Part 5 – Case valuation
9 Literature list
9 Literature list
Mun, J.
Real Options Analysis
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2002 Penman, S. H.
Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation McGraw-Hill, Third Edition, 2007
Porter, M. E.
Competitive Strategy The Free Press 1980
Ross, S., Westerfield, R. and Jordan, B Corporate Finance – Fundamentals McGraw-Hill, 7th Edition, 2006 9.2 Scientific Articles Arnold, T. and Crack, T. F.
Using WACC to value Real options
Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 60, p. 78-82, 2004 Banerjee, A.
Real Option Valuation of a Pharmaceutical company Vikalpa – Volume 28, p. 61-73, 2003
Berndt, E.
Pharmaceuticals in U.S. Health Care: Determinants of Quantity and Price The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 16, No. 4, p. 45-66, 2002 Berndt, E., Gottschalk, A. and Strobeck, M.
Opportunities for Improving the Drug Development Process: Results from a Survey of Industry and the FDA
Innovation Policy and the Economy Vol 6, p. 91-121, 2006 Bhat, V.N.
Patent term extension strategies in the pharmaceutical industry Pharmaceuticals Policy and Law 6, p. 109-122, 2005
Black, F. and Scholes, M.
Valuation of Technology Using “Real Options”
Journal of Political Economy, p. 637-654, 1973 Block, S
Are “Real Options” Actually Used in the Real World?
The Engineering Economist 52, p. 255-267, 2007
Boer, F. P.
The pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities
Research - Technology Management July-August, p. 26-30, 2000 Brandão, E. and Dyer, J.
Decision Analysis and Real Options: A Discrete Time Approach to Real Option Valuation Annals of Operations Research 135, p. 21-39, 2005
Carlsson, C. and Fullér, R.
Real option evaluation in fuzzy environment
Proceedings of the International Symposium of Hungarian Researchers on Computational Intelligence, p. 69-77, November 2000
Carlsson, C. and Fullér, R.
On possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 122, p. 315–326, 2001
Carlsson, C. and Fullér, R.
A fuzzy approach to real option valuation Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 139, p. 297-312, 2003 Collan, M., Fullér, R. and Mezei, J. (1)
A Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences, Vol. 2009, 2009 Collan, M., Fullér, R. and Mezei, J. (2)
Compound Real Options with the Pay-off method: a Three-Stage R&D Case Illustration Åbo Akademi University, 2009
Cox, J., Ross, S. and Rubinstein, M.
Option Pricing: A Simplified Approach
Journal of Financial Economics September, p.229-263, 1979 Czerepak, E., and Ryser, S.
Drug approvals and failures: implications for alliances Nature Reviews – Drug Discovery, Vol 7, p. 197-198, 2008 Danzon, P.M.
Price Discrimination for Pharmaceuticals: Welfare Effects in the US and the EU.
International Journal of the Economics of Business, 4(3), p. 301, 1997 Datar, V. and Mathews, S.
A pratical Method for valuing Real Options: The Boeing Approach Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 19, number 2, 2007
DiMasi, J. A.
Risks in new drug development: Approval success rates for investigational drugs Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, vol. 69, p. 297-307, 2001
DiMasi, J. A. and Grabowski, H. G.
The cost of Biopharmaceutical R&D: Is Biotech Different?
Managerial and Decision Economics, vol. 28, p. 469-479, 2007 DiMasi, J. A., Hansen, R. W. and Grabowski, H. G.
The price of innovation: new estimates
Journal of Health Economics 22, p. 151-185, 2003 Dubois, D. and Prade, H.
Fuzzy Numbers: An Overview
Analysis of Fuzzy Information, Vol.I: Mathematics and Logic, p. 3-39, 1987 Eisenhardt, K.
Agency Theory: An Assessment and Review
The Academy of Management Review, Vol. 14, No. 1 (Jan., 1989), p. 57-74 Fama, E. and French, K.
The Equity Premium
The journal of finance, vol. LVII, No. 2, 2002 Grabowski, H. G.
Patents, innovations and access to new pharmaceuticals
Journal of International Economic Law (2002), p. 849-860, 2002 Grabowski, H. G. and Vernon, J.
Longer Patents For Lower Imitation Barriers: The 1984Drug Act R&D, Innovation, and Public Policy Vol. 76 no. 2, p. 195-198, 1986 Hartmann, M. and Hassan, A.
Application of real option analysis for pharmaceutical R&D project valuation – Empirical results from a survey
Research Policy, vol.35, pp.343–354, 2006 Jensen, L. W. and Klyver, R.
Biotech focus - Denmark: going from strength to strength Drug Discovery Today, Volume 13, Numbers 15/16, 2008 Kellogg, D. and Charnes, J.
Real-Options Valuation for a Biotechnology Company Financial Analysts Journal Vol 56, No. 3, p. 76-84, 2000
Kinnunen, J.
