5. Ensuring security of supply
5.5 Assessment of security of gas supply
Energinet.dk finds that the Danish gas transmission system is robust in case of a breakdown – even at times of high gas de-mand. The sources of supply from the North Sea, Germany and the gas storage facilities are also considered to be ample.
It will also be possible to maintain supplies to Danish and Swedish gas customers when DUC closes the Tyra platform for renovation in 2018. However, during the period of the renovati-on, the Danish gas system will be less flexible and more vulne-rable to incidents.
If DUC decides to permanently close the Tyra platform, the sup-ply situation will have to be reassessed so that measures can be initiated to maintain a satisfactory security of supply.
However, the Danish gas system is well developed. Connec-tions to Germany and the gas storage facilities mean that Da-nish and Swedish customers will continue to be supplied as before. Supply problems can only arise if there is an extremely long, hard winter, which has not yet been seen during the life- time of the natural gas system.
It is possible to avoid declaring an Emergency with the current model for security of supply for the vast majority of incidents.
This means largely avoiding having to completely or partially disconnect non-protected customers. This is because the mar-ket mechanisms are expected to regulate demand or supply via the gas price, so there will be no need for further measures.
The close link to Europe means that the European supply situa-tion influences the Danish supply situasitua-tion to some extent. The security of gas supply assessment for all of Europe also shows that the Danish security of gas supply will continue to be high.
Station capacities are stated in the table on the next page, which also lists the presumed offtakes during the peak day and average peak hour. It should be pointed out that the station capacities shown are based on the inlet and outlet pressures stated in the table.
The table includes examples of where the measured peak hour exceeds station capacity. This is because the station inlet pres-sure is calculated conservatively at a temperature of -13°C whe-reas the inlet pressure during the measured peak hour is hig-her. Hence station capacity during the measured peak hour is correspondingly higher than indicated in the table.
Utilisation of the meter and regulator stations in 2014 and 2015
The maximum capacity utilisation for each meter and regu- la tor station during the winters 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 is shown in the table on the right, which contains the results for both peak day volume and max-imum flow of gas in one hour. The date and the hour of maximum flow need not coin-cide.
The offtake from M/R station Højby is still 25,000 Nm3/hour since the gas cable to Fynsværket has been taken out of ope- ration.
NGF Nature Energy Distribution receives upgraded biogas to the gas net from three biogas plants (Nordfyns Biogas, Midtfyns Biogas and Søndersø Biogas). As a consequence, combined with the current consumption, the expected demand from M/R
stati-on Koelbjerg reduced by 3,000 Nm3/hour to 32,000 Nm3/hour.
Expectations to the demand from M/R station Ullerslev has been reduced from 7,500 Nm3/hour to 6,000 Nm3/hour based on last years operating data.
There is also discussed connectivity options for further three biogas projects with possible commissioning in 2017 and 2018.
Appendix 1:
Station capacities connected to
NGF Nature Energy Distribution
The table shows the registered peak day and peak hour offtake at individual meter and regulator stations in the periods 1 May 2014 to 30 April 2015 and 1 May 2015 to 30 April 2016.
Period 01052015 -30-04-2016
Period 01052014
-30-04-2015 Daily
volume Max hour Daily
volume Max hour
Nm3/day Nm3/hour Nm3/day Nm3/hour
551 - Middelfart 101,033 4,951 62,531 4,383 553 - Billesbølle 69,628 4,063 63,415 5,881 554 - Koelbjerg 389,432 19,640 542,618 28,780 557 - Højby 493,244 24,934 343,760 20,015 559 - Ullerslev 79,304 4,498 62,683 4,548
560 - Nyborg 38,728 1,965 46,764 2,299
The table shows the expected offtake, calculated inlet and outlet pressure and capacities for M/R stations in the transmission system in normal supply situations at a daily mean temperature of -13°C. The distribution companies' expected capacity requirements are also specified.
