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fi1 Fduolqj hw do1 +4<<9,/ Jhhugvhq +5335,1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj L zloo uhjdug wkh sdvvlyh shulrg lq wkh Gdqlvk XL v|vwhp mxvw dv d qlwh ehqhwv shulrg dqdo|vhg lq rwkhu vwxglhv phqwlrqhg deryh16
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6Vhh Jhhugvhq +5335, iru d fduhixo ghvfulswlrq ri wkh Gdqlvk XL v|vwhp dqg wkh gdwd xvhg lq wklv dqdo|vlv1
d vrxufh zklfk rq lwv rzq kdv dq hhfw rq wkh kd}dug rxw ri xqhpsor|phqw +wkh h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrq,1 Wkh gdwd xvhg lq wklv vwxg| pdnhv lw srvvleoh wr xvh glhuhqw vrxufhv ri yduldwlrq lq rughu wr lghqwli| wkh prwlydwlrq hhfw1 Lq Ghqpdun vlqfh 4<<7 wkh gxudwlrq ri wkh XL shulrg +wkh sdvvlyh shulrg, kdv ehhq vkruwhqhg wzlfh71 Dqrwkhu vrxufh ri yduldwlrq lv wkdw lqglylgxdov fdq kdyh xvhg vrph ri wkhlu ehqhwv lq suhylrxv xqhpsor|phqw vshoov uhvxowlqj lq glhuhqw hqwlwohphqw iurp wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh vshoo1 Ilqdoo| wkhuh lv dozd|v wkh fkrlfh ri uhvwulfwlqj wkh gxudwlrq hhfw wr d jlyhq ixqfwlrqdo irup1 Wklv jlyhv wkh iroorzlqj lghqwlfdwlrq vrxufhv=
41 Uhdolvhg mxpsv +UM, lq hqwlwohphqw ri sdvvlyh XL zkloh lqglylgxdov duh uhfhlylqj XL gxh wr ohjlvodwlyh fkdqjhv lq wkh gxudwlrq ri wkh sdvvlyh shulrg lq 4<<9 dqg 4<<;1
51 Yduldwlrq lq hqwlwohphqw +H, ri sdvvlyh XL gxh wr wkh vdph ohjlvodwlyh fkdqjhv dv ghvfulehg deryh sulru wr frpphqflqj dq xqhpsor|phqw vshoo1
61 Yduldwlrq lq hqwlwohphqw +H, ri sdvvlyh XL gxh wr suhylrxv xqhpsor|0 phqw vshoov1
71 Yduldwlrq lq gxudwlrq rq XL +w,
Wkh pdq| vrxufhv ri yduldwlrq lq uhpdlqlqj ehqhwv +U, pdnhv lw srvvleoh wr hvwlpdwh wkh prwlydwlrq hhfw xvlqj glhuhqw frpelqdwlrqv ri h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrqv dv wkh| duh xvhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh1 L zloo hvwlpdwh irxu prghov xvlqj wkh irxu glhuhqw vhw ri h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrqv vwduwlqj zlwk wkh prvw uhvwulfwlyh uhvwulfwlrqv dqg hqglqj zlwk ohdvw uhvwulfwhg prgho/ fi1 wdeoh 61 E| frpsdulqj hvwlpdwlrqv iurp d pruh vwulfw h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrqv zlwk
7Dfwxdoo| wkh sdvvlyh shulrg kdv ehhq vkruwhqhg wkuhh wlphv1 Exw wkh odvw ohjlvodwlyh fkdqjh olhv eh|rqg wkh shulrg fryhuhg e| gdwd1
Wdeoh 6= Wkh h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrqv dssolhg lq wkh irxu glhuhqw prghov
Kd}dug prgho H{foxvlrq Frqvwuxfw vlplodu wr=
frqglwlrqhg rq= uhvwulfwlrqv=
Prgho L wlq orj sro|qrpldo irup H Kdp dqg Uhd +4<;:,
UMw
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Prgho LLL wgxpp| frqvwuxfw H Jhhugvhq +5335,
H lq orj sro|qrpldo irup UM
Prgho LY wgxpp| frqvwuxfw UM
H gxpp| frqvwuxfw
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PrghoLL= Lq Prgho LL L prgho wkh gxudwlrq ghshqghqfh ixoo| h{leoh1 Wkh gxudwlrq yduldeoh +w, lv lpsohphqwhg lq wkh kd}dug prgho zlwk d prqwko|
gxpp| frqvwuxfw1 Hqwlwohphqw +H, lv vwloo rplwwhg iurp wkh kd}dug prgho1 Wklv prgho lv wkhuhiruh edvhg rq yduldwlrq lq hqwlwohphqw +H, dqg uhdolvhg mxpsv lq gxudwlrq +UM,1 Wklv vhwxs lv yhu| forvh wr wkh vhwxs xvhg e|
Ph|hu +4<<3, dqg Ndw} dqg Ph|hu +4<<3,1 Wkh prgho lv dovr yhu| forvh wr wkh prgho ri Urjhuv +4<<;,1 Urjhuv rqo| xvhv iuhvk vshoov zklfk frxog eh xvhg dv dq dujxphqw zk| lw lv xqqhfhvvdu| wr frqglwlrq rq hqwlwohphqw +H, lq khu hvwlpdwlrqv1 Exw vlqfh pd{lpxp ehqhwv gxudwlrq lv fkdqjlqj ryhu khu vdpsoh shulrg/ lqglylgxdov zloo h{shulhqfh glhuhqw hqwlwohphqw dffruglqj wr zkhq wkh| frpphqfh wkhlu xqhpsor|phqw shulrg1
