The climate crisis

Air. Many life forms breaths air to obtain the oxygen that reacts with glucose in cells to fuel basic life functions. There is 5,3*10¹⁵ tons of air in the atmosphere, made up of 78%

nitrogen, 20,95% oxygen, 0,93% argon, 0,038% carbon dioxide, trace amounts of other gases, and a variable amount (average around 1%) of water vapour [2]⁶. But carbon dioxide was not always at 380 ppm. In fact, 150 years ago it was only around 280 ppm. What is the reason for this, and what are the consequences?

It has been suggested that human activity is guilty of increas-ing the share of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With a breath of air, humans supplies oxygen to the blood, while removing carbon dioxide from the blood. An exhaled breath of air contains about 17% oxygen and 4% carbon dioxide, and in this way, humans exhale about 0,6 billion tons of carbon as carbon dioxide per year [3]. Fortunately, the act of breathing is not the culprit – but fossil fuel consumption likely is. The carbon and hydrogen content of a fuel reacts with oxygen to produce heat, emitting mainly carbon dioxide and water. It is estimated that human use of fossil fuels in 2006 releases about 8 billion tons of carbon as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere [3].

In March 1954, Charles Keeling from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography began monitoring the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere with gas analyzers at three loca-tions: Mount Loa in Hawaii, Little America in Antarctica, and La Jolla in California. In Keeling’s first paper published in 1960 [4], he presents two tentative hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that the growth of land plants results in seasonal variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, for example in 1955 dropping from 316 ppm to 309 ppm during the summer months of the Northern Hemisphere, the particular timing due to the much bigger area of growing plants in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The second hypothesis is that the observed increase in concentration of 1,3 ppm per year is the result of the combustion of fossil fuels, as it matches the estimated carbon dioxide contribution of 1,4

6 By molar content/volume.

96 Publications

9

ppm per year at the time. “[O]ne might be led to conclude that the oceans have been without effect in reducing the annual increase in concentration resulting from the combustion of fossil fuel”, as Keeling puts it.

Today, climate scientists have developed advanced models that simulates the complexity of atmospheric interactions taking place [7]. Observations have confirmed that the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increasing, and models have confirmed that the combustion of fossil fuels is the main culprit, while also assessing the consequences that increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may have. In November 2007, the working group I report from IPCC concludes that there is “[...] very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warm-ing, with a radiative forcing of 1.6 W/m²” [8]. With “very high confidence”, IPCC means above 90% probability of occurrence,

200 300 400 500 600 700 800

1958 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)

Keeling Curve IPCC Feasible Stabilization Level Range

Pre-industrial Level

Fig. 1: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppm) from March 1958 to November 2007 derived from in situ air measurements at Mauna Loa, Observatory, Hawaii – the Keeling Curve [5]. Above the Keeling Curve is included 2007 IPCC feasible mitigation stabiliza-tion level range of 445-710 ppm for which associated global mean temperature increase ranges from 2-4°C, and GDP reduction ranges from 3% to -0,6% [6]. Below the Keeling Curve is included pre-industrial level of 280 ppm.

Publications 97

10

and with “human activities”, IPCC focuses almost entirely on the combustion of fossil fuels. Concluding on the basis of a series of direct observations, IPCC concludes that the “warm-ing of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level”. IPCC is working to improve our understanding of how human activity influences the climate, and their most current findings sustains that atmospheric CO2 concentration is increasing, in particular due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and that it is leading to global warming with serious consequences for many nations and people.

In 2006, former US vice president Al Gore helped frame the problem as “the climate crisis”. In a visually most effective move in the Academy Award winning documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth”, Gore presents his point-of-no-return, certainly in his movie, but also in discussions about whether it matters that CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere are increas-ing. Gore’s chart shows two curves that are closely correlated for a period of 650,000 years. While one curve illustrates the

Fig. 2: Gore's point-of-no-return. A screen-shot from "An Inde-pendent Truth" at the point where Gore illustrates that atmos-pheric carbon dioxide and temperature have been closely corre-lated for 650.000 years. Screenshot from [9].

98 Publications

11

absolute global average temperature, the other curve illus-trates the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The curves are based on data obtained from the British Antarctic Survey that have been drilling into the Antarctic ice core for years, reaching more than 3 km below the surface of Antarctica. The temperature curve is then deducted on the basis of a spec-trometry of certain isotopes in the ice, while the CO2 curve is compiled from the analysis of small pockets of air remaining in the ice. Using an industrial truck lift, Gore theatrically estab-lishes the current level of CO2 concentration, which is at 380 ppm in the atmosphere or around 30% higher than ever before during the last 650,000 years. From present day levels, Gore illustrates that the CO2 concentration, growing 200 times faster than ever before, is projected to reach about 500 ppm in 50 years, almost 80% above the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm [9,10].

“[F]or their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowl-edge about man-made climate change, and to lay the founda-tions for the measures that are needed to counteract such change”, IPCC and Al Gore was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. As the Norwegian Nobel Committee concludes their nomination: “[a]ction is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control.”

The recognition of this problem, the climate crisis, and the urgency in mitigating the extent hereof, is of fundamental significance to the work undertaken with the thesis. World leaders are buying in to the climate crisis, but setting political goals is perhaps really the easy part. The difficult part is building understanding and wisdom about problems and opportunities, engaging the right people to address opportu-nity, while attracting the will and power to implement effective solutions. The thesis takes on itself to contribute in the area of this more difficult part. But how may we fundamentally know how to deal with options that intend to solve serious problems, such as the climate crisis? How do we reach an acceptable level of understanding about what would be the rational and responsible thing to do, and how will we act upon this under-standing?

Publications 99

12