Aalborg Universitet
IDA´s klimaplan 2050
Tekniske energisystemanalyser og samfundsøkonomisk konsekvensvurdering - Baggrundsrapport
Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Lund, Henrik; Karlsson, Kenneth
Publication date:
2009
Document Version
Også kaldet Forlagets PDF
Link to publication from Aalborg University
Citation for published version (APA):
Mathiesen, B. V., Lund, H., & Karlsson, K. (2009). IDA´s klimaplan 2050: Tekniske energisystemanalyser og samfundsøkonomisk konsekvensvurdering - Baggrundsrapport. Ingeniørforeningen i Danmark, IDA.
General rights
Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.
- Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.
- You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain - You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal -
Take down policy
If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at vbn@aub.aau.dk providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Downloaded from vbn.aau.dk on: September 22, 2022
Technical energy system analysis, effects on fuel consump- tion and emissions of greenhouse gases, socio-economic consequences, commercial potentials, employment effects and health costs
BACKGROUND REPORT
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
2
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 Background Report
Authors:
BrianVadMathiesen,AalborgUniversity HenrikLund,AalborgUniversity
KennethKarlsson,RISØͲDTU
Copyright©2009theauthors
Cover:Rune.Anders.Lars Printer:IDA'sPrintCentre
PublishedbyTheDanishSocietyofEngineers,IDA,August2009 KalvebodBrygge31Ͳ33
1780CopenhagenV.
Telephone33184848 Fax33184899 EͲmail:ida@ida.dk
ThetechnicalenergysystemanalysesandestimationsofeconomicconsequencesforIDA'sClimatePlan2050arepresentedin theBackgroundReport.ThisPlanistheDanishcontributiontotheinternationalprojectFutureClimate.TheReporthasbeen completedduringtheperiodDecember2008toJuly2009.IDA'sClimatePlan2050wasreleasedon11May2009asapublic consultationdraft.Adjustmentshavebeendoneafterthepublicconsultationperiod.ThefinalresultsoftheanalysesinIDA's ClimatePlan2050arepresentedinthisReport,andalongwithadescriptionofboththeassumptionsandtheanalysesinthe ClimatePlan.
3
BackgroundReportto
IDA’sClimatePlan2050
Technicalenergysystemanalysis,effectsonfuelconsumptionand emissionsofgreenhousegases,socioͲeconomicconsequences,commercial
potentials,employmenteffects,andhealthcosts
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1.000
2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050
Reference IDA
PrimaryenergyconsumptioninIDA2015,2030and2050,PJ
Export Wind,PV, wavepower Solarthermal Biomass Naturalgas Oil Coal
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2000 2008 2015 2030 2050
MilliontonCO2Ͳeq.
ClimategasemissionsinCO2Ͳeq.
Reference IDAsClimatePlan2050
2015 2030 2050
SocioͲeconomiccostsintheClimatePlan
CO2Ͳcosts
Fuel
Operations and maintenance Investments
0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000
2015 2030 2050
Mio.DKK/year
SocioͲeconomiccostsinthereference
Ͳ 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050
Reference IDA
MillionDKK/year
Healthcosts
Transport Boilers(heat) PowerandCHP plants
BrianVadMathiesen,AalborgUniversity HenrikLund,AalborgUniversityand
KennethKarlsson,RisøͲDTU
August2009Ͳ1.000 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000
Mio.DKK/year SocioͲeconomicsavingsinmeasuresin2030
0 50 100 150 200
2004 IDA2030
Potentialexports,billionDKK/year
Businesspotential
5
Tableofcontents
1 Preface_________________________________________________________________________9 2 Summary_______________________________________________________________________11 2.1 100%RenewableEnergyandLargeReductionsinfuelconsumption____________________________11 2.2 Largereductionsingreenhousegasemissions_____________________________________________16 2.3 BettersocioͲeconomicsolutionswithmorerenewableenergy________________________________17 2.4 Healthcosts________________________________________________________________________20 2.5 Commercialpotentials________________________________________________________________21 2.6 Employmenteffects__________________________________________________________________23 3 Introduction____________________________________________________________________25 4 Background_____________________________________________________________________31 4.1 IDA’sClimatePlan2050startingpoint____________________________________________________31 4.2 IDA’sClimatePlan2050referenceenergysystem__________________________________________31 4.3 AdditionalelementsinIDA’sClimatePlan2050____________________________________________31 5 MethodsandAssumptions________________________________________________________33 5.1 EnergySystemAnalysesmodelandsimulationtoolEnergyPLAN_______________________________33 5.2 Assumptionsconcerningmethodologyforenergysystemsanalyses____________________________34 5.3 Assumptionsfortechnicalfacilitiesandnewtechnologies____________________________________35 5.4 Assumptionsconcerningforecastofconsumptionfrom2030to2050__________________________36 5.5 Assumptionsforfuelprices,electricityprices,andCO2quotaprices____________________________36 5.6 Taxesandleviesonfuelsforproductionofelectricityandheat________________________________38 5.7 AssumptionsconcerninganalysisofthesocioͲeconomicimpactsfortheenergysystem____________39 5.8 Assumptionsforestimationofhealthcostsfromemissionsfromenergysystems_________________42 5.9 Assumptionsconcerningcommercialpotentialsandemploymenteffects_______________________47 