Trafikdage 2018 – 27. august
Elkøretøjer, status og fremtiden - Overblik
Elbilmarkedet i Danmark…
Elbiler på markedet
Billeder fra www.elbil.no
• Source: Bloomberg
Interessante elbiler på vej
Jaguar iPace
• Rækkevidde:
480 km
• Pris: fra 740.000 kr.
• Leveres: 2018
Tesla Model 3
• Rækkevidde:
500-600 km
• Pris: fra 430.000 kr.
• Leveres: 2019
Audi eTron
• Rækkevidde:
500 km
• Pris: ca.
800.000 kr.
• Leveres: 2019
VW I.D.
• Rækkevidde:
400-600 km
• Pris: ca.
300.000 kr.
• Leveres: 2020
Elbiler er lidt som en Smartphone…
… Der er altid en ny og smartere på vej.
Energipolitik i mobilitet
Bi le r Bu s/L as tb il Na tio nal t
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1992 Euro 1
1996 Euro 2
2000 Euro 3
2005 Euro 4
2009 Euro 5a 1992 Euro 1
1998 Euro 2
2000 Euro 3
2005 Euro 4
2008 Euro 5
2014 Euro 6
2014 Euro 6 1973 Bilfrie søndag
1984 Indførsel af afgiftsfrihed på el og
brintbiler 2014 Forlængelse af
afgiftsfritagelse
2016 Indfasning af afgifter på elbiler
2015 130 CO2 g/km 2021 max 95 g
CO2/km
2017 Dobbelt indgreb
på afgifter
Denmark│Q4 was by far the best quarter ever, breaking 1,000 vehicles for the first time 8 for a total of 2,555 vehicles.
EV SALES 2015
• Q4 sales was off the charts with an increase of 280%
compared to Q3.
• The removal of the tax exemption has pushed a lot of sales from 2016 to 2015. This is especially seen with Tesla, who registered 1,886 vehicles in Q4.
• The sales have almost tripled compared to 2014.
• Despite minor changes to the new tax system for EVs, Insero expects the sales to drop at a steep level, as the top- selling EVs will increase significantly in price.
SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2015 SALES
• The B-segment has seen a decrease of 2% since Q3 2015.
It now accounts for 7% of the total sales.
• The C-segment is down from 28% to 18% of total sales.
• The E-segment has a magnificent share of 57% following the Tesla run in November and December.
• Over the full year, the van-segment has dropped steadily and now makes up 10%.
• The number of PHEV models has increased again with 2 new models available, and so has the share of sales which now makes up 5%.
2. SALES STATISTICS│NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2015
Van-segment Other 10%
PHEV 1%
5%
E-segment 57%
D-segment 0%
C-segment 18%
B-segment 7%
A-segment 2%
The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below).
mar-15 feb-15
79 jan-15
69
649
oct 228
476
-65%
apr-15 193
545 240
aug-15
jul-15 nov
may - 15 204 252
Q1
913
2015Q3 sep-15 649
jun-15
128
Q2
2.724 849
+186%
2015YTD YTD 2014 1.6782.5554.741
1.659
2015Q4 dec 624
340
494 D-segment
C-segment
Other PHEV B-segment
E-segment A-segment
Van-segment
9 Denmark │ The effects of the frontloading of sales in Q4 2015 have disappeared, as Q3 sales increased with
154% compared to Q2. B- and C-segment sales grew significantly and accounted for 92% of Q3 sales alongside PHEVs. These three segments are expected to perform very well in Q4.
EV SALES 2016
• YTD sales have dropped with 19,8% compared to the same period in 2015, which is a significant improvement
compared to Q2. The effects of the frontloading of sales in Q4 2015 seem now to have disappeared, as sales have reached a level similar to Q1 and Q2 in 2015.
• The B-, C- and PHEV-segments are driving sales, as they accounted for 92% in Q3 and 84% of YTD sales.
• The B- and PHEV-segments are expected to perform well in the coming quarters as the introduction of new, improved models, presumably, will drive sales up.
SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)
• The B-segment increased its market share from 18% to 29%, as Renault Zoe sales increased to 228 vehicles in Q3, due to new car sharing companies focusing on this model.
• The C-segment increased from 5% to 16% with massive BMW i3 registrations, while the A-segment decreased from 7% to 3%.
• The E-segment continues to drop, from 10% to 5% in Q3.
which indicates some cannibalization between Tesla vehicles, as the J-segment and Model X accounted for similar sales.
• The Van segment dropped slightly again from 4% to 3%.
• The PHEVs account for 39% of 2016 YTD sales, which is a decrease of 12% compared to Q2. However, PHEV sales is still increasing, and the drop in market share should be seen as a result of a significant increase in BEV sales.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2016
E-segment D-segment
B-segment
5%
39%
A-segment 3%
PHEV
C-segment 0%
16%
J-segment Van-segment
5%
29%
3%
The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below).
426 72 181
123
122 91
368 175
150 103
322 756 198 236
Mar-16 94
Feb-16 Jan-16
57
apr-16 Q1
54
71
Q2
57
94
1.100
Q3 2016
1.372
YTD 2015 YTD 2016
616 315
sep-16 52
aug-16 88
242 114
Jun-16
213
jul-16 Maj-16
242 D-segment
Van-segment B-segment
PHEV E-segment A-segment C-segment
J-segment
Nordic │ The Nordic electric vehicle market saw record quarters in Norway, Sweden and Finland in Q4,
10while Danish sales increased as expected due to the introduction of 40% tax on EVs in 2017.
• Q4 breaks the record; Norway, Sweden and Finland showing impressive sales.
• Sales growth slowed down in 2016; year-over-year sales increased with 29% compared to 2015.
• Nordic EV sales are stabilizing; the effects of the current incentives structure seem to be decreasing.
• 2017 will be an interesting year for EVs:
1. Denmark increases registration tax to 40%
2. Norwegian EV market seems to be maturing
3. Can Finland and Sweden continue the positive PHEV trend?
• Sweden and Norway keep delivering; Q4 2016 beats Q4 2015 with 11% despite Danish slump.
• Sales is stabilizing; Q4 saw relatively stabile sales throughout the period.
• 15,000 seems to be the magic number; Nordic EV sales surpass 15,000 vehicles for the fifth consecutive quarter
If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here
The numbers on top indicate accumulated Nordic EV sales in the given period 2. SALES STATISTICS │ NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q4 2016
13.079
8.264 11.123
11.152
11.411
11.698
45.384
34.260 3.783
3.410
3.743
4.741
334 15.771
Q3
867
13.898
390 2.143
15.418
281
Q1 Q4
16.761
413
1.967
47.910 +29%
YTD 2015 645 YTD 2016
61.848
1.418 Q2
616
3.783 3.290
3.687
4.354
3.657
11.698
9.079 1.353
1.262
1.168
2.555
Q4 2015 15.056 +11%
132 Q4 2016
16.761
280
135
oct 16 5.126
136
dec 16 5.611 452
nov 16 6.024
413 867
149
128 NO
FI SE DK
NO FI SE DK
EV sales 2016
EV sales Q4 2016
11
Nordic │ The Nordic electric vehicle market witnessed record quarters in Norway, Sweden and Finland in Q1, while Danish sales dropped as expected due to the introduction of 40% tax on EVs in 2017.
However, the Danish decline was significantly greater than first anticipated.
• Sales is increasing; Q1 sales beats all previous quarters in 2016.
• Q1 has been a strong quarter across the Nordic Region except Denmark. Insero does, nonetheless, expect better sales in the forthcoming quarters of 2017 due to the Danish tax freeze.
• In 2017 Insero expects an increase in sales of 20%
compared to 2016 across the Nordic Region. The sale increased is projected to be driven by the tax freeze in Denmark and positive EV market penetration in Sweden and Finland.
• Sweden and Norway keep delivering; Q1 2017 beats Q4 2016 with 9% despite the Danish collapse.
