• Ingen resultater fundet

CONCLUSION

In document Copenhagen Business School (Sider 79-112)

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA is priced correctly on the Oslo Stock Exchange, as of December 31st, 2019. In order to answer the research question, a thorough analysis of the airline industry, a strategic analysis of Norwegian, and a financial analysis against peers has been conducted. As uncovered in the strategic analysis, the airline industry is characterized by high competition, low margins, and high exit-costs. Nevertheless, Norwegian has managed to grow extensively during the last decade and achieved a unique market position as the leading low-cost long-haul airline between Europe and the U.S. Furthermore, Norwegian has a strong brand and has won numerous costumer- and airline awards. However, this growth has not come cheap, as seen in the financial analysis.

Norwegian has reported negative earnings for the last three years, which makes it a difficult company to value.

The findings from the anal sis , laid the fo ndation for forecasting realistic ass mptions on key value drivers going forward. However, it is important to acknowledge that there are limitations to the assumptions, as different assumptions would have yielded a different result. Especially future investments and intangible assets as a percentage of revenues, have a big effect on the final value estimate. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis also unveiled that the value estimate is sensitive to changes in the cost of capital, the growth rate, and the oil price. Thus, again, small changes in the value drivers significantly affect the value estimate. Nevertheless, by using the discounted cash flow model, the market value of one share of equity was retrieved. The price of one share of equity in Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA per 31st of December 2019 is estimated at NOK 37.45. This seems to be a reasonable estimate as it happens to be almost the same as the market price on the last day of trading on 2019. Furthermore, the relative valuation illustrates that Norwegian is undervalued compared to peers and the European industry as of 31st of December 2019. This because, Norwegian does not share the same characteristics on risk, profitability, and cost of capital as the peers.

The fundamental analysis assumes that Norwegian will be able to refinance or increase their borro ings going for ard. This is a limitation as Nor egian s e pected earnings are forecasted to be negative for the next two years. In the case of failure to meet commitments from bond holders and aircraft producers, the existing shareholders risk losing control of the company. It

is expected that Norwegian will receive a compensation from Boeing regarding the grounding of the 737 MAX aircraft. This has not been accounted for in the discounted cash flow, and thus important to recognize.

To conclude, this thesis uncovers that there is a significant risk involved in Norwegian. The company is exposed to external threats, and favorable- or unfavorable circumstances can have a significant impact on the stock price. Therefore, a watch recommendation on Norwegian is hereby given.

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In document Copenhagen Business School (Sider 79-112)