6 Thereferenceenergysystem______________________________________________________49 6.1 Assumptionsregardingtheconsumptionandproduction____________________________________49 6.2 Thereferenceenergysystemfor2015and2030___________________________________________51 6.3 Thereferencefor2050________________________________________________________________55 6.4 Technicalassumptions________________________________________________________________56 6.5 Theprimaryenergysupplyinthereferenceenergysystems__________________________________57 7 SubͲobjectivesinIDA'sClimatePlan2050____________________________________________59 8 Energysystemsandenergyproduction______________________________________________61 8.1 Onshoreandoffshorewindturbines_____________________________________________________61 8.2 Photovoltaic________________________________________________________________________62 8.3 Wavepower________________________________________________________________________63 8.4 WasteincinerationCHP_______________________________________________________________63 8.5 Geothermalenergy___________________________________________________________________65 8.6 Fuelcells___________________________________________________________________________67 8.7 Oilandgas__________________________________________________________________________69 9 Energyconsumptioninbuildings___________________________________________________71 9.1 Reductionofelectricityconsumptioninhouseholds_________________________________________71 9.2 BOLIG+standardinnewbuildingconstructionfrom2020____________________________________72 9.3 Heatingofexistingbuildings___________________________________________________________73 9.4 Costsofheatsavings_________________________________________________________________74 9.5 Heatsavingsindistrictheatingareas_____________________________________________________75 9.6 Heatsavingsoutsidedistrictheatingareas________________________________________________77
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
6
9.7 Conversionstodistrictheating_________________________________________________________78 9.8 Heatpumps,solarthermal,andbiomassboilersoutsidedistrictheatingareas___________________80 9.9 Establishmentofsolarheatingindistrictheatingareas______________________________________83 10 Industryandservice_____________________________________________________________85 10.1 Reductionoftheelectricityconsumptioninindustryandservices_____________________________85 10.2 Districtcooling______________________________________________________________________86 10.3 Fuelsavings________________________________________________________________________87 10.4 ExpansionofCHPproductioninindustry_________________________________________________88 10.5 Conversiontobiomassandelectricityconsumptioninindustry_______________________________88 11 Transportandmobility___________________________________________________________91 11.1 Handlingofthetransportdemandforpassengercarsandvans_______________________________91 11.2 Moreefficientroadtransportwithelectricvehicles,etc._____________________________________92 11.3 Expansionoftherailwaysystem________________________________________________________95 11.4 Efficiencyimprovementsinaviationandshipping__________________________________________97 11.5 Biofuelsinthetransportsector_________________________________________________________98 11.6 Thetransportscenarios______________________________________________________________101 12 AgricultureandBiomass_________________________________________________________103 12.1 BiomasspotentialforenergyandmaterialsinDenmark____________________________________103 12.2 UseofBiomass_____________________________________________________________________104 12.3 Biogas____________________________________________________________________________105 13 TheEnergySystemsinIDA'sClimatePlan2050______________________________________107 13.1 TheEnergySysteminIDA2015________________________________________________________107 13.2 TheEnergySysteminIDA2030________________________________________________________109 13.3 TheEnergySysteminIDA2050________________________________________________________111 13.4 Combinedresultsforfuelconsumptionandrenewableenergy_______________________________114 14 GreenhouseGasEmissionsinIDA'sClimatePlan2050________________________________117 14.1 Initiativesbeyondchangesintheenergysystem__________________________________________117 14.2 Resultingemissionsofgreenhousegases________________________________________________119 14.3 Sensitivityanalyses__________________________________________________________________119 15 Socioeconomicanalysisoftheenergysystems_______________________________________121 15.1 OverallsocioeconomicimpactanalysisofIDA2015andIDA2030_____________________________121 15.2 Overallsocioeconomicimpactanalysisofa100%renewableenergysystem____________________125 15.3 Electricitymarketexchangeanalyses___________________________________________________126 15.4 Sensitivityanalyses__________________________________________________________________128 16 SocioͲeconomiccostsandCO2emissionsforindividualmeasures_______________________131 16.1 Analysesofindividualinitiatives_______________________________________________________131 16.2 Windturbines,wavepower,andphotovoltaic____________________________________________131 16.3 ImprovedwasteincinerationCHP,geothermalenergy,andlargesolarthermalsystems___________132 16.4 Largeheatpumpsindistrictheatproduction_____________________________________________133 16.5 Flexibleelectricityconsumption_______________________________________________________133 16.6 FuelcellsinCHPplants_______________________________________________________________133 16.7 ElectricitysavingsinhouseholdsandnewhousesbuiltinBOLIG+standards____________________133 16.8 Districtheatingandheatsavings_______________________________________________________137 16.9 Heatpumpsandsolarthermalinindividuallyheatedhouseholds_____________________________137 16.10 Savings,biomass,anddistrictcoolinginindustry__________________________________________138 16.11 Asmallergrowthinthetransportdemandandanincreasedefficiencyofships__________________138 16.12 Conversiontoelectricvehicles_________________________________________________________138