• Norway and Denmark had March as the best selling month while Sweden and Finland's sales peaked in January.
• The combined Nordic EV sale exceeded 18,000 vehicles in Q1 2017 for the first time in one quarter.
If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here
The numbers on top indicate accumulated Nordic EV sales in the given period 2. SALES STATISTICS │ NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q1 2017
13.079
8.264 11.123
11.152
11.411
11.698
45.384
34.260 3.783
3.410
3.743
4.741 +29%
1.418
Q3 Q4
15.418
281
YTD 2016 16.761
15.771
1.967
413
Q2 Q1
13.898
616
390 2.143
61.848 867
334
645 47.910
YTD 2015
3.879 3.783
4.956
3.948
4.770
13.674
11.698 1.414
1.266
Q1 2017 50
1.199 6.484
5.327 30 217
18.262
603 150
jan 16 236
mar 16 26
feb 16
106
867 6.451
+9%
Q4 2016 413 16.761 NO
FI SE DK
NO FI SE DK
EV sales by the end of 2016
EV sales Q1 2017
12
Nordic │ The Nordic electric vehicle market witnessed record quarters in Norway, Sweden and Finland in Q2, while Danish sales are trying to get back on track due to the tax freeze on EVs in 2017.
Consequently, the Danish market managed to grow slightly in Q2 compared to Q1.
• Sales are increasing; Q2 sales beat all previous quarters in 2016.
• Q2 has been a strong quarter across the Nordic Region except Denmark who is still severely behind previous sales numbers despite growth in Q2. Insero does, nonetheless, expect better sales in the forthcoming quarters of 2017 due to the Danish tax freeze.
• In 2017 Insero expects an increase in sales of 20%
compared to 2016 across the Nordic Region. The sale increased is projected to be driven by the tax freeze in Denmark and positive EV market penetration in Sweden and Finland and is currently 26 % up compared to YTD numbers 2016.
• Sweden, Finland, and Norway keep delivering; Q2 2017 beats Q1 2017 with 8,05% despite the Danish market remains at a low level.
• All markets had June as the best selling month. In total 7.873 vehicles were sold across the four countries beating the previous record from December 15 (6.662).
• For the second quarter in a row the combined Nordic EV sale exceeded 18.000 vehicles and is close to surpass 19.000 for the first time.
If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q2 2017
3.879
4.079
7.958
5.886 13.674
13.860
27.534
22.275
1.309
+26%
29.316 484 37.057
671 256
Q2 YTD 2016
18.777
688
YTD 2017 18.280
621 Q1
4.079 3.743
3.419
4.374
6.067
13.860
11.152 1.459
1.455
+22%
jun 16
150
15.418
251 96
maj 16
242
688 7.873
Q2 2016 281 18.777
Q2 2017 1.165
6.090
202
28 235
26
4.814
apr 16
NO FI SE DK
NO FI SE DK
EV sales YTD 2017
EV sales Q2 2017
13
Nordic │ The Nordic electric vehicle market witnessed record quarters in Norway, Sweden and Finland in Q3, while Danish sales are trying to get back on track due to the tax freeze on EVs in 2017.
Consequently, the Danish market managed to grow significantly in Q3 compared to Q2.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q2 2017
3.879
12.595
9.296 13.674
4.079
4.637
43.595
33.686 13.860
16.061
18.777
Q1 Q2
782 485
Q3
741
18.280 688
621
21.965
1.005 45.087
1.100
YTD 2017
+31%
59.022
2.091
YTD 2016
4.637 3.410
3.989
5.474
6.598
16.061
11.411 1.820
1.800
aug 16 233 1.017
105
7.811 279
5.340
291
101
8.814
258
jul 16
782
15.771 485
sep 16
334 Q3 2016 Q3 2017
616 21.965
+39%
NO FI SE DK
NO FI SE DK
EV sales YTD 2017
EV sales Q3 2017
• Sales are increasing; Q3 sales beat all previous quarters in 2017 with a noteworthy mark.
