TYRA 2020-2022
Status October 2020
Energinet
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CONTENT
• General Basis/information (links)
• Analysis assumptions 2020-2023, slide 4
• Danish demand 2020-2040, slide 5
• Possible supply and demand 2020 in kWh, slide 6-9
• Possible supply and demand 2021 in kWh, slide 10-15
• Possible supply and demand 2020 in m 3 (12,1 kWh/m 3 ), slide 16-19
• Possible supply and demand 2021 in m 3 (12,1 kWh/m 3 ), slide 20-25
GENERAL BASIS/INFORMATION
1. Analysis assumptions 2020 from the Danish Energy Agency (DEA)
https://ens.dk/service/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/analyseforudsaetninger-til-energinet 2. Oil and gas resources from DEA. Resources and forecasts, published September 2020
https://ens.dk/ansvarsomraader/olie-gas/rapporter-om-olie-og-gasaktiviteter 3. Energinet homepage https://en.energinet.dk/Gas/Tyra/Supply-situation
4. Energinet homepage https://www2.gasmarketmessage.dk/SitePages/WelcomePublic.aspx 5. Total homepage https://www.dk.total.com/total-denmark/better-energy-projects-
denmark/tyra-redevelopment-tyra-gas-field-processing-90-nations-gas-production 6. Gas Storage Denmark https://gasstorage.dk/
7. ENTSOG Transparency platform https://transparency.entsog.eu/
8. PRISMA https://corporate.prisma-capacity.eu/
9. Energinet homepage Safe Storage level https://en.energinet.dk/Gas/Tyra/Safe-storage-level
ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS 2020, SUPPLY AND DEMAND EXCL. BALTIC PIPE (DEA)
ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS 2020, DEMAND DENMARK (DEA)
https://ens.dk/service/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/analyseforudsaetninger-til-energinet
Total gas consumption Denmark in GWh
Electricity and heat Industry Household Transport Other Electricity and heat
Split of gas consumption Denmark in GWh
Green gas Natural gas Gas consumption
TYRA 2020-2022
Possible supply and demand 2020
In kWh
POSSIBLE SUPPLY 2020
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
January Ferbruary March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Total supply
Forecast
POSSIBLE DEMAND 2020
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
ary ary rch ril y ne July st ber er er ber
GWh
Storage injection
Export Germany
Sweden
Denmark
Total demand
Forecast
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2020
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
January Ferbruary March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
Forecast
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2020
-1.000 1.000 3.000 5.000 7.000 9.000 11.000 13.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
ary ary rch ril y ne July st ber er er ber Storage voume in GWh
Average import Germany in GWh/day
Daily import Germany and storage volume
Average daily import Germany in GWh/day
Max. Net flow Ellund GWh/day
Left in storage end of month
Energinet Emergency gas in Gwh
Max. storage volume in GWh
Forecast
TYRA 2020-2022
Possible supply and demand 2021
In kWh
POSSIBLE SUPPLY 2021
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
January bruary March April May June July August tember ber mber cember
GWh
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Total supply
POSSIBLE DEMAND 2021
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
Total demand
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2021
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
ary ary rch ril y ne ly st ber er er ber
GWh
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2021
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500
January February March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Denmark
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500
January February March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Sweden
5000 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500
January February March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Nybro (South Arne)
5000 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Entry RES
-2.000 -1.500 -1.0001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.500-5005000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Storage facilities
5000 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500
January February March April May June July August September October November December
GWh
Net flow Ellund (+ for import)
POSSIBLE DAILY IMPORT GERMANY AND STORAGE VOLUME 2021
0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
uary ruary rch April May June July gust mber ber mber mber Storage voume in GWh
Average import Germany in GWh/day
Daily import Germany and storage volume
Average daily import Germany in GWh/day
Max. Net flow Ellund GWh/day
Left in storage end of month
Energinet Emergency gas GWh
Max. storage volume GWh
TYRA 2020-2022
Possible supply and demand 2020
1 m
3= 12,1 kWh
POSSIBLE SUPPLY 2020
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
uary ary rch April May June July gust ber ber ber ber
MCM
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Total supply
POSSIBLE DEMAND 2020
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
January Ferbruary March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
Total demand
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2020
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
January Ferbruary March April May June July August ptember October ovember cember
MCM
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
TYRA 2020-2022
Possible supply and demand 2021
1 m
3= 12,1 kWh
POSSIBLE SUPPLY 2021
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
uary ary rch ril May June July gust ber ber ber ber
MCM
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Total supply
POSSIBLE DEMAND 2021
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Storage injection Sweden
Denmark
Total demand
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2021
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
uary ruary rch April May June July gust mber ber mber mber
MCM
Storage withdrawal Import Germany Nybro
RES
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2021
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Denmark
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Sweden
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Nybro (South Arne)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Entry RES
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Net flow Ellund (+ for import)
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
January February March April May June July August September October November December
MCM
Storage facilities
POSSIBLE DAILY IMPORT GERMANY AND STORAGE VOLUME 2021
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0
uary ruary rch April May June July gust mber ber mber mber Storage voumein MCM
Average import Germany in MCM/day
