This part will discuss a variety of perspectives which were not taken into consideration in the thesis.
The fair value of LEGO Group has been assessed as of March 31, 2020, why information beyond this point of time has not been considered in the valuation. New information has surfaced after the cut-off
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date, which would have had impacted the estimated value of LEGO Group. The COVID-19 pandemic has in recent months had a major impact on the global economy, including the industry of traditional toys and games here included construction toys. Governments have been forced to quarantine entire countries, disrupting global supply chains and slashing businesses and consumer confidence. The industry has met challenges in the form of supply chains, stores closures, and shifts in consumer demand due to depressed incomes (Euromonitor, The Impact of Coronavirus on Toys and Games).
Consumers are demanding digital solutions that support at-home education why an increase in scientific and educational toys have been monitored, indicating increasing demand for LEGO products.
This information would have affected the expectations of the projected sales positively, why a higher value could be expected.
Although the thesis assess e-commerce to be an important distribution channel for the industry of traditional toys and games, it has become increasingly more vital as LEGO Group has had its stores closed for a long period of time outside of China. It is assessed that LEGO Group would continue to survive the challenges the limited distribution channels cause.
The market risk premium applied in the calculation of CAPM was estimated prior to March 31, 2020 and therefore, prior to the impact from COVID-19. A survey conducted about the market risk premium indicates that respondents increased their MRP by 2 % after the outbreak of COVID-19 (Fernandez al., 2020). An increase in market risk premium by 2 % would result the calculated WACC to increase to 6.618 % which would further cause the estimated equity value to decrease to DKK 297,027mn, thus a change of DKK 9,243mn from the value estimated in the base case scenario.
It has been found that the lockdown has caused boredom which has resulted in a higher purchase of toys to stay entertained, here including construction toys. The value of sales of building set from January 1, to May 23, 2020, increased by 17 % compared to the same period the year prior why e-commerce platforms has become more important than ever (Peachey, 2020, B).
Lego has joined forces with foundations all over the world here included in Hungary, the U.S., the United Kingdom and China to support children impacted by the COVID-19. 90 % of the world’s student population have been out of school while families face financial or medical insecurities why the global impact of COVID-19 on children’s wellbeing and development is unprecedented. Lego has been donating money in the aim of helping foundations to reach crisis-affected children in need of vital support and opportunities to learn through play. The aim of Lego has been to support the wellbeing of children and their development of vital life skills (LEGO.com, R). Such a strategic movement can be expected to impact the future perception of the Lego brand and its value.
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The valuation has been made in regard to the interest of conducting a valuation of a private company from an external perspective. A sale of LEGO Group as a whole is thought to be unlikely to happen due to the company’s rooted family history, however, such a perspective is additionally thought to be of interest.
The paper would, in this perspective, have included an analysis on which actions Lego could take to increase its sales maturity. An in-debt analysis would have been required regarding the external and internal dependency in order to evaluate which factors would influence the value and marketability (Nørbjerg & Plenborg, 2009). Such a perspective would also include the steps to be taken in a sales process. This would include a thorough due diligence of the company which would give access to information that have not been accessible in this thesis. Such information could undoubtedly result in a different estimation of value of the LEGO Group.
When a private company is traded to either private companies or private investors, the matter of illiquidity becomes an issue as assets and shares in a private company are more costly and problematic to convert to cash than publicly traded shares. Petersen et al. (2006) find that investors adjust the required rate of return on equity to account for the lack of liquidity, attaching a liquidity premium of up to 3-5 pct. points (Petersen et al.,2017: 363). Moreover, an illiquidity discount for a private company of 20-30 % is thought to be a rule of thumb used by practitioners (Damodaran, E). Such additions would affect the estimated value of the LEGO Group significantly.
No illiquidity discount should however be given to a public acquirer since investors in the buying company can sell their holdings in a market (ibid).
The findings in this thesis are based on secondary data and best assumptions yielding a possible value of LEGO Group viewed from an external perspective. The access to primary data would have been desirable in conducting the valuation based on more thorough fundamental analysis with access to the internal information.
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