7
16.13 Expansionandelectrificationoftherailwaynetwork_______________________________________139 16.14 Bioethanol_________________________________________________________________________139 17 Healthcosts___________________________________________________________________141 17.1 Calculationofemissionsforindividualtechnologies________________________________________141 17.2 Healthcostsoftheindividualelementsoftheenergysystems_______________________________142 17.3 Totalhealthcosts___________________________________________________________________144 17.4 Sensitivityanalyses__________________________________________________________________147 18 Commercialpotentials___________________________________________________________149 18.1 Differentpotentials_________________________________________________________________149 18.2 Totalassessmentofthecommercialpotential____________________________________________151 19 Employmenteffects_____________________________________________________________153 19.1 Calculationoftypesofcost___________________________________________________________153 19.2 Totalemploymenteffect_____________________________________________________________154 AppendixI–ConversionfromtheDanishEnergyAuthority’sdataandresultsfromthereconstruction inEnergyPLAN_____________________________________________________________________156 AppendixII–CostsofthetechnologiesinIDA’sClimatePlan2050___________________________160 AppendixIII–Forecastofeconomicdevelopmentandenergydemandfrom2030to2050_______162 AppendixIV–Technologydataforfuturehightemperaturesolidoxideelectrolyserandcurrentalkali electrolysersBrianVadMathiesen,AalborgUniversity,January2009in[60].__________________171 AppendixV–Externalcostsofemissionsfromenergysystems______________________________176 AppendixVI–AdjustmentsofIDA2030andIDA2050.____________________________________181 AppendixVII–OthercostsusedinIDA2015,IDA2030andIDA2050_________________________182 AppendixVIII–ListofexpensesforindividualmeasuresinIDA2030_________________________183 References________________________________________________________________________187
9
1 Preface
Ithasbeenagreatchallengetoassemblethethreadsinthisclimateplanandtoperformthecollected analysesoftheenergysystemsonbehalfofTheDanishSocietyofEngineers,IDA.Notleastbecauseit looksattheenergysystemintheshorttermin2015,inthemediumtermin2030,andinthelongterm in2050.Thevisioninthisplanisa100percentrenewableenergysystem.Itwasnotpossibleto assembleanintegratedplanwithoutthoseactiveinIDA'stechnicalspecialistsocietiesandgroups,the IDAemployees,andtheprojectcoordinatorsforthethemesintowhichtheprojecthasbeendivided.
TherehasalsobeeninvaluablesupportfortheworkfromlargepartsoftheDanishenergysector.
Therefore,allofthesedeserveapersonalthankyou.DuringthedevelopmentoftheBackgroundReport wehavedrawnespeciallyuponarangeofspecialistsfromuniversitiesandfirms.Theyhavecontributed directlywithvariousinputsandweowethemaspecialthankyou.Togetherwiththesepeopleithas beenpossibletoprocurethelargeamountofdatanecessaryfortheanalyses:
NiclasScottBentsen,PhDStudent ForestandLandscape,CopenhagenUniversity
HelgeBachChristiansen,Engineer IDAEnergi
AndersDyrelund,DirectorMarketing RambøllA/S
ClausFelby,Professor ForestandLandscape,CopenhagenUniversity
PeterFrigaard,HeadofDepartment AalborgUniversity,DepartmentofCivilEngineering JohnBøgildHansen,DirectorSystemsDevelopment TopsoeFuelCellA/S
MogensWeelHansen,Engineer Weel&SandvigA/S
HelgeHolmͲLarsen,DirectorBusinessDevelopment TopsoeFuelCellA/S JacobIlsøe,EnergyConsultant Birch&KrogboeA/S
JohnTangJensen,TechnicalConsultant DanskFjernvarme(DanishDistrictHeatingAssociation) LotteJensenͲHolm,BusinessDevelopmentManager TopsoeFuelCellA/S
PerHomannJespersen,SeniorLecturer RoskildeUniversity
KajJørgensen,SeniorScientist RisøͲDTU,SystemAnalysisDivision
BetinaKamuk,ProjectLeader RambøllA/S
PeterKarnøe,Professor CopenhagenBusinessSchool
AlexLandex,Lecturer DTUTransport
JesperMagtengaard,Engineer DongEnergy
AllanMahler,TechnicalManager DongEnergy
OttoAnkerNielsen,Professor DTUTransport
JanErikNielsen,Engineer Dansksolvarme(DanishSolarThermalAssociation) LarsHenrikNielsen,SeniorScientist RisøͲDTU,SystemAnalysisDivision
PerNielsen,ManagingDirector EMDA/S
JanRunager,ManagingDirector ARCONsolvarme
SvendSvendsen,Professor BYGͲDTU
HenrikTommerup,SeniorLecturer BYGͲDTU
PerAlexSørensen,Engineer PlanEnergis/i
GöranWilke,ManagingDirector TheDanishElectricitySavingTrust KimWinther,EnvironmentalEconomist DONGEnergy
Finallyweoweathankyoutoourclosestcolleagues,whohavehelpedwithspecialistinputsand
corrections:FredeHvelplund,PoulA.Østergaard,MarieMünster,MortenBojeBlarkeandMetteReiche Sørensen,allfromAalborgUniversity,DenmarkandDavidConnolly,UniversityofLimerick,Ireland.
