Germany's energy sector remains one of the largest single sources of CO2 emissions in Europe.
Emissions from large sources72 are assessed at ~280 MtCO2 in 2017.
Today, energy in Germany is sourced predominantly by fossil fuels, followed by wind, nuclear power, solar, biomass (wood and biofuels) and hydro. As illustrated in Figure 3, supply is transforming towards heavier use of renewable energy sources in 2050; natural gas will remain an important energy source towards 2050.
Germany also has a substantial industrial sector with a high level of emissions (108.0 MtCO2 in 2017), including production and processing of iron and steel, refining, chemicals/petrochemicals, and cement.
The calculated capturable quantity of CO2 is estimated at on average 35 MtCO2/y between 2022 and 2040 and 49 MtCO2/y between 2041 and 2050, from close to 200 different large power and industrial processing facilities. The largest share of capturable CO2 is expected to be derived from the power & heat sector (natural gas-fired power plants and biomass-fired plants).
Within the industrial sector largest potential is assessed within the cement industry and refineries due to lacking alternatives to abate emissions, followed by other industries where CCS is relevant but only one option, i.e., chemical industry and iron & steel).
69 Thema Consulting Group, “The role of carbon capture and storage in a carbon neutral Europe”; “Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan” of Germany; The European Commission, “Assessment of final national energy and climate plan of Germany”
70 Germany’s Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP 2030)
71 Media Group: Germany Launches CCUS Support
72 Plants with emissions exceeding 100,000 MtCO2/y
Figure 3:Germany’s potential energy mix towards 2050
Source: Ramboll Analysis; EWI Research, “The energy market in 2030 and 2050 – The contribution of gas and heat infrastructure to efficient carbon emission reductions.”
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Table 19: CCS potential (intended for storage) in Germany
Sector CO2
• The overall significance of CCS within the German power & heat sector is low due to the focus on renewable power generation.
However, the German government has expressed an interest in BECCS due to negative emissions compensating some industry and agricultural emissions hard to abate. Significance of CCS is also assessed to be high in case of non-recyclable and biogenic share of waste-to-energy and for emissions from natural gas-fired power plants
• The capturable volume of CO2 intended for storage within the segment is estimated at up to ~36 MtCO2/y
• The capturable quantities are evenly split between power plants fired on natural gas and those fired on biomass. However, the dynamics within these two segments are quite different. After an introduction around 2030, a capturable amount of CO2 from gas plants would quickly ramp up to comprise more than 50% of this industry by 2040. A further increase is expected towards 2050, as it is likely that only CCS-retrofitted plants will be allowed to operate. The overall share of capturable CO2 emissions from biomass-fired plants is expected to be much lower (~20%) but constant through the entire period (2030-2050)
• CCS is not considered relevant for coal-driven plants since they will be phased out shortly after the CCS introduction
Industry 108.0 154
(14)
150 (15)
• Germany has a substantial industrial sector with a high level of emissions (108.0 MtCO2 in 2017), including production and processing of ferrous metals (28.6 Mt in 2017, mainly related to iron and steel), refining (21.1 MtCO2 in 2017), chemicals/
petrochemicals (24.6 Mt in 2017) and cement (25.0 MtCO2 in 2017)
• The significance of CCS within the industrial sector varies across disciplines. It is assessed highest for cement processing and refining, where there are currently no other ways to reduce the process emissions significantly. Although switch of fossil fuels to biomass can reduce some emissions from cement processing, BECCS could still be an option to create negative emissions. Potential is also assessed within iron and steel, and chemicals. However, CCS is only one of several options on how to abate emissions (alternatives include electricity, green hydrogen and recycling). In general, the chemical industry is prioritizing CCU over CCS
• According to Germany’s Economy and Energy Ministry, around 30-40% of industrial emissions are process-linked and cannot be avoided using today's state of the art technology74.
• The total capturable volume intended for storage is estimated at up to ~18 MtCO2/y (peak between 2030 and 2040), and the highest potential is assessed within the mineral processing/cement industry. Ramp-up of the CCS within the industrial sector is expected to be relatively quick and reach the full potential already in 2035
• CCS is also considered highly relevant for reducing CO2 emissions within:
o Chemical industry; Although the chemical industry is large in Germany, CCS is expected to be less prioritised than the alternative measures to abate emissions
o Iron and steel industry; Using hydrogen is an alternative (and high priority for the German government). Although the clear focus of the recently published Hydrogen Strategy is on green hydrogen production in- and outside of Germany (due to limited capacity/ability to produce enough green hydrogen, Germany is looking into collaborations with other countries), there are no provisions against the import and use of blue hydrogen75. Blue hydrogen is therefore expected to be a transitional solution, creating a need for CCS
o The gas refining industry; Given the long-term commitment to natural gas via the Nord Stream pipeline Other 18.8 - - • No other significant potential areas have been assessed
73 Average CO2 capturable amount is calculated for the time period 2030-2040
74 The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a Carbon Neutral Europe, Carbon Limits, 2020
75 Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy – “Die Nationale Wasserstoffstrategie”