To assess the supply situation, a reliability evaluation of the gas system is carried out. This evaluation looks at whether the system capacities are able to ensure supplies to consumers during each 24-hour period, i.e. an assessment of entry capacities, including storage volumes, in relation to consumption.
The Winter Outlook assessment examines whether the system is able to provide the necessary capacity to meet an unusually high consumption based on a winter day with temperatures below -13°C.
Assessment for the coming winter 2019/2020:
The assessment indicates that there is sufficient capacity in the gas system to meet demand on a very cold day.
Exit zone: Consumption in Denmark is 19.8 million Nm3/day. For the exit zone, the offtake corresponds to Energi-net’s expectations at a daily mean
temperature of -13°C.
Ellund: Ellund has net imports of 10.3 million Nm3/day.
Dragør: Dragør has exports of 5.6 million Nm3/day.
Storage facilities: Total withdrawal of gas from the storage facilities is estimated at 16.2 million Nm3/day, with 8.2 million Nm3/day coming from Stenlille and 8.0 million Nm3/day from Lille Torup. A distribution of withdra-wals is used which supports the highest possible grid pressure.
Nybro: Supplies at Nybro are estimated at 0.5 million Nm3/day.
RES: 1.0 million Nm3 biogas/day is supplied to the gas system.
Assessment for winter 2020/2021 The assessment indicates that there is sufficient capacity in the gas sy-stem to meet demand on a very cold day. The Tyra complex is still under reconstruction.
Exit zone: Consumption in Denmark is 19.8 million Nm3/day. For the exit zone, the offtake corresponds to Energinet’s expectations at a daily mean tempera-ture of -13°C.
Ellund: Ellund has net imports of 10.3 million Nm3/day.
Dragør: Dragør has exports of 5.6 million Nm3/day.
Storage facilities: Total withdrawal of gas from the storage facilities is estimated at 18.5 million Nm3/day in normal situations, with 8.2 million Nm³/
day coming from Stenlille and 10.3 million Nm3/day from Lille Torup. The distribution of withdrawals is optimised to achieve the highest possible grid pressure.
Nybro: Supplies in Nybro, which only come from the Syd Arne field, are estimated at 0.5 million Nm3/day.
RES: 1 million Nm3 biogas/day is supplied to the gas system.
ENERGINET’S WINTER OUTLOOK
expected in the coming period, with a constant need for gas imports
• Ellund Entry, imports of gas from Germany: The capacity order at Elland Entry is described in further detail in section 2.2.2.1. For the coming gas year, approx. 0.45 million kWh/h has been sold as bundled annual capacity, i.e. capacity at German Ellund Exit and capacity at Danish Ellund Entry. In addition, approx. 3.45 million kWh/h has been sold in advance (Open Season contracts2 and capacity sales last year). The total capacity at Ellund Entry on the Danish side is 7.7 million kWh/h.
• Joint Exit Zone, supply of gas to end customers in Denmark and Sweden: In connection with the imple-mentation of the Joint Balancing Zone with Sweden, the exit points towards Danish end users and Sweden are now gathered in one point, called Joint Exit Zone. Here, the annual capacity can be ordered all year round, which means that bookings are not necessarily placed towards the start of the gas year on 1 October. A smaller volume has been sold (just over 1 million kWh/h) for the coming gas year, as most capacity contracts run from January to
January.
• Nybro Entry: Only a minor booking has been placed, which concerns supply of gas from the Syd Arne-field, which still supplies gas.
• RES Entry, biogas upgraded to natural gas quality and injected into the transmission system: In the same way as with the exit zone, annual capacity at Renewable Energy Source Entry can be purchased throughout the year. Sales of annual capacity at this point primarily take place from January to January, which means that only a few contracts have been booked from 1 October 2019.
3.3 The cubic metre limit
A cubic metre limit is set and published each year by the Danish Energy Agency prior to the gas year, and is used to decide which customers are protected.
2 Energinet has expanded the transport connection from Ellund in the northbound direction.
Prior to the expansion, Energinet invited tenders for capacity in a bidding process (Open Sea-son) to determine the interest in the project. In the Open Season process, the companies must submit financially binding bids and may thereby acquire connection capacity.
In 2019, Energinet acquired HMN Gasnet P/S, and all distribution companies have been legally gathered in one single company under the name of Evida as from 1 October.
3.5.1 Evida
Energinet assesses that the meter and regulator stations and the distribution system throughout Denmark have sufficient capacity to cover the supply requirement for winter 2019/2020.
