for Denmark?

(1)

COP21 in Paris: What does it mean

for Denmark?

(2)

Professor Katherine Richardson www.sustainability.ku.dk

At the Sustainable Development Summit on 25 September 2015, UN Member States will adopt the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which includes a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, fight inequality and injustice, and tackle climate change by 2030.

The SDGs, otherwise known as the Global Goals, build on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), eight anti-poverty targets that the world committed to achieving by 2015. The MDGs, adopted in 2000, aimed at an array of issues that included slashing poverty, hunger, disease, gender inequality, and access to water and sanitation. Enormous progress has been made on the MDGs, showing the value of a unifying agenda underpinned by

(3)

(4)

(5)

Planetary Boundaries:

Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the

Anthropocene (Nature,

461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 -

2009)

(6)

Humanity’s 12,000 years of grace

(7)

”Planetary Boundaries 2.0”

15 January 2015

(8)

Two ”CORE” boundaries:

Climate Biosphere Integrity

(9)

(10)

Nitrogen application:

(11)

Development in global emissions over time

Respecting the 2 ^o guardrail would mean we can release ~ 1100 Gt CO ₂ between now

and 2050

(Meinhausen et al 2009, Clark et al 2014)

At current emission rates,

the remaining atmospheric

garbage dump for GHG will

be used in ~ 20 years

(12)

-39% reduction by 2030 (from 2010 levels) -72% reduction by 2050

To achieve the goal of holding

human-caused global warming to < 2 ^o :

(13)

How much known fossil fuel reserve needs to remain unburned up to 2050 to remain within the 2 ^o guardrail?

With CCS Without CCS

Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Coal

33% 49% 82% 35% 52% 88 %

(14)

Climate Change Science and society:

• Societal perception of Climate Change: when the science is so ”certain”, why is there still so much doubt among non-scientists?

• Climate Change is usually communicated as a prediction problem. In fact it is a RISK

problem

(15)

The COP process is an exercise in developing

mechanisms to manage environmental resources at the global level!

Regarded as part of a process COP 15 looks much

more like a succes

than the failure it

was portrayed to

be!

(16)

COP 21, Paris 2015

• We GOT an agreement!!

– No binding agreement on emissions (pledges) – No binding agreement on financing

– 2 ^o guardrail is reconfirmed (strengthened!) – ALL countries are ”equal” players

– Some agreement on what and how to measure/report – An agreement to make new (more ambitious) pledges in

the coming years

COP 21 provides a clear signal of the direction in

which the international community is headed!

(17)

For Denmark:

1990 emission sources:

• 59% heat and electricity

• 7% open environment

• 2% NS oil and gas

• 16% transport

• 16% agriculture

EU Emission reduction goal of 80-95% in relation to 1990 by

2050

1. Goal of removing fossil fuels from heat and electricity by 2050 MUST be retained!

2. An 80% cannot be achieved without a focus on TRANSPORT and AGRICULTURE!

Is Denmark a climate ”duks”??

(18)

An alternative view of the COP process:

(19)

The ”COP

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Series1 Series2

Emissions reduction targets ref 1990 EU, USA

Domestic!

EU and USA:

China is where it really gets interesting!

% re du ct ion wrt 1990

Increasing ambition level signalling:

• Climate is taken seriously

• Decision-makers are beginning to believe in both the TECHNOLOGY necessary and the

ECONOMY in

addressing climate

change.

(20)

A scenario for China’s 2030 emissions intensity target

(60-65% reduction in emissions intensity 2005-2030) Source: Frank Jotzo, ANU

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Annual GDP growth rates

• China’s 2030 target implies that emissions intensity will fall ~4%pa from 2005 to 2030.

• This is historically unprecedented, but achievable given China’s potential for energy efficiency, structural change and shifting away from coal. China is on track for this target, and for the 2020 target of a 40-45% emissions intensity reduction.

• The CO2 emissions trajectory could be quite flat, as in the example in the graph, in line with experience in developed countries.

• Motivations for decarbonization in China: improving air pollution and energy security, and leadership in new energy industries.

(21)

for Denmark?

COP21 in Paris: What does it mean

for Denmark?

Planetary Boundaries:

Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the

Anthropocene (Nature,

461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 -

2009)

Humanity’s 12,000 years of grace

”Planetary Boundaries 2.0”

15 January 2015

Two ”CORE” boundaries:

Climate Biosphere Integrity

Nitrogen application:

Development in global emissions over time

Respecting the 2 o guardrail would mean we can release ~ 1100 Gt CO 2 between now

and 2050

At current emission rates,

the remaining atmospheric

garbage dump for GHG will

be used in ~ 20 years

-39% reduction by 2030 (from 2010 levels) -72% reduction by 2050

To achieve the goal of holding

human-caused global warming to < 2 o :

How much known fossil fuel reserve needs to remain unburned up to 2050 to remain within the 2 o guardrail?

With CCS Without CCS

Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Coal

33% 49% 82% 35% 52% 88 %

Climate Change Science and society:

• Societal perception of Climate Change: when the science is so ”certain”, why is there still so much doubt among non-scientists?

• Climate Change is usually communicated as a prediction problem. In fact it is a RISK

problem

The COP process is an exercise in developing

mechanisms to manage environmental resources at the global level!

Regarded as part of a process COP 15 looks much

more like a succes

than the failure it

was portrayed to

be!

COP 21, Paris 2015

• We GOT an agreement!!

– No binding agreement on emissions (pledges) – No binding agreement on financing

– 2 o guardrail is reconfirmed (strengthened!) – ALL countries are ”equal” players

– Some agreement on what and how to measure/report – An agreement to make new (more ambitious) pledges in

the coming years

COP 21 provides a clear signal of the direction in

which the international community is headed!

For Denmark:

1990 emission sources:

• 59% heat and electricity

• 7% open environment

• 2% NS oil and gas

• 16% transport

• 16% agriculture

EU Emission reduction goal of 80-95% in relation to 1990 by

2050

1. Goal of removing fossil fuels from heat and electricity by 2050 MUST be retained!

2. An 80% cannot be achieved without a focus on TRANSPORT and AGRICULTURE!

Is Denmark a climate ”duks”??

An alternative view of the COP process:

The ”COP

Emissions reduction targets ref 1990 EU, USA

Domestic!

EU and USA:

China is where it really gets interesting!

% re du ct ion wrt 1990

Increasing ambition level signalling:

• Climate is taken seriously

• Decision-makers are beginning to believe in both the TECHNOLOGY necessary and the

ECONOMY in

addressing climate

change.

A scenario for China’s 2030 emissions intensity target

(60-65% reduction in emissions intensity 2005-2030) Source: Frank Jotzo, ANU

• China’s 2030 target implies that emissions intensity will fall ~4%pa from 2005 to 2030.

• This is historically unprecedented, but achievable given China’s potential for energy efficiency, structural change and shifting away from coal. China is on track for this target, and for the 2020 target of a 40-45% emissions intensity reduction.

• The CO2 emissions trajectory could be quite flat, as in the example in the graph, in line with experience in developed countries.

• Motivations for decarbonization in China: improving air pollution and energy security, and leadership in new energy industries.

Environmental management at the

global level??

Respecting the 2 ^o guardrail would mean we can release ~ 1100 Gt CO ₂ between now

human-caused global warming to < 2 ^o :

How much known fossil fuel reserve needs to remain unburned up to 2050 to remain within the 2 ^o guardrail?

– 2 ^o guardrail is reconfirmed (strengthened!) – ALL countries are ”equal” players