More electrified vehicles sold, making the share of total fleet 9% in 2030

increasing share of sales of new vehicles up to 2030. This is based on expectations of

technological developments and falling technology costs. On this basis, electrified vehicles are expected to account for 22% of total sales of new vehicles in 2030, in the absence of new measures. Sales of hydrogen vehicles are expected to be very limited.

The number of electrified passenger cars and vans will increase to around 300,000 in 2030, and electrified passenger cars and vans will make up almost 9% of the total fleet in 2030.

Electrified vehicles are expanding into the global car market. However, this technology is still under development. This entails a significant uncertainty about sales and the total number of electrified vehicles up to 2030.

The projections show that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, in the absence of new measures, are expected to account for 22% of sales and almost 9% of the total number of passenger cars and vans on the road in 2030. This corresponds to approximately 300,000 electrified passenger cars and vans in 2030.

Figure 19: Electrified vehicles' share of sales of new vehicles and share of total number of passenger cars and vans on the road 2017-2030 [%].

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5.5 92% of energy consumption by transport will be fossil in 2030

Measured in relation to final energy consumption, the share of fossil fuels in the transport sector will fall from 95% in 2017 to 92% in 2030. This is due to a combination of electrification of the rail and road transport sectors as well as improved energy efficiency for conventional vehicles. Fossil fuel consumption by road transport is expected to amount to 73% of total fossil fuel consumption by the transport sector in the absence of any new measures.

Figure 20 shows that the renewables share increasingly consists of electricity produced from renewable energy sources. In 2030, the renewables share of electricity consumption by the transport sector will correspond to the consumption of first generation biofuels, whereas consumption of second generation biofuels will constitute a smaller share.

Certain multiplication factors reflecting the value of a reduced conversion loss when using

electricity must be used to calculate the renewables share in the transport sector according to the method in the Renewable Energy Directive (RES-T) (see glossary for definition of RES-T). RES-T is expected to be 9% in 2020 and will increase to 19% in 2030.

Consumption of biofuels, except for bio-natural gas, is expected to increase to 9.8 PJ in 2030, corresponding to 4% of energy consumption by the transport sector. Blending of biofuels with petrol and diesel fuel for road transport will not increase after 2020 in the absence of any new measures.

Consumption of gas which includes a growing share of bio-natural gas will increase, but bio-natural gas is expected to constitute a very limited share of renewable energy consumption in transport.

Fuel consumption for aviation is expected to be 100% based on fossil fuels throughout the period in the absence of new measures.

The projections show that the share of renewable energy in the transport sector is increasing, although renewable energy will continue to constitute a minor share of energy consumption by the transport sector. Renewable energy consumption by the transport sector will increasingly be influenced by the renewables share of electricity consumption which, in 2030, will correspond to consumption of first generation biofuels. Fuel consumption for aviation is expected to be 100%

based on fossil fuels throughout the period. The renewables share in the transport sector (RES-T) calculated on the basis of the method in the Renewable Energy Directive is expected to amount to 9% in 2020 and will increase to 19% in 2030.

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Figure 20: Renewable energy consumption by the transport sector 2017-2030 [PJ ].

5.6 Sensitivities and methodological considerations

The projections are based on the expectation of a continued increase in demand for road transport.

Moreover, the projection includes an expectation that technological developments will lead to cheaper batteries and thereby cheaper electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The project also assumes that the relaxation of vehicle registration tax for electric vehicles will be phased out in 2023.

The projection also includes the effect of new EU requirements for emissions from newly registered vehicles that is expected to lead to increased energy efficiency of conventional vehicles. So far, there has been no decision on the effect of driverless cars and car-share schemes, for example.

Road transport projections are particularly sensitive to assumptions about road transport volume, the efficiency of vehicles as well as to assumptions about future sales of petrol and diesel vehicles and electrified vehicles. In addition, there is methodological uncertainty associated with the

calculation of the difference between standard figures for fuel consumption by new vehicles and actual energy consumption when travelling on the road.

The projection does not include effects of any use of biofuel in aviation fuel.

Sensitivity analyses have been made on the phase-in rate for electrified vehicles and for biofuel blending in the aviation sector. Possible consequences of these sensitivities for overall key results are described in Chapter 1.

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