BrianVadMathiesen,HenrikLundandKennethKarlsson August24,2009
11
2 Summary
ThecentraltechnicalandeconomicresultsoftheBackgroundReportaredescribedinthischapter.
Pleasenotethattheresultsarebasedonassumptions,subjectiveanalyses,etc.,whicharedescribedin thefollowingchapters.
2.1 100%RenewableEnergyandLargeReductionsinfuelconsumption
ThecurrentprimaryenergysupplyinDenmark,i.e.fuelconsumptionandrenewableenergyfor productionofelectricityandheatforhouseholds,transportandindustry,isapprox.800PJ.Ifnew initiativesarenottaken,itisexpectedthatenergyconsumptionwilldecreasemarginallyuntil2015,but thenincreasegraduallyuntil2050toabout950PJ.InitiativesareproposedinIDA'sClimatePlan2050 whichcanreduceprimaryenergysupplyto707PJin2015,556PJin2030,and442PJin2050.Atthe sametime,theshareofrenewableenergyfromwindturbines,photovoltaic,solarthermal,wave energy,andbiomasswillbeincreased.Theshareofrenewableenergyinthereferenceenergysystems increasesfromabout16percentin2008to22percentin2015andtoabout25Ͳ29percentin2030and 2050.TheshareofrenewableenergyintheClimatePlanincreasesto30percentin2015and47per centin2030.In2050theentireDanishenergysystem,incl.transport,isbasedon100percent renewableenergy.TheprimaryenergysupplyisillustratedinFig.1.Theenergyflowsforthereference energysystemin2030,IDA2030andIDA2050,areillustratedinFig.2toFig.4.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1.000
2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050
Reference IDA
PrimaryenergyconsumptioninIDA2015,2030and2050,PJ
Export Wind,PV, wavepower Solarthermal Biomass Naturalgas Oil Coal
Fig.1,PrimaryEnergySupplyinIDA'sClimatePlan2050.
TheenergysysteminIDA2015isbasedonmeasureswhichcanberealisedwithcurrenttechnology.
AlthoughsomeofthemeasuresinIDA2015planmustbeimplementedoveraperiodfrom2010to 2020,theyareconsideredasfullyimplementedby2015fortheanalyses.InIDA2030largepartsofthe transportsystemarechanged,districtheatingsystemsareheavilyexpanded,therearemoreefficient
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
12
powerplants,morematureandnewrenewableenergytechnologiesareintroduced,andfurtherenergy savingsimplemented.Ingenerallargepartsofthefossilfuelconsumptionarereplacedbyelectricity demands,especiallywithintransport,withbatteryelectricvehiclesandelectricallypoweredtrains.
Fig.2,Sankeydiagramofthereferenceenergysystemfor2030.
13
Fig.3,SankeydiagramofIDA2030inIDA’sClimatePlan2050.
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
14
Fig.4,SankeydiagramofIDA2050inIDA’sClimatePlan2050.
15
InIDA'sClimatePlan2050,anenergysystemisdesignedwhichisbasedon100percentrenewable energy,startingfromtheinitiativesproposedinIDA2015andIDA2030.Thisispartlytoensurethat theseenergysystemsdonotstandinthewayofthisobjectiveandpartlybecauseoftheDanish Government'sobjectivethatDenmarkshallbe100percentindependentoffossilfuelsandnuclear power,whentheoilandnaturalgasresourcesstop.Theresultisthatthisispossible,butthereisakey issuesurroundingtheconsumptionofbiomass:shouldbiomassbeusedtogenerateelectricityfordirect useorshoulditbeusedfortheproductionofsyntheticfuels.Abalancemustbemetbetweenthesetwo requirementstoutilisethebiomassresourceeffectivelyandtherefore,anestimateispresentedinthis reportforthisbalance.
FurthersavingsarepresentedandmorerenewableenergyisintroducedinIDA2030towarda100per centrenewableenergysystem.Therearesufficientdomesticbiomassresourcestomeetdemandfor boththeIDA2015andIDA2030scenarios.However,thereareadditionalchallengesinthe2050energy systemwhen284PJofbiomassisusedintheClimatePlan.Thiscanpotentiallybesuppliedwith
domesticresources,butconverselyitwillnotleavemanyresourcesforproducingothermaterialgoods, ifthisistobebasedonbiomassaswell.Therefore,duetotheselimitationsondomesticbiomass,there isafurtherchallengeinthefutureregardingthefuelconsumptioninindustryandaviation.Itis
uncertainifthesedemandscanbemetusingdirectorindirectelectricityproduction(i.e.electrolysis),or whetherfurthersavingsmustbeintroduced.
