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5 Analysis of Empirical Data
“Researchers generate information by analysing data after its collection. Data analysis usually involves reducing accumulated data to a manageable amount, developing summaries, looking for patterns and applying statistical techniques.”
– Blumberg et al. (p.70).
So far in we have provided the reader with a thorough understanding of the main concepts in Scenario Planning as well as various methodologies for constructing scenarios. Furthermore we have applied System and Evolutionary Theory in a full-scale analysis that has provided an understanding of the theoretical foundation upon which the tool is built.
This chapter focuses on the empirical data gathered through our interviews as presented in 2.5.3.3 Selecting interviewees. Through the facilitation of an imaginary discussion between the interviewees the analysis will provide input to all of the research questions presented in 1.4 Problem Statement. Where previous chapters answered specific research questions the empirical data is relevant to all the questions. The many different perspectives provide value to thesis and add a practical dimension to the theoretical approach.
The following analysis will start with a discussion on why Scenario Planning is a good tool to envision the future through. Following this we will look deeper into the construction phase to understand what is important. Finally we will discuss whether scenarios can be evaluated and how this can be done.
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which “discussing what is uncertain instead of what is certain” (Boman, 5.10). This way of thought relates to what many interviewees’ replies, Henrik A. Sørensen’s gives an illustrative example:
“Now you are Columbus who is ready in Lisbon with his three ships, and you say what should we take with us for the future? We have no idea what lies on the other side. We think it is India, but we basically don’t know. What do you bring with you on the journey?”
(Sørensen, 28.50)
By applying the example of Columbus, Sørensen illustrates the uncertainty of the future and the necessity of being prepared for whatever you may encounter. Anders Sandberg, Ph.D. from Oxford University supports Sørensen by stating:
“The large merit of Scenario Planning is that it can shape a wide range of futures.
Compared to statistical modelling where one would think it gives an absolute truth, scenarios, due to the wide range, can show a truth somewhere in between and make us reflect on the future and what it might hold” (Sandberg, 7.55)
Analysing scenarios through the concept of variation enables an understanding of the view expressed by the interviewees. This underlines the usefulness of envisioning the future in multiple scenarios thus not subscribing to a uni-directional planning mode. The value of constituting the future as a series of equally possible future sets creates an understandable translation of what the contextual environment might hold for a company when looking into the future.
5.1.2 Scenarios as a tool for Decision Making
Apart from being a tool to envision possible futures, many of the interviewees underline the utility of the Scenario Planning as a foundation for decision making. Martin Kruse, senior futurologist,states: “Scenarios are a foundation for taking decision on which you can take a series of actions” (Kruse, 4.49). A number of quotes support this argument that Scenario Planning only brings value if actual decisions/actions are taken in direct consequence of the created scenarios. Otherwise the application of the tool is considered superficial.
In line with above Boman views scenarios as a way to “ask yourself what you need to do if one of the scenarios come true” (Boman, 8.50). In other words scenarios are a way in which decisions can be taken on the basis of the uncertainty embedded in the external environment. Sandberg asks the rhetorical question
“How can we make decisions under extreme uncertainty?” (Sandberg, 2.52). Scenario Planning as a tool for enabling decision-making is supported by both the system and evolutionary theoretical approach applied in
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the theoretical analysis. When viewing Scenario Planning as a system, one unit of analysis is “decision”.
Scenario Planning has to affect decisions affecting the performance of the company as illustrated in Dubin’s model applied to Scenario Planning (Chermack, 2005). Sandberg argues: “Scenarios should always affect decisions and be a tool for discussion” (Sandberg, 35.21).
A theoretical point that can be emphasized in relation to Scenario Planning is that it serves as imaginary feedback with which the variation of strategic decisions possibly taken by the company can be tested. This is best illustrated in a “wind tunnel” – a tool to stress test the organization under various circumstances.
Sørensen supports this view: “What is interesting in using Scenario Planning is the alertness it creates in the company” (Henrik, 21.05). Alertness defined as the potential consequences of a decision that has been tested.
This ties in well with the concept of requisite variety. Only by envisioning the future and testing your strategy based on this, you are able to build preparedness for the particular situation.
5.1.3 Scenarios Create Flexibility
In continuation of the points from our interviews; being able to envision the future, thus making it execution able in the form of actual decision-making, is the notion of a company being a self-correcting entity automatically adapting to the present environment. Boman touches upon this in the following quote:
“Creating an agile and flexible organization that can handle the changes that the future might hold” (Boman 11.30)
Agile and flexible are two important concepts in Scenario Planning. Constantly being aware what might lie ahead, and actively preparing for it to happen, creates an organization that lives up to the definitions of respectively agile and flexible. This lies directly in line with many of the points made in the system theoretical analysis. By ascribing the dissipative characteristics to the organization, and viewing it as an organic system, the notion of it being a self-producing entity arises. This is i.e. found through the concept anticipatory memory that creates the alertness Sørensen mentioned earlier in this section.
Van der Heijden’s interpretation of Scenario Planning emphasises the ability of the tool to reconstruct the way an organization conducts its business. This can be exemplified by implementing the learning loop mind framework on an employee level, restructuring the organization so it enables Scenario Planning to flourish etc. However through the interviews very little emphasis was put on these points. The practitioners appeared to only have experience in contributing to the actual scenario construction process whereas the organizational development perspective did not receive much attention. This could be due to Scenario
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Planning mainly seen as a strategy tool to be applied on particular areas of interest, whereas using it in a holistic organizational approach was not something our interviewees had experienced with.