Capacities at given inlet and outlet pressures
Expected offtake during a peak
day (-13°C)
Expected offtake during an average peak
hour (-13°C)
Calculated inlet pressure
Agreed set point
M/R-station calculated
capacity (-13°C)
Expected capacity requirements of
distribution companies
Measured peak hour 01-05-2015 -
30-04-2016
Nm3/day Nm3/hour Barg Barg Nm3/hour Nm3/hour Nm3/hour
Naturgas Fyn 1.115,432
551 - Middelfart 86,748 4,440 71 17 10,848 6,000 4,951
553 - Billesbølle 76,375 3,711 71 17 10,778 6,500 4,063
554 - Koelbjerg 414,112 19,681 71 17 43,212 32,000 19,640
557 - Højby 414,900 23,073 70 17 101,762 25,000 24,934
559 - Ullerslev 80,449 3,850 70 17 7,492 6,000 4,498
560 - Nyborg 42,849 1,977 70 17 10,601 4,000 1,965
Station capacities are stated in the table on the next page, which also lists the presumed offtakes during the peak day and average peak hour. It should be pointed out that the station capacities shown are based on the inlet and outlet pressures stated in the table.
The table includes examples of where the measured peak hour exceeds station capacity. This is because the station inlet pres-sure is calculated conservatively at a temperature of -13°C whe-reas the inlet pressure during the measured peak hour is hig-her. Hence station capacity during the measured peak hour is correspondingly higher than indicated in the table.
Utilisation of the meter and regulator stations in 2014 and 2015
The maximum capacity utilisation for each meter and regu- la tor station during the winters 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 is shown in the table on the right, which contains the results for both peak day volume and maximum flow of gas in one hour.
The date and the hour of maximum flow need not coincide.
Appendix 2:
Stations capacities connected to
Dansk Gas Distribution
Period 01052015
-30-04-2016
Period 01052014
-30-04-2015 Daily
volume Max
hour Daily
volume Max
hour Nm3/day Nm3/hour Nm3/day Nm3/hour 646 Amagerfælled 68,224 4,616 87,046 5,139 653 Slagelse 217,640 12,408 222,224 11,600
658 Sorø 505,089 25,512 418,151 24,777
661 Ringsted 447,608 25,128 424,308 25,148 691 Stenlille MR 180,220 12,344 21,568 6,880 451 Frøslev 403,020 20,016 391,885 26,045
452 Nybro 39,538 2,628 33,645 2,394
453 Terkelsbøl 259,535 13,265 111,171 11,651 457 Ll. Selskær 357,071 21,230 259,152 17,824 458 Pottehuse 341,386 17,127 84,220 6,926 459 St. Andst 321,955 19,858 258,200 16,384 460 Egtved 893,312 53,500 804,656 45,688
462 Varde 113,145 13,393 96,288 11,698
468 Taulov 142,224 9,465 204,176 9,267
481 Nørskov 207,516 13,663 165,929 13,616
496 Lilballe 54 38 29,524 2,083
The table shows the registered peak day and peak hour offtake at individual meter and regulator stations in the periods 1 May 2014 to 30 April 2015 and 1 May 2015 to 30 April 2016.
Capacities at given inlet and outlet
pressures
Expected offtake during a peak
day (-13°C)
Expected offtake during
an average peak hour
(-13°C)
Calculated inlet pressure
Agreed pointset
M/R-station calculated
capacity (-13°C)
Expected capacity requirements of
distribution companies
Measured peak hour 01-05-2015 - 30-04-2016
Nm3/day Nm3/hour Barg Barg Nm3/hour Nm3/hour Nm3/hour
451 - Frøslev 383,373 18,889 60 35 37,435 28,000 20,016
452 - Nybro 44,784 2,315 73 17 4,257 2,900 2,628
453 - Terkelsbøl 236,821 11,301 60 35 33,644 20,500 13,265
457 - Ll. Selskær 349,851 17,304 60 35 39,485 24,800 21,230
458 - Pottehuse 286,262 14,007 60 35 29,282 13,400 17,127
459 - St.Andst 294,680 16,468 60 35 29,266 19,600 19,858
460 - Egtved 855,822 40,080 72 35 58,695 67,300 53,500
462 - Varde 108,374 5,652 73 35 35,738 10,500 13,393
468 - Taulov 83,732 4,122 72 35 29,460 15,200 9,465
481 - Nørskov 204,587 9,827 64 35 24,241 16,200 13,663
496 - Lilballe 44,821 1,878 72 4 9,011 2,500 38
646 - Amagerfælled 62,085 4,014 66 17 6,316 5,600 4,616
653 - Slagelse 257,550 12,379 70 17 24,206 17,750 12,408
661 - Ringsted 516,630 24,535 68 25 29,228 33,500 25,128
658/691 - Sorø/Stenlille 425,412 19,031 69 18 98,534 38,400 25,512
The table shows the expected offtake, calculated inlet and outlet pressure and capacities for M/R stations in the transmission system in normal supply situations at a daily mean temperature of -13°C. The distribution companies' expected capacity requirements are also specified.
