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Ryanair Annual Report (2017). Available at: https://investor.ryanair.com/results/ (Visited: 06 February 2018)
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(Visited 01 February 2018)
1 A.1 NAS Organizational Structure ... 4 A.2 NAS Ownership Structure ... 4 A.3 NAS Analytical Income Statement... 5 A.4 NAS Analytical Balance Sheet: Operational ... 6 A.5 NAS Analytical Balance Sheet: Financial ... 7 A.6 SAS Analytical Income Statement ... 8 A.7 SAS Analytical Balance Sheet: Operational ... 9 A.8 SAS Analytical Balance Sheet: Financial ... 10 A.9 easyJet Analytical Income Statement ... 11 A.10 easyJet Analytical Balance Sheet: Operational ... 12 A.11 easyJet Analytical Balance Sheet: Financial ... 13 A.12 Ryanair Analytical Income Statement ... 14 A.13 Ryanair Analytical Balance Sheet: Operational ... 15 A.14 Ryanair Analytical Balance Sheet: Financial ... 16 A.15 Capitalized Leases for NAS and the Peer Group ... 17 A.16 Historical ASK ... 18 A.17 Historical RPK ... 18 A.18 NAS Cost of Debt ... 19 A.19 SAS Cost of Debt ... 20
2 A.22 NAS Historical Borrowing Rates ... 23 A.23 SAS Historical Borrowing Rates ... 24 A.24 easyJet Historical Borrowing Rates ... 25 A.25 Ryanair Historical Borrowing Rates ... 26 A.26 NAS Forecasted Income Statement ... 27 A.27 NAS Forecasted Balance Sheet ... 28 A.28 NAS Historical and Forecasted IS Value Drivers ... 29 A.29 NAS Historical and Forecasted Balance Sheet Value Drivers ... 30 A.30 NAS Historical and Forecasted Fleet Composition ... 31 A.31 NAS Target Capital Structure ... 32 A.32 SAS Capital Structure ... 32 A.33 easyJet Capital Structure ... 32 A.34 Ryanair Capital Structure ... 32 A.35 Acquisition Valuation - Synergy Assumptions ... 33 A.36 Regression Result Against S&P 500 ... 34 A.37 Regression Result Against MSCI World ... 34 A.38 Regression Against AXGAL ... 35 A.39 Regression Against XAL ... 35 A.40. Rolling Window R-Studio Do-File ... 36
3 A.43 Base Case Share Price Sensitivity ... 38 A.44 Probability of Share Price Being Below OBX Share Price ... 39 A.45 Probability of Share Price Being Above Scenario 1 ... 39 A.46 Probability of Share Price Being Above Scenario 2 ... 40 A.47 Probability of Share Price Being Below Scenario 3 ... 40 A.48 Probability of Share Price Being Within 10% of Base Case ... 41 A.49 Probability of Share Price Being Within 20% of Base Case ... 41 A.50 Scenario 1 – Discounted Cash Flow ... 42 A.51 Scenario 2 – Discounted Cash Flow ... 43 A.52 Scenario 3 – Discounted Cash Flow ... 44 A.53 NAS Forecasted Cash Flow Statement ... 45
4
A.2 NAS Ownership Structure
5
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9
10
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15
16
17
18
A.17 Historical RPK
19
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A.32 SAS Capital Structure
A.33 easyJet Capital Structure
A.34 Ryanair Capital Structure
NOK 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Target Cap. Structure
Shares Outstanding 35 162 139 35 162 139 35 759 639 35 759 639 35 759 639
Share Price 31.12 188,20 276,20 323,70 287,00 176,00
Market Value of Equity 6 617 514 560 9 711 782 792 11 575 395 144 10 263 016 393 6 293 696 464 NIBD 12 969 770 000 24 127 781 000 32 627 802 000 39 597 213 000 47 363 289 000 Equity + NIBD 19 587 284 560 33 839 563 792 44 203 197 144 49 860 229 393 53 656 985 464
Debt Ratio 66,22 % 71,30 % 73,81 % 79,42 % 88,27 % 90,00 %
SEK 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average
Shares Outstanding 329 000 000 329 000 000 329 000 000 329 000 000 329 000 000
Share Price 31.12 19,15 15,30 16,70 15,30 25,90
Market Value of Equity 6 300 350 000 5 033 700 000 5 494 300 000 5 033 700 000 8 521 100 000 NIBD 19 019 000 000 18 039 000 000 19 726 000 000 21 387 000 000 21 548 000 000 Equity + NIBD 25 319 350 000 23 072 700 000 25 220 300 000 26 420 700 000 30 069 100 000
Debt Ratio 75,12 % 78,18 % 78,21 % 80,95 % 71,66 % 76,8%
SAS - Debt ratio
GBP 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average
Shares Outstanding 393 000 000 396 857 135 397 208 133 397 208 133 397 208 133
Share Price 31.12 12,78 14,23 17,77 10,07 12,17
Market Value of Equity 5 022 540 000 5 647 277 031 7 058 388 523 3 999 885 899 4 834 022 979
NIBD 137 000 000 410 000 000 351 000 000 501 000 000 406 000 000
Equity + NIBD 5 159 540 000 6 057 277 031 7 409 388 523 4 500 885 899 5 240 022 979
Debt Ratio 2,66 % 6,77 % 4,74 % 11,13 % 7,75 % 6,61%
easyJet - Debt ratio
EUR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average
Shares Outstanding 1 447 051 752 1 383 237 668 1 377 661 859 1 290 739 865 1 206 936 483
Share Price 31.12 5,91 6,83 11,20 11,38 14,53
Market Value of Equity 8 557 864 061 9 447 513 272 15 429 812 821 14 688 619 664 17 536 787 098
NIBD 533 300 000 382 500 000 86 300 000 526 700 000 859 300 000
Equity + NIBD 9 091 164 061 9 830 013 272 15 516 112 821 15 215 319 664 18 396 087 098
Debt Ratio 5,87 % 3,89 % 0,56 % 3,46 % 4,67 % 3,69%
Ryanair - Debt ratio
33
34
A.37 Regression Result Against MSCI World
35
A.39 Regression Against XAL
36
37
38
A.43 Base Case Share Price Sensitivity
39
A.45 Probability of Share Price Being Above Scenario 1
40
A.47 Probability of Share Price Being Below Scenario 3
41
A.49 Probability of Share Price Being Within 20% of Base Case
42
43
44