Before the end of 2019, a total of 17 biogas upgrading plants are expected to be connected to the distribution grid in Southern Jutland, Western Zealand and on Funen. A total capacity of 28,400 Nm3/h, corresponding to an annual capacity of 248 million Nm3, will then be connected in these areas. (In 2018, approx. 75% of the installed capacity was utilised).
In Central and Northern Jutland and in the Capital Region of Denmark, a total of 27 biogas upgrading plants are expected to be connected to the distribution grid. Here, a total capacity of 41,500 Nm3/h, corresponding to an annual capacity of 360 million Nm3, will be connected. (In 2018, approx. 69% of the installed capacity was utilised).
For the 2019/2020 gas year, the limit for protected cust-omers is 3.6 million Nm3/year. In practice, this means that industrial enterprises and gasfired CHP plants will be protected if they have an annual gas consumption of less than 3.6 million Nm3/year.
3.4 Gas quality during the coming winter
Energinet expects that gas quality in the coming winter will still be based on a combination of gas from Germany, North Sea gas and biogas injected into the gas grid. Gas from Germany typically has a lower calorific value and a lower Wobbe index than Danish North Sea gas. The increased supply of gas from Germany may lead to greater variation in gas quality in the transmission grid in the coming winter, as the gas quality from Germany will differ more from the gas quality from the storage facilities than has been the case in the previous winters.
In the coming winter, Energinet expects gas quality to vary as follows:
• The Wobbe index for gas imported from Germany is expected to be lower than that for Danish North Sea gas.
Energinet estimates that the average Wobbe index for gas from Germany will be 14.7 kWh/Nm3, varying from 13.9 to 15.5 kWh/Nm3.
• The Wobbe index for the Danish North Sea gas is expected to vary from 14.7 to 15.5 kWh/Nm3.
• The Wobbe index for upgraded biogas injected into the gas system is expected to be lower than that for Danish North Sea gas. Upgraded biogas is similar to chemical natural gas and consists primarily of methane with small quantities of carbon dioxide, nitrogen and oxygen.
Biomethane typically has a Wobbe index at the lower half of the variation range permitted in the Gas Regulation, i.e. from 14.1 to 14.8 kWh/Nm3.
3.5 Distribution
Gas supplies to the individual consumers must be maintai-nable at very low temperatures in crisis situations, where demand is expected to be unusually high. The gas system must therefore be dimensioned so that it has the necessary capacity to supply the distribution areas at all times. This is ensured by assessing natural gas offtake from each meter and regulator station. The assessments are performed by Energinet on the basis of reporting from the distribution companies.
In 2019, Energinet acquired HMN Gasnet P/S, and all
distribution companies have been legally gathered
in one single company under the name of Evida as
from 1 October.
Twice a year, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) prepares outlooks for the supply situation in Europe in the coming summer and winter (Summer Supply Outlook and Winter Supply Outlook).
In addition, as a new initiative based on the revised Security of Gas Supply Regulation, ENTSOG will prepare an analysis of the security of supply in Europe every fourth year to identify where and when problems with maintaining supplies to gas consumers may arise in the individual countries.
ENTSOG’s outlook for the coming winter 2019/2020:
• There is sufficient flexibility in most of the European gas system to withstand a cold winter.
• In case of transit disconnections through the Ukraine, combined with days of large demand for gas, the security of gas supply will be severely exposed.
• Storage filling is at a recordhigh level as at 1 October 2019. The high level is attribu-table to extraordinary high storage filling already in April 2019 as well as favourable conditions on the gas market during the injection season.
• The European domestic gas production is still declining.
The European Commission is in dialogue with Russia and the Ukraine to secure a long term transit agreement based on EU rules.
ENTSOG’s latest analysis of the security of gas supply in Europe from November 2017:
• If there is a cold winter, none of the European countries face the threat of supply failure.
• During a two-week period and a single day of exceptionally high demand in a cold winter, Denmark and Sweden may risk having to disconnect some gas consumers.
• In the event of outage of Ellund and exceptionally high demand during a two-week period or a single day, Denmark and Sweden may risk having to disconnect a major part of the gas consumers.
The result of ENTSOG’s simulation cannot be compared directly with Energinet’s own ana-lyses. The reason for this is that ENTSOG’s simulation runs over four years. The simulation does not take into account that extra firm capacity has been offered in OGE’s grid at Ellund from 2019 and that consumption is expected to decline. ENTSOG’s simulation thus paints a more negative picture than Energinet’s own analyses, as described in the preventive action plan and emergency plan at the end of 2019.