A100percentrenewableenergysystemhasbeendesignedwhichpotentiallycanbemaintainedby domesticbiomassresources.ItmusthoweverbeemphasisedthatthereisnoobjectiveintheClimate Plannottodointernationaltradewithbiomass.HowevertheClimatePlanensuresthatDenmarkdoes notmerelybecomedependentonimportsofbiomass,insteadofbeingdependentonimportsofoil, naturalgasandcoalwhichisthecaseinthereferencescenario,onceDenmarkdoesnothaveany resourcesleftintheNorthSea.
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
16
2.2 Largereductionsingreenhousegasemissions
TheinitiativesintheClimatePlanreducetheemissionofgreenhousegasesbyabout90percentin2050 incomparisonto2000.Theenergysystemconstitutesonlyapartofthegreenhousegasesemissions.
FortheClimatePlanthispartwillbereducedto34milliontonnesCO2in2015,19milliontonnesCO2in 2030,andiscompletelyremovedin2050.Beyondthis,reductionsingreenhousegasemissionsfrom industrialprocessesandfromagricultureareproposed.Consideringthese,theemissionsofgreenhouse gassesin2050canbereducedto7.2percentoftheemissionsin2000.However,ifanextra
contributionfromaircraftduetodischargesathighaltitudesisalsoincluded,thereductionin2050is 10.2percentoftheemissionin2000.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2000 2008 2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050
Reference IDA
MilliontonCO2Ͳeq.
ClimategasemissionsinCO2Ͳeq.
Aviation(extra contribution) Industry Agriculture Energy
Fig.5,EmissionsofgreenhousegasesinIDA’sClimatePlan2050.
17
2.3 BettersocioǦeconomicsolutionswithmorerenewableenergy
TheClimatePlanwillbeimplementedoveraperiodfromnowuntil2050bycontinuouslyreplacing wornͲoutfacilitieswhentheirlifetimeexpires,meaningtheyneedtobereplacedregardlessof implementingtheClimatePlan.Therefore,asapointofdepartureforthisstudy,theexpensesare calculatedasextraexpensesthroughinvestinginbetterfacilitiesincomparisontothereferenceenergy system.Therearehoweverexceptionstothis.
ThesocioͲeconomiccostsarecalculatedasannualexpensesineachoftheyears2015,2030,and2050.
TheannualcostsintheClimatePlan'senergysystemsarecomparedwiththepaymentsinthereference ineachoftheapplicableyears.Thecostsarecategorisedunderfuelcosts,operationsandmaintenance costs,andinvestmentcosts.Arealinterestrateof3percentisusedindepreciationinvestments.The economicanalysesarebasedonthelatestassumptionsregardingfuelpricesandCO2quotacosts,which weredefinedbyTheDanishEnergyAuthorityinMay2009[1].
Threefuelpricelevelsareused.Themiddlepricelevelisbasedoncurrentfuelpriceswhichcorresponds toanoilpriceof$122/barrelaccordingtotheDanishEnergyAuthority.Thehighfuelpriceisbasedon thosethatoccurredinthespring/summerof2008andcorrespondtoanoilpriceof$132/barrel[2].The lowpricelevelisbasedonassumptionswhichTheDanishEnergyAuthorityusedinitsforecastinJuly 2008andcorrespondstoanoilpriceof$60/barrel[3].CalculationsarealsodonewithlongͲtermCO2 quotacostsof229DKK/tonneand458DKK/tonnefor2030and2050respectively.TheCO2quotacosts donotincludeallcoststotheeconomy,suchasfloodingforexample,butareonlyanticipatedquota costs.Ifthesetypesofeffectsareincludedinthecalculation,therewillbeaneconomicadvantagefor theenergysystemsintheClimatePlan.
2015 2030
SocioͲeconomiccostsintheClimatePlan
CO2Ͳcosts
Fuel
Operationsand maintenance Investments
0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
2015 2030
MillionDKK/year
SocioͲeconomiccostsinthereference
Fig.6,SocioͲeconomiccostsin2015and2030.
AfteranalysingtheimplicationsofthesevariousfuelandCO2costs,thegeneralpictureisthatDenmark willachieveasignificantlybettereconomywithbothIDA2015andIDA2030,thanwiththereference scenarios.In2015and2030thedifferencewiththemiddlefuelandCO2priceassumptionsis9and20
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
18
billionDKK/yearrespectively,asdisplayedinFig.6.InIDA2015itisimportanthowevertonotethata partofthemeasuresareundertakenintheperiod2010to2020.Ontopofthisthereareadvantages regardingsavedhealthcosts,commercialpotentials,andemploymenteffects.
