THE CO 2 LIMITS IN BR FROM BUDGETS

ACCORDING TO PARIS AGREEMENT?

(81)

HOW FAR ARE THE CO 2 LIMITS IN BR FROM BUDGETS ACCORDING TO PARIS AGREEMENT?

Industrial Phd project: Lise Hvid Horup Sørensen, Rambøll

Supervisors: Morten Ryberg, Michael Hauschild, Harpa Birgisdottir, Christian Thuesen, Andreas Qvist Secher and Gitte Gylling

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1 Voluntary CO2 Legislation

(82)

HOW FAR ARE THE CO 2 LIMITS IN BR FROM BUDGETS ACCORDING TO PARIS AGREEMENT?

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Carbon budget, EPC+AR+EA Carbon budget, EPC+U+EA Legislation*

Voluntary Sustainability Class*

YEAR

(83)

FUTURE VISION

(84)

MY VISION FOR

FURTHER RESEARCH

New constructions: Challenges, opportunities,

reduction strategies 1.

Existing buildings: Optimization of climate benefits of renovation and how to develop legal requirements

for renovation 2.

Continuously developing LCA tool: Early stages,

digitalization, data 3.

Harmonization 4.

(85)

MY VISION FOR

FURTHER RESEARCH

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

Roadmap development

• Transition to urgent need for reductions before 2030 and climate neutral construction sector in 2050

• Design strategies

• Optimization

• Geometry

• Biogenic materials

• Circular strategies

• Future emissions

• New materials

• Timing of emissions

(86)

MY VISION FOR TEACHING WITHIN THE FIELD

• All students studying subjects related to the built environment should have a minimum knowledge of LCA and a large part needs deep knowledge

STUDENTS

• The Danish buildings sector needs to understand that extensive education is needed – which cannot be covered by 1-2 day courses

CONTINUING EDUCATION

(87)

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

URGENCY - TIMEOWER CLIE

IMPACTS

(88)

My grandmother: Born in 1925 – 96 years in 2021

PRIVATE STORYCLIE IMPACTS

My children are born in 2007, 2013 and 2017 They can be 96 years in 2103, 2109 and 2113

Time: Emissions now and their effects in year 2100 are relevant for us!

kg CO2equivalents/m2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

500

400 300 200

100

0

(89)

IPCC

Which scenarios are we aiming for our future

generations?

2,8-4,6 C increase

2,1-3,5 C increase

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(90)

2,8-4,6 C increase

2,1-3,5 C increase

IPCC

Which scenarios are we aiming for our future

generations?

(91)

2,8-4,6 C increase

2,1-3,5 C increase

IPCC

Which scenarios are we aiming for our future

generations?

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

(92)

2,8-4,6 C increase

2,1-3,5 C increase

IPCC

Which scenarios are we aiming for our future

generations?

(93)

IPCC

Which scenarios are we aiming for our future

generations?

2 9 . 0 9 . 2 0 2 1

We still have a

choice today!

Referencer

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