Station capacities are stated in the table on the next page, which also lists the presumed offtakes during the peak day and average peak hour. It should be pointed out that the station capacities shown are based on the inlet and outlet pressures stated in the table.
The table includes examples of where the measured peak hour exceeds station capacity. This is because the station inlet pres-sure is calculated conservatively at a temperature of -13°C whe-reas the inlet pressure during the measured peak hour is hig-her. Hence station capacity during the measured peak hour is correspondingly higher than indicated in the table.
Utilisation of the meter and regulator stations in 2014 and 2015
The maximum capacity utilisation for each meter and regu- la tor station during the winters 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 is shown in the table on the right, which contains the results for both peak day volume and maximum flow of gas in one hour.
The date and the hour of maximum flow need not coincide.
Appendix 3:
Station capacities connected to
HMN GasNet P/S
The table shows the registered peak day and peak hour offtake at individual meter and regulator stations in the periods 1 May 2014 to 30 April 2015 and 1 May 2015 to 30 April 2016.
Period: 01-05-2015 -
30-04-2016 Period: 01-05 2014 - 30-04-2015 Daily
volume Max
hour Daily
volume Max
hour
Nm3/day Nm3/hour Nm3/day Nm3/hour
663 - Køge 400,664 23,448 458,128 27,408
664 - Karlslunde 344,320 20,564 271,944 19,104 665 - Torslunde 239,399 12,080 223,352 12,280 667 - Vallensbæk 373,255 24,938 435,514 21,568 668 - Brøndby 1,028,680 57,132 1,310,144 62,112
672 - Dragør 179,382 8,836 150,452 8,800
682 - Lynge 1,406,580 70,792 1,171,888 73,100 684 - Måløv 1,156,992 54,820 1,157,120 52,448 464 - Viborg 1,242,784 84,960 996,768 57,696 473 - Haverslev 383,665 18,872 351,179 17,094 474 - Ellidshøj 194,247 9,415 163,180 8,640 476 - Aalborg 1,171,300 57,212 1,601,248 80.032
482 - Brande 109,335 5,344 98,496 4,779
483 - Herning 1,900,652 94,040 1,145,920 84,608 484 - Karup 233,163 12,840 213,392 12,472 486 - Ll. Torup MR 60,238 3,468 53,895 3,328
Capacities at given inlet and outlet pressures
Expected offtake during a peak day (-13°C)
Expected offtake during an average peak
hour (-13°C)
Calculated inlet pressure
Agreed set point
M/R-station calculated capacity (-13°C)
Expected capacity requirements of distribution companies
Measured peak hour 01-05-2015 - 30-04-2016
Nm3/day Nm3/hour Barg Barg Nm3/hour Nm3/hour Nm3/hour
North and East
Zealand 5,647,055 260,520
663 - Køge 435,328 19,569 69 18 32,755 40,000 23,448
664 - Karlslunde 350,403 17,968 69 18 79,503 25,000 20,564
665 - Torslunde 247,562 10,413 69 18 24,585 20,000 12,080
667 - Vallensbæk 414,320 17,998 69 18 24,804 25,000 24,938
668 - Brøndby 1,362,227 67,123 68 31 116,128 90,000 57,132
672 - Dragør 189,700 8,428 68 17 23,336 12,000 8,836
682 - Lynge 1,345,506 64,122 67 33 121,337 90,000 70,792
684 - Måløv 1,302,008 54,899 68 18 69,735 70,000 54,820
Mid and North
Jutland 4,939,047 240,218
464 - Viborg 1,139,541 55,353 70 35 102,930 100,000 84,960
473 - Haverslev 315,074 16,000 72 35 17,699 34,000 18,872
474 - Ellidshøj 179,413 8,452 71 35 11,714 12,000 9,415
476 - Aalborg 1,295,803 6,3812 71 40 145,660 90,000 57,212
482 - Brande 92,674 4,953 65 35 13,536 6,000 5,344
483 - Herning 1,636,841 78,119 65 47 152,865 120,000 94,040
484 - Karup 222,739 10,851 67 35 21,095 18,000 12,840
486 - Ll. Torup MR 56,962 2,678 73 35 10,932 5,000 3,468
The table shows the expected offtake, calculated inlet and outlet pressure and capacities for meter and regulator stations in the transmission system in normal supply situations at a daily mean temperature of -13°C. The distribution companies' expected capacity requirements are also specified.