InadditionamorerobustsituationisreachedwiththeIDAClimatePlanasthecombinedcostsfor energyarelesssensitivetofluctuationsinoilpricesandCO2costs.Therewillbeagainevenwithfuel priceshalfashighasTheDanishEnergyAuthorityrecommendsatthemoment.Itisworthnotingthat between50and95billionDKK/yearwillbeusedforfuelsfromnowuntil2030,dependingonthefuel prices.ItisproposedintheClimatePlanthattheseexpendituresbereducedtobetween29and51 billionDKK/year,againdependingonthefuelprices.
TwoadvantagescanbeobtainedfromtheIDA2015and2030proposals.Firstly,theyarelessexpensive thanthereferenceenergysystems,andsecondly,thesesystemsaresignificantlylesssensitiveto fluctuationsinthefuelprices.Inthefutureonemusthoweverexpectthattheworldwillcontinueto experiencefluctuatingfuelpricesandneitherconstantlyhighnorconstantlylowoilprices.
0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000
60$/bͲ229CO2 122$/bͲ229CO2 132$/bͲ229CO2 60$/bͲ458CO2 122$/bͲ458CO2 132$/bͲ458CO2 60$/bͲ229CO2 122$/bͲ229CO2 132$/bͲ229CO2 60$/bͲ458CO2 122$/bͲ458CO2 132$/bͲ458CO2
Ref.2050 IDA2050
MillionDKK/year
SocioͲeconomiccosts
CO2Ͳcosts
Fuel
Operationsand maintenance Investments
Fig.7,SocioͲeconomycostsin2050atdifferentfuelandCO2prices.
IDA2050isbasedon100percentrenewableenergy.Thecostsinthisstudyshouldbeseenasafirst attempttoestimatethecostsoftheeconomyinsuchasystem.Suchestimatesarehoweverassociated withsignificantuncertainties.In2050thereisawiderangeofmeasures,suchastheelectricityandheat savings,whicharealteredonlymarginallyinrelationtothemeasuresinIDA2030.Themostimportant changesarethattheshareofrenewableenergyisraisedsignificantlyintheelectricalsystem,thepower plantsaremoreefficient,syntheticfuelsfromelectrolysishavereplacedsomeofthebiomassdemand,
19
andthetransportsectorutilisesmorerailtransportationandincludesmorebatteryelectricalvehicles.
Itmustbeemphasisedthattheresultsaredependentonthefuelpriceassumptions,aswellasthe significantstructuralsocietalchangesthatareproposedinIDA2050.IDA2050isrobustevenwithlarger changesinthebiomasspricesthananalysedhere.Theresultsindicatethattherearepotentialsavingsof over25billionDKK/yearinthemiddlefuelpricescenarioforIDA2050comparedtothereference,as illustratedinFig.7.
TheaboveͲmentionedestimationofcoststotheeconomyisinaclosedsystemwithoutinternational electricitymarketexchange.Analysesoftheconsequencesofinternationalelectricityexchangeonthe NordPoolhavealsobeenconducted(TheNorthEuropeanPowerExchange).Theanalysesarestarted usingelectricitypricesfromanormalyearintheNordPoolareaandwithfluctuatingfuelandCO2quota costs.Thenetincomeisacombinedcalculationofimport/exportincomesincludingbottleneckincomes, aswellasvariousCO2quotaandfuelcostswhenthereiselectricitymarketexchangewiththe
surroundingcountries.TheresultsindicatethatinsituationswithlowfuelpricesandlowCO2quota prices,incomeisprimarilythroughelectricityexports,whileinthecaseofhighfuelpricesincomeis primarilythroughimports(i.e.moneycanbeearntbyexportoritislesscostlytoimportthanto produceelectricitydomestically).Therefore,thereisalsoadifferenceintheearningsfromelectricity marketexchangeinthereferenceandIDAscenarios.TheIDAenergysystemsprovidehigherincomes, primarilybecauseofmoreefficientpowerplantscombinedwithavailablecapacitywhenthe
consumptioniscoveredbywindturbines,etc.ThiswillhoweverresultinlargerCO2emissionsin Denmarkandincreasedcoalorbiomassconsumption.
Allinall,theeconomicbenefitsoftheIDAClimatePlanduetotheinternationalexchangeofelectricityis insignificantcomparedtotheeconomicbenefitsduetotheannualcostsofthesystemitself,which amountstoseveralbillionDKK/yeartotheadvantageofIDA2015andIDA2030aspresentedpreviously.
