28131420
Rotodynamic pumps ≤ 15 mm discharge •Not possible to match
28131430
Centrifugal pumps with a discharge outlet diameter > 15 mm, channel impeller pumps, side channel pumps, peripheral pumps and regenerative pumps
•
Dry well channel pumps for wastewater
•
ESCCi pumps
28131451
Centrifugal pumps with a discharge outlet diameter > 15 mm, single-stage with a single entry impeller, close coupled
•
ESCC pumps
28131453
Centrifugal pumps with a discharge outlet diameter > 15 mm, single stage with a single entry impeller, long coupled
•
ESOB pumps
28131455
Centrifugal pumps with a discharge outlet diameter > 15 mm, single-stage with double entry impeller
Not possible to match
28131460
Centrifugal pumps with a discharge outlet diameter > 15 mm, multi-stage (including self-priming)
•
Self-priming pumps
•
Vertical Multistage pumps
•
Horizontal Multistage pumps
28131471 Rotodynamic single-stage mixed flow or axial pumps
•
Dry well pumps for storm water, mixed flow and axial 28131475 Rotodynamic multi-stage mixed flow or axial
pumps
•
Dry well pumps for storm
water, mixed flow and axial
28131480 Other liquid pumps, liquid elevators Not possible to match
6.2 Market and stock data
This subtask presents market and stock data for each of the categories within the scope as defined in Task D1. As shown in Section 1, it is very difficult to match the proposed pump types into the official NACE codes used in PRODCOM, therefore the data presented in this section relies mostly on information provided directly by industry to the current study, or collected earlier for Lot 11, Lot 28 and Lot 29 preparatory studies.
The Europump Association assisted in establishing the figures for this review study. Three working groups were organised by the Europump Association for this task, one for clean water pumps, one for waste water pumps and one for swimming pool pumps, the latter being in collaboration with the European Union of Swimming pool and SPA Association (EUSA) working group. The working groups provided estimated sales numbers and energy consumption data for each subcategory of pumps.
When Europump performed the data collection, member companies had in view the total market of the European Union (EU28) and reported this accordingly. This means that the figures represent the entire EU28 market and not just the market share of the representative in the working groups.
Europump represents the majority of pump manufacturers as well as the pump market within Europe (i.e. 92 % market share99). The figures provided by Europump Association for this review study can be considered representative of the EU market as it can be assumed that the representatives of Europump have a firm idea of approximate size of the total market. Europump represents 14 national organisations from EU and 3 non-EU national organisations (Switzerland, Russia and Turkey). The 14 national organisations represent the EU countries with the largest pump manufacturing companies in EU.
In the swimming pool pumps Working Group, members from the European Union of Swimming pool and SPA Association (EUSA) provided data for these pumps. This working group is estimated to represent about 85 % of the European market for swimming pool pumps100.
6.2.1 Annual sales growth rate
Findings from previous preparatory studies, the impact assessment (Lot 11)101 and a recent report by the European Industrial Forecasting (EIF) on the world’s pump market102 (provided by Europump) have been consulted.
According to preparatory studies, the market for ESOB, ESCC and smaller submersible borehole and multistage pumps for clean water had significant growth in sales around 2007. However, it was anticipated that the sales would decrease and that possibly around present time to 2020 they would recover103. For the rest of clean water pumps in the scope of this project, the market was anticipated to have an annual growth rate of 3% from 2013 to 2040 according to preparatory study Lot 29 104. For wastewater and sewage pumps, the market was estimated to have a growth of 2-3% from 2012 to 2015, expecting to grow to 4-5% from 2015 to 2017 according to preparatory study Lot 28105. Lot 11 impact
99 The market share of the represented countries is stated in Lot 28 and Lot 29
100 Information provided by EUSA Working Group
101 Commission staff working document – Impact Assessment. Brussels 25.6.2012 SWD(2012) 178 final.
102 European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (2015). The World Pump Market 2015-2020. Volume I.
103 Lot 11 preparatory study on water pumps
104 Lot 29 preparatory study on clean water pumps
105 Lot 28 preparatory study on wastewater pumps
assessment106101 shows a constant increase in sales for all categories of pumps from 1990 to 2020. The estimated average growth rate per year from 1990 to 2000 is approximately 1.73%.
According to the German Federal Statistical Office, the production of liquid pumps (without hydro pumps) in 2013 reached €4.7 bn, which corresponds to slight growth (+3.3%) over the previous year. Rotary pump manufacturers took the biggest piece of the cake with more than 40%, while manufacturers of oscillating or rotating displacement pumps accounted for 10% each. In the first three quarters of 2014, production generated €3.5 bn. This is an increase of 1% compared to the same period in the previous year. The volume for the whole year 2014 is estimated once again at €4.7 bn.
The EIF report107102 on pump market provides the estimated forecasts for 2015-2020 in terms of market growth by end-use, which are based on (i) the fixed investment and analysis of requirements by each end-use sector, and (ii) the apparent consumption of pumps based on EU trade data. These forecasts have been used to revise the abovementioned growth rates from preparatory studies and impact assessment, as according to input from industry those used in preparatory studies were rather high.