PrghoLLL= Lq wklv prgho L kdyh lpsohphqwhg hqwlwohphqw +H, lq wkh kd}0 dug prgho dqg prghoohg lw zlwk sro|qrpldo irup1 Wkh gxudwlrq +w, lv prg0 hoohg ixoo| h{leoh zlwk prqwko| gxpplhv1 Wkh lghqwlfdwlrq lq wklv prgho lv wkhuhiruh sulpdulo| edvhg rq yduldwlrq lq uhdolvhg mxpsv lq gxudwlrq +UM, dqg uhpdlqlqj yduldwlrq lq hqwlwohphqw +H,1
PrghoLY= Lq wklv odvw prgho L kdyh prghoohg erwk gxudwlrq ghshqghqfh +w, dqg hqwlwohphqw +H, ixoo| h{leoh +gxpp| frqvwuxfwv,1 Wklv phdqv wkdw lghqwlfdwlrq ri wkh prwlydwlrq hhfw +U, lv sulpdulo| edvhg rq wkh yduldwlrq lq uhdolvhg mxpsv lq gxudwlrq +UM,1
815 Gdwd
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816 Prgho
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9 Hpslulfdouhvxowv
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Iljxuh 7= Hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri uhpdlqlqj ehqhwv xvlqj irxu glhuhqw h{0
iurp wkh kd}dug hvwlpdwlrq1 Dssduhqwo|/ wklv h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrq uhvxowv lq zhdnhu hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri wkh prwlydwlrq hhfw1 Rqh uhdvrq iru wklv frxog eh wkdw 4, hqwlwohphqw grhv lqghhg kdyh dq hhfw rq lqglylgxdov* kd}dug rxw ri xqhpsor|phqw/ dqg 5, lqglylgxdov zkr kdyh vkruw wlph wr ehqhwv h{kdxvwlrq gxh wr d sdvw ri orqj whup xqhpsor|phqw pd| uhdfw ohvv wr wkh survshfw ri hqwhulqj wkh dfwlydwlrq shulrg1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv lqglfdwh wkdw lw lv qrw ri juhdw lpsruwdqfh zkhwkhu wkh yduldeohv hqwlwohphqw +H, dqg gxudwlrq +w, duh prghoohg iuhho| zlwk gxpp| frqvwuxfwv ru sdudphwulfdoo|1 Lq prgho L wkh gxudwlrq yduldeoh +w, kdv ehhq prgho zlwk d orj sro|qrpldo dqg lq prgho LL lw kdv ehhq prghoohg zlwk d gxpp| frqvwuxfw1 Wkh uhvxowv duh doprvw vlplodu1 Wkh vdph jrhv iru prgho LLL dqg LY zkhuh hqwlwohphqw +H, kdv ehhq prghoohg zlwk sro|qrpldov lq prgho LLL dqg zlwk d gxpp|
frqvwuxfw lq prgho LY1 Lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wr qrwh wkdw wkh prgho zlwk wkh
Iljxuh 8= Hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri gxudwlrq yduldeohv xvlqj wkh irxu glhuhqw
zhdnhvw h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrqv/ prgho LY/ dovr hvwlpdwhv wkh vwurqjhvw prwl0 ydwlrq hhfwv1 Wklv lqglfdwhv wkdw dsso|lqj vwurqjhu h{foxvlrq uhvwulfwlrqv pd| uhvxow lq dq xqghu hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh prwlydwlrq hhfw1
Lq jxuh 8 wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri wkh gxudwlrq yduldeoh +w, lv suhvhqwhg iru wkh irxu prghov1 Wkh sdudphwulf irup xvhg lq prgho L jlyhv d uhodwlyho|
jrrg w ri wkh gxudwlrq hhfw xs wr derxw 6; prqwkv lqwr wkh xqhpsor|phqw vshoo1 Wkhuh diwhu wkh hhfw ehfrphv yhu| yrodwloh1 Vwloo/ wkh sdudphwulf irup vhhpv wr fdwfk wkh wuhqg ri wkh gxudwlrq hhfw ryhudoo dqg iurp wkhvh uhvxowv lw grhv vhhp sodxvleoh wkdw d sdudphwulf prghoolqj ri wkh gxudwlrq hhfw lv qrw sureohpdwlf iru wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh prwlydwlrq hhfw1
Lq jxuh 9 wkh hvwlpdwlrq ydoxhv ri wkh hqwlwohphqw yduldeoh +H, lv suh0 vhqwhg1 Wkh sdudphwulf irup ri wklv yduldeoh grhv qrw vhhp wr w dv zhoo dv zlwk wkh gxudwlrq yduldeoh1 Wkh gxpp| ydoxhv uhyhdo d orw ri xfwxdwlrq
Iljxuh 9= Hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri hqwlwohphqw xvlqj wkh wzr h{foxvlrq uhvwulf0 wlrq prghov zklfk frqglwlrq rq wklv yduldeoh1
0,4
shdnlqj forvh wr wkh prqwkv zklfk kdyh ehhq d frpprq hqwlwohphqw +H, iru lqglylgxdov zkr kdyh jdlqhg ru uhjdlqhg wkh uljkw wr d iuhvk XL shulrg1 Wkh sdudphwulf irup grhv lqglfdwh wkdw wkhuh lv dq lqfuhdvlqj wuhqg zkhuh lqglylgxdov zlwk kljkhu hqwlwohphqw dovr kdyh d kljkhu kd}dug rxw ri xqhp0 sor|phqw1 Wklv vxssruwv wkh qglqj wkdw rplwwlqj hqwlwohphqw +H, iurp wkh kd}dug hvwlpdwlrq dfwxdoo| eldv wkh hvwlpdwhg prwlydwhg hhfw grzqzdugv1