Inthereferencesforboth2015and2030,aswellasinIDA2015andIDA2030,anincreaseinthe transmissioncapacitytoothercountriesfrom2,500MWto5,000MWonlyprovidesanopportunityfor marginalextraincomeswhichareinsignificantincomparisontothecostsassociatedwiththisextra capacity.Theconclusionsoftheelectricityexchangeanalysesofthe2050energysystemsareestimated tobeinkeepingwiththeaboveresults.Itmustbeemphasisedthattheresultsfortheelectricitymarket exchangeanalysesfor2050aresimplyanestimateandarebasedonTheDanishEnergyAuthority's expectedelectricitypricein2030andnot2050.Itmustalsobeemphasisedthattheanalysesofaclosed energysystemwithoutelectricitymarketexchangearenotanexpressionthatinternationaltradeof electricityshouldnotbethecaseinthefuture.Thisisonlydoneinordertoensurethattheenergy systemsintheClimatePlanarenotdependentonthis,ordependentoncurtailingfluctuatingrenewable energyincertainsituationsastheenergysystemsintheClimatePlancanavoidthis.
Evenlargechangesinassumptionsregardinginternationalelectricitytradeinthemeansforelectricity marketexchangearenotcriticalforthecomparison.Thelargedifferenceincostsbetweenthevarious systemscanbesummedupbystatingthattheClimatePlanhaslargeinvestments,whilethereference haslargefuelcosts.Hencethecostcomparisoncompletedhereisespeciallysensitivetobothchangesin thefuelpricesandchangesintheinterestrateandinvestmentrequirements.Therefore,analyseshave beendoneatthreefuellevelsandtwoCO2offsetpricelevels.However,noneofresultschangethe
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
20
generalpicturethattheClimatePlanhaslowercoststhanthereference.Noraretheresultschanged whentheinvestmentlevelsareincreasedby50percent,althoughtheearningsdobecomelower.The sameisthecaseiftherealinterestrateisat6percentinsteadof3percent.Itmustbepointedout howeverthatthisappliestothecombinedpackage.Withanalteredinterestrateorscopeof investment,severaloftheindividualmeasureswillthenhaveanegativeeconomicresult.
2.4 Healthcosts
Thehealthcostshavebeenestimatedonthebasisofsixdifferentemissionstotheair:SO2,NOx,CO, particulates(PM2.5),mercury,andlead.InIDA'sClimatePlan2050thehighestreductionsareinthe emissionsofNOx,CO,andsmallparticulates,whiletherearesmallerreductionsintheotheremissions.
Thereducedemissionsareprimarilycausedbylowercoaldemandsforthepowerplants,lessdieseland petrolinthetransportsector,reduceddemandforoilinindustry,andareduceddemandforwoodin individualhouseholdheatingͲsystems.Ontheotherhand,theemissionsincreasemarginallybecauseof morestraw,wood,biogas,etc.
Thehealthcostscalculatedherearebasedonthelatestpublisheddataforcostsconnectedtodifferent technologiesindifferentpointsources.Thecostsarebasedonenumeratedlostworkdays,hospital admissions,healthdamage,deaths,etc.Thecombinedhealthcostsestimatedforthereferenceenergy systemsfor2015,2030,and2050areapproximately14to15billionDKK/year,whichfitwellwithother studies.InFig.8thehealthcostshavebeenestimatedbysector.Itisimportanttoemphasisethatthe totalhealthcostspresentedhereonlygiveanindicationofthetotalcostsbecauseofhealtheffects.For amoreprecisemeasureofthehealthcosts,theenergysystemscenarioswouldneedtobeanalysed withthenewpreconditionsinairͲpollutionanalysesmodellingtools.
InIDA2015andIDA2030thesecostshavebeenreducedtoapproximately13and8billionDKK respectively.Thustherearesavingsinthehealthcostsofapprox.2billionDKKin2015and
approximately7billionDKKin2030,ifthemeasuresintheclimateplanareimplemented.Approx.0.9 billionDKKofthesavedcostsin2015arelocatedinDenmarkandabout2.3billionDKKin2030.Therest ofthesavingsinhealthcostsareplacedintheneighbouringcountries.Thehealthcostsincludedare basedexclusivelyonthesixemissionsanddonotincludeenvironmentalcostsduetodamagetonature andanimallife,norcostsfromextractionoffuelsandmaterialsabroad,e.g.,fromacoalmineinSouth Africa.Thusitisaconservativeevaluationofexternalitycosts.Ifthesocioeconomicenvironmentaland healthcostsduetotheCO2emissionsontopofthesixemissionsanalysedhereareincluded,a
conservativeestimateshowsthattheaboveͲmentionedsavingsareapproximatelytwiceaslarge.The healthcostshavealsobeenanalysedfor2050.Herethepotentialsavingsinhealthcostsare9.5billion DKK,outofwhich2.4billionDKKissavedinDenmark.
21
Ͳ 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050
Reference IDA
MillionDKK/year
Healthcosts
Transport Boilers(heat) PowerandCHP plants
Fig.8,Combinedhealthcostsfromtheenergysystemsdividedbysector.
2.5 Commercialpotentials
AsystematicimplementationofthetechnologiesthatareincludedinIDA'sClimatePlan2050will includesignificantopportunitiestoincreaseexports.Thesecommercialpotentialsareevaluatedforthe ClimatePlanwithastartingpointinthecurrentandhistoricexportofenergytechnologiesinDenmark.