The growth rate used in this study and presented by the impact assessment shows a growth rate (1.73% as average from 1990 to 2000), the European Industrial Forecasting report108102 estimates 1.26% - 1.64% growth for wastewater pumps in 2016-2020 and for clean water pumps the growth reduce from 2.01% in 2016 to 1% by 2020. Beyond 2020, the sales are expected to follow the trend of electric motors growth rate, although with a less drastic decline, where the growth rate will steadily reduce down to 0% by 2030.
The report did not provide information on swimming pool pumps and therefore growth rates from preparatory study Lot 29 have been used for estimating annual sales. Beyond 2020 the growth rates are difficult to predict, however the impact assessment of electric motors have expected that the growth will slow down reaching 0% by 2025. Due to the fact that pumps are usually operated with electric motors and often they are sold together, it can be expected that pumps would also follow the trend. However, since it was considered by the study team that slowing down to 0% by 2025 was rather drastic, it was assumed that growth will be slowing down from 2020 reaching 0% by 2030. The method for estimating the growth rates is detailed below.
6.2.2 Method for estimating growth rates
The estimation of growth rates was done using the EIF report, using data only from relevant end-uses (municipal water, municipal wastewater, industrial building and residential building). Data from industrial water/wastewater end-uses was not considered to estimate the growth rate, as no breakdown to water/wastewater applications in industry was available in the report nor in the excel file.
The data used to estimate the growth were the estimated 2015-2020 market growth forecasts in the EU by end-use provided in this report. Assuming growth rates for 2000 all
106 Commission staff working document – Impact Assessment. Brussels 25.6.2012 SWD(2012) 178 final.
107 European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (2015). The World Pump Market 2015-2020. Volume I.
108 Ibid.
the way back to 1990 were a constant of 1.73% growth per year109101, an interpolation is applied between 2000 and 2016 to establish the growth rates from 2001 to 2015.
Separate growth rates were established for clean water and wastewater, according to the applications provided in the report (industrial building, municipal water, wastewater and residential building – see explanation of end-uses below110102). The estimated forecasts for these applications on a global scale are used to find the market share of wastewater and clean water within each application and then weighted and averaged to find the growth rates of wastewater and clean water pumps for 2001 to 2020.
Municipal water and wastewater
Water and wastewater is a large market for pumps, with radically different market drivers for the advanced industrial countries compared with the developing countries. In the case of the industrial countries there are two major factors: (i) the importance of environmental legislation in recent years, and (ii) the trend towards privatisation of municipal utilities.
The latter has also led to growing horizontal integration of privately owned gas, electricity and water companies.
Residential building
Residential buildings are all buildings with living accommodation excluding hospitals.
However, not all the applications of pumps in these buildings are to pump water or wastewater. Based on the world’s breakdown of market applications for water and wastewater in residential buildings (water supply intake, water supply boosting, water treatment, wastewater transport), the EU market’s expected growth was estimated based on EU figures for the whole residential building sector.
Industrial building
Industrial buildings are all non-residential buildings, incl. commercial, hospitals and public sector. However, as for residential buildings, not all the applications of pumps in these buildings are to pumps for water or wastewater. Based on the world’s breakdown of market applications for water and wastewater in industrial buildings (water supply intake, water supply boosting, water treatment, wastewater transport), the EU market’s expected growth was estimated based on EU figures for the whole residential building sector. The use of these pumps in industrial processes was not included in this estimation, due to lack of breakdown data for each end-use industry application for pumping water and wastewater. This was done at a global level, but only for the whole industry (industrial process as one single end-use) and without reporting the industry sectors included.
Therefore, no specific market growth data could be allocated to the specific industry sectors.
Growth rates for 2020 to 2030 are assumed to follow the trend of electric motors, and an interpolation was done from the estimated 2020 growth rate to a zero growth rate 2030.
In this way, a gradual decline on sales was modelled.
All these estimations were done for water and wastewater handling pumps applications, and the exception is therefore the swimming pool pumps. For these pumps, an annual growth rate of 3% was used from 2001-2020111104. For the period 2020-2030, the same trend as described above was followed.
109 Commission staff working document – Impact Assessment. Brussels 25.6.2012 SWD(2012) 178 final.
110 European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (2015). The World Pump Market 2015-2020. Volume I.
111 Lot 29 preparatory study on clean water pumps
6.2.3 Annual total sales/real EU-consumption
The current sales are obtained from the industry for 2014, using the growth rates identified and assumptions presented above, the annual sales are then projected up to 2030.
Based on the abovementioned assumptions, Table 11 presents an overview of the estimated annual total sales (i.e. for new and replacement markets). Due to the estimated annual growth for each pump category, the annual total sales in the European Union in 2030 are estimated to be about 21% higher than those given in 2014. This is based on a constant growth that lasts for three different periods of time (i.e. 1990-2000, 2000-2020 and 2020-2030). Constant growth may not be always happening during these three periods, but considering the available data it is believed to represent the market properly, especially considering the four points in time of estimated sales presented in Table 11. . Table 11. Annual total sales estimate of pumps in scope for EU-28, 2014 -2030.