Valuing M&A Synergies as (Fuzzy) Real Options Åbo Akademi University, 2010
Kola, I. and Landis, J.
Can the pharmaceutical industry reduce attrition rates?
Nature Reviews– Drug Discovery, Vol 3, p. 711-716, 2004 Kumar, V.
Me-Too Drugs- A Tiny Revolutionize
www.pharmainfo.net, volume 6 issue 3, 2008 Kerins, F., Smith, J. and Smith, R.
Opportunity Cost of Capital of Venture Capital Investors and Entrepreneurs Washington State University, 2003
Lander, D.M. and Pinches, G.E.
Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance, 38(4), p. 537-567, 1998
Liao, S. and Ho, S.
Investment project valuation based on a fuzzy binomial approach Information Sciences 180, p. 2124–2133, 2010
McGrath, R. and Nerkar, A.
Real Options Reasoning and a New Look at the R&D Investments Strategies of Pharmaceutical Firms
Strategic Management Journal Vol 25, No. 1, p. 1-21, 2004 Myers, S. C. and Howe, C. D.
A Life-Cycle Financial Model of Pharmaceutical R&D MIT, 1997
Parum, C.
Aktieindeks, aktieafkast og risikopræmier CBS, 1998
Risager, O.
The Value premium on the Danish Stock Market: 1950-2004 CBS, 2005
Scherer, F. M.
Uncertainty and Choice: The Challenges of Pharmaceutical Efficacy, Safety, and Cost Managerial and Decision Economics Vol 28, p. 267-283, 2007
Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R. W.
Management Entrenchment - The Case of Manager-Specific Investments Journal of Financial Economics 25, p. 123-139, 1989
Shockley, L., Curtis Jr., S., Jafari, J. and Tibbs, K.
The Option Value of an Early-Stage Biotechnology Investment Journal of Applied Corporate Finance Vol 15.2, p. 44-55, 2002 Stewart, J., Allison, P., and Johnson, R.
Putting a price on biotechnology
Nature Biotechnology, Vol 19, p. 813-817, 2001 Trigeorgis, L.
The Nature of Option Interactions and the Valuations of Investments with Multiple Real Options The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 1, p. 1–20, 1993
Ucal, I. and Kahraman, C.
Fuzzy Real Options Valuation For Oil Investments
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 2009, Vol. 15, p. 646–669 Yeo, K.T. and Qui, F
The value of managerial flexibility – a real option approach to investment evaluation International Journal of Project Management 21, p. 243–250, 2003
Yoshida, Y., Yasuda, M., Nakagami, J. and Kurano, M.
A new evaluation of mean value for fuzzy numbers and its application to American put option under uncertainty
Fuzzy Sets and Systems 157, p. 2614–2626, 2006 Zadeh, L.A.
Fuzzy Sets
Information and Control, Vol.8, p. 338-353, 1965
9.3 Publications
Non-Dilutive Financing Alternatives for Biotech Companies Avance Newsletter N.2 , 2008
Nyt fra Dansk Biotek Marts 2010 Dansk Biotek, 2010
Beyond Borders – Global Biotechnology report 2009 Ernst & Young, 2010
The Pharmaceutical Industry in Figures - 2010 edition
European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), 2011
Lundbeck Annual Report 2010 Lundbeck, 2011
Novod, M. (1)
A golden bird getting ready to fly Nordea Equity Research, 2011 Novod, M. (2)
Diabesity supremacy driving 2015 EPS tripling Nordea Equity Research, 2011
Novod, M. (3)
Last man standing in focused CNS research Nordea Equity Research, 2011
Rådgivningsudvalget, Foreningen for Statsautoriterede Revisorer
Fagligt notat om den statsautoriserede revisors arbejde i forbindelse med værdiansættelse af virksomheder og virksomhedsandele
Nørhaven Book, 2003
Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997
One Hundred Fifth Congress of the United States of America, 1997, Granholm-Leth, N.
Swing back to cyclical and small caps SEB Enskilda, 2011
Profile – Pharmaceutical Industry 2010
The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), 2011
9.4 Homepages
http://nationalbanken.statistikbank.dk/
http://users.abo.fi/mccollan/
http://www.citizen.org/
http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/
http://www.danskbiotek.dk/
http://www.efpia.org/
http://www.ema.europa.eu/
http://www.fda.gov/
http://www.gmppublications.com/
http://www.lundbeck.com/
http://www.phrma.org/
http://www.toxicologysource.com/
9.5 Articles
http://www.business.dk/industri/leo-pharma-forfoelger-alternativ-patentstrategi
http://borsen.dk/nyheder/investor/artikel/1/163730/genmab_taber_en_tredjedel_af_vaerdien_paa _faa_minutter.html
http://www.business.dk/biotek/investorer-stadig-skeptiske-overfor-biotek http://www.business.dk/biotek/dansk-biotekvirksomhed-faar-750-mio