ItisestimatedthatIDA'sClimatePlan2050cancreateapotentialexportofenergytechnologythat climbsfromthepresentapprox.64billionDanishcrownsin2008toapprox.200billionDKK/yeargoing forwardto2030.
Itmustbeemphasisedthatthistypeofquantificationisassociatedwithsignificantuncertaintiesand mustbeconsideredanestimate.Howevertheroughestimateprovidesagoodoverviewofthe
technologieswhichcanbeexploitediftheClimatePlanisimplemented.Itmustalsobeemphasisedthat thesepotentialearningscomeontopoftheearningsthatareshownthroughthechangedoperation andstructureintheenergysystemitself.TheresultsareillustratedinFig.9.
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
22
0 50 100 150 200
2004 IDA2030
Potentialexports,billionDKK/year
Businesspotential Building improvements Biofuelplants
Bioethanol
Heatpumps
Fuelcells
Wavepower
Solarthermal
Photovoltaic
Electricvehicles
Elect.oilandgas supply
Windturbines
Districtheatingand combinedheatand powerplants(CHP)
Fig.9,CommercialpotentialsperyearthroughimplementationofIDA'sClimatePlan2050
23
2.6 Employmenteffects
Thestartingpointfortheestimationoftheemploymenteffectisthedivisioninannualcostsforthe ClimatePlancomparedwiththatinthereference.Tobeginestimatingtheemploymenteffects,the annualcostsforboththeClimatePlanandthereferencewerebrokendownintoinvestmentsand operations.AnimplementationoftheClimatePlan2050includesachangeinthecostsforfuelto expendituresforinvestmentsandhence,theDanishsocietywillnotbeburdenedwithextracostsfor energy.SuchchangeswillincludehigherDanishemploymentwhilealsoimprovingthebalanceof payments.ThiseffectisincreasedfurtheriftheaboveͲmentionedcommercialpotentialsintheformof increasedexportsarealsorealised.
IntheClimatePlan,expendituresforfuelsarereducedwhileexpendituresforoperationsand
maintenanceareincreased.Inaddition,anextrainvestmentofjustbelow1trillionDKKismadeinthe ClimatePlancomparedtothereference,whichisspreadoutovertheperiodgoingforwardto2050.For eachcosttype,animportsharehasbeenestimatedbasedonexperiencesfrompreviouscollectionsof foreignexchangeandemploymentdataforinvestmentinenergyfacilities.Inrelationtotheprevious data,ageneralupwardadjustmentoftheimportsharehasbeendone,asfromexperiencetheseare increasing.
Forthesharethatisleftafterremovingtheimportshare,twojobsarecreatedforeachmillionDKK.This includesderivedjobsinthefinanceandservicesector.Itshouldbeemphasisedthattheseestimatesare subjecttouncertaintiesandagainitisemphasisedthattheyarebasedonadjustednumbersfrom previouslycollecteddata.TheextraemploymentcreatedinDenmarkbytheClimatePlancompared withthereferencehasbeenestimatedwiththesemethodsandassumptionstobeapproximately30Ͳ 40,000jobs.Jobswillbelostinthehandlingoffossilfuels,butjobswillbecreatedthroughinvestments inenergytechnology.Inthelongterm,theemploymentwillsettledownasinvestmentsreduceandthe transitiontoa100percentrenewableenergysystemiscomplete,sothatthereareabout15,000extra jobsintheIDAClimatePlancomparedtothereferencefor2050.Inpracticethisreductionwillprobably spreadoveraperiodofyears.
Itisimportantforanumberofreasonstoplacethelargeemploymenteffortasearlyaspossibleinthe period.Thefirstreasonisthatthelabourforceasashareofthetotalpopulationisfallingintheentire periodgoingforwardtoabout2040andtherefore,thelargestlabourcapacitytoundertakeachangeof theenergysystemisinthebeginningoftheperiod.ThesecondreasonisthattheDanishNorthSea resourceswillrunoutduringthenext20years.Henceitisimportanttodevelopsuchenergysystems andchangesasearlyaspossibleintheperiod.Finally,thepotentialincreaseintheexportofenergy technologieswhichcanreplacetheoilandnaturalgasexportswillbereducedandcoulddisappear entirelyinthecourseof10Ͳ20years.
TheaboveͲmentionedeffectsontheemploymentdonotincludethejobcreationasaresultof increasedexportofenergytechnology,i.e.thecommercialpotentialsdescribedabove.These
advantageswillbeanadditionalbenefitoftheClimatePlan.Withanassumptionofa50percentimport share,anannualexportof200billionDKKwillgenerateintheorderofupto200,000jobs,dependingon wheretheexportswouldhavebeenwithouttheClimatePlan,theextentofunemployment,andthe
IDA’s Climate Plan 2050 – Background Report
24
potentialforthesepeopletobeemployedinotherexporttrades.Inrelationtothis,itshouldbenoted thateverythingelsebeingthesame,ashareofDanishlabourwillbemadeavailableastheoilandgas extractionintheNorthSeacomestoanend.