• Q3 has been a strong quarter across the Nordic Region except Denmark who are down 131 registrations compared to Q3 2016 despite noteworthy growth in Q3 2017. Insero does, nonetheless, expect better sales in the forthcoming quarters of 2017 due to the Danish tax freeze.
• In 2017 Insero expects an increase in sales of more than 25% compared to 2016 across the Nordic Region. The sale increase is projected to be driven by the tax freeze in Denmark and positive EV market penetration in Sweden and Finland and is currently 31 % up compared to YTD numbers 2016.
• Sweden, Finland, and Norway keep delivering; Q3 2017 beats Q2 2017 with incredible 16,98% despite the Danish market remaining at a low level.
• All markets except Denmark had September as the best selling month. In total 8.814 vehicles were sold across the four countries beating the previous record from June 17 (7.873)
• For the first quarter ever the combined Nordic EV sale exceeded 21.000 vehicles and is close to surpass 22.000.
Both Q1 and Q2 struggle with surpassing the 19.000 hallmark.
If you are interested in a more detailed
analysis, get in touch with us here
14
Nordic │ The Nordic electric vehicle market saw record quarters in Norway, Sweden and Finland in Q4, while Danish sales are starting to show promising trends. Consequently, the Danish market managed to grow in Q4 compared to Q3 but is still 298 registrations behind Q4 2016
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q4 2017
6.676
19.271
13.079 13.674
13.860
16.061
19.427
63.022
45.384 4.637
4.079
YTD 2016 3.059
1.310
+40%
61.848 86.662
569
Q4
1.967
Q3 YTD 2017
968
1.418 27.640
Q1
18.777
21.965
688
782 18.280
485
Q2 3.879
621
6.676
3.783 5.417
5.900
8.110
19.427
11.698 2.203
2.300
2.173
569
dec 16 10.737
16.761
413 867 +65%
Q4 2017 968
Q4 2016 27.640
309 115
nov 16 8.098
365
oct 16 294
8.805 240
214
NO FI SE DK
NO FI SE DK
EV sales 2017
EV sales Q4 2017
• Sales are increasing; Q4 sales beat all previous quarters in 2017 with a noteworthy mark
• Sales growth increased in 2017; year-over-year sales increased with 40% compared to 2016
• Nordic EV sales are jumping; both Norway and Sweden made some noteworthy registration leaps in 2017 while Finland is increasing in a controlled phase
• 2018 will be an exciting year for EVs:
1. Denmark decided to freeze the tax registration of EVs at 40% and moved towards a more PHEV “friendly”
registration system
2. Norway is close to surpassing the 20.000 registration hallmark
3. The Swedish market seems to have increased the adoption momentum, and Volvo decided to commit to the development of PHEV technology
• Sweden, Finland, and Norway keep delivering; Q4 2017 beats Q3 2017 with incredible 25,84% despite the Danish market remaining at a low level.
• December was the best selling month. In total 10.737 vehicles were sold across the four countries beating the previous record from September 17 (8.814)
• For the first quarter ever the combined Nordic EV sale exceeded 27.000 vehicles and is close to surpass 28.000.
Both Q1 and Q2 struggle with surpassing the 19.000 hallmark.
If you are interested in a more detailed
analysis, get in touch with us here
Opsummering
624 649
913
1678
242 242
616
867
106 150
485
624 649 569
913
1678
242 242
616
867
106 150
485
624 649 569
913
1678
242 242
616
867
106 150
485
624 649 569
913
1678
242 242
616
867
106 150
485
569
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4
QUARTERLY SALES OF EVS IN DENMARK 2015-2017
Status nu…
Pris fra: 193.969 kr. Pris fra: 318.698 kr. Pris fra: 312.675 kr.
… Og I grafen
624 649
913
1678
242 242
616
867
106 150
485
569
1027
1194
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2
QUARTERLY SALES OF EVS IN DENMARK 2015-2018
18INSERO QUARTERLY Q2 2018
