6.8 The renewables share of district heating will increase and the level off
District heating consumption is expected to be constant throughout the period. Figure 30 shows that consumption of biomass will see an annual increase of just under 5% up to 2020, replacing consumption of coal and natural gas. This development reflects the effect of an expected transition to biomass at several CHP plants. Coal consumption will then stagnate, while consumption of natural gas will see an annual decline of just under 8% throughout the period.
District heating production from heat pumps and electric boilers will increase from 0.8 PJ to 5.3 PJ from 2017 to 2030, corresponding to 16% per year. This is due to a reduction in the tax on electric heating and a phasing out of the PSO tariff. Heat pumps and electric boilers are expected to account for 4% of total district heating production in 2030.
Page 55
Consumption of solar thermal energy and biogas will increase by 2-3% per year, while consumption of waste heat and surplus heat will be constant throughout the period.
On this basis, the renewables share in district heating is expected to increase from 62% in 2017 to 74% in 2021, and then stagnate.
Non-biodegradable waste is included in fossil fuels, and will account for 10% of district heating production in 2030.
The analysis shows that the renewables share in district heating will increase to 74% up to 2021, and then level off. Heat pumps and electric boilers are expected to account for 4% of total district heating production in 2030.
Figure 30: District heating production by type of energy and renewables share in district heating 2017-2030 [PJ]. Heat pumps cover production from ambient heat and surplus heat. Surplus heat is without use of heat pumps. In the figure, the distribution of district heating production is an approximate calculation at plant level, such that district heating from each plant is
categorised according to the primary fuel use at the plant. The calculation of the renewables share is based on an accurate statement of renewable energy consumption.
6.9 Significant sensitivities and uncertainties
Projections of electricity and district heating supply are particularly sensitive to developments in electricity consumption, prices of fuels and CO2 allowances, deployment of wind power and solar PV, and specific decisions concerning coal-fired power plants, for example.
Possible consequences of significant sensitivities for key results are described in Chapter 8.
Page 57
7 Emissions of greenhouse gases
7.1 Main points
• Up to 2021, Danish greenhouse gas emissions are likely to decline to a level of 39% below the baseline year 1990. Subsequently, emissions are expected to increase in the absence of any new initiatives. This development particularly depends on energy-related emissions; there will be no major changes in the other sectors.
• Denmark will meet and exceed its share of the EU goal for non-ETS sectors for the period 2013-2020.
• Non-ETS emissions for the period 2021-2030 are expected to fall short of the EU obligation by between 32 to 37 million tonnes CO2-eq., subject to an uncertainty of +/- 10 million tonnes CO2-eq.
7.2 The overall picture
Since 1990 - the UN baseline year for calculation of climate efforts - total emissions have declined by 17 million tonnes per year from 70.8 million tonnes to 53.5 million tonnes in 2016, which
corresponds to a reduction of 24% (IPCC, 2017).
Energy-related emissions, which cover emissions from electricity and heat production and from energy consumption in industry, services, and households, have historically been responsible for the largest percentage of emissions. However, energy-related emissions have been reduced by 22 million tonnes relative to 1990, corresponding to 45%. In comparison, emissions from agriculture fell by 17%, and environmental emissions13 fell by 18%, while emissions from the transport sector increased by 13%.
Up to 2021, energy-related emissions are likely to see a further decline relative to 1990 of 21 percentage points to 67% relative to 1990. In the absence of any new initiatives, increasing electricity consumption and a decline in deployment of renewable energy will give rise to an increase in consumption of coal, oil and natural gas after 2021. The background for this trend is described in Chapter 6. The consequence will be that energy-related emissions after 2021 will increase towards 2030. In the absence of any new initiatives, in 2030, energy-related emissions are likely to have been reduced by 49%, emissions from agriculture are likely to have declined by 14%, and environmental emissions are likely to have declined by 30%, while emissions from the transport sector are expected to have increased by 9-16%. These trends are all relative to 1990.
The outcome range for emissions from the transport sector is due to methodological uncertainty about the actual energy efficiency of new cars, see Chapter 8.4.
On this basis, in 2020 total emissions are expected to have been reduced by 38-39% relative to the baseline year 1990, and to subsequently reach an all-time low of 43 million tonnes in 2021, corresponding to a reduction of 39% relative to the baseline year 1990. In the absence of any new
13 Environmental emissions include industrial gases and emissions from managing waste, wastewater and similar.
Page 58
initiatives, total emissions are expected to subsequently increase up to 2030 to 51-52 million tonnes, corresponding to a reduction of 27-28% relative to the baseline year 1990.
The analysis shows that Denmark’s emissions of greenhouse gases have been declining since 1990. This development is expected to continue up to 2021, after which emissions will increase up to 2030 in the absence of any new initiatives.
Figure 31: Emissions of greenhouse gases from 1990-2030 and in the 1990 UN baseline year [mill. tonnes CO2-eq.]. Figures have been adjusted for outdoor temperature relative to normal years (climate-adjusted) and electricity trade with other countries. The reduction has been measured relative to the 1990 UN baseline year, which is based on observed (actual) emissions and determined as part of the UNFCCC.