SHIPPERS’ FORUM
13 September 2018
PROGRAMME
12.00 Lunch and networking 13.00 Welcome
Clement Johan Ulrichsen, Energinet Gas TSO 13.15 Gas market developments
Thomas Egebo, Energinet 13.35 General Market Update
Signe Louise Rasmussen, Energinet Gas TSO 13.55 Interactive survey
Dorte Kristiansen, Energinet Gas TSO
14.55 Tyra redevelopment 2019-2022
• PRISMA auction 2 July 2018 –Christian Rutherford, Energinet Gas TSO
• Supply and demand without Tyra –Christian Meiniche Andersen, Energinet Gas TSO
• Market measures –Christian Rutherford, Energinet Gas TSO
15.15 Tariff Projection Model
Jeppe Danø, Energinet Gas TSO 15.25 Gas Storage Denmark
Hans-Åge Nielsen, Gas Storage Denmark 15.40 Negotiation on Emergency Storage
Jeppe Danø, Energinet Gas TSO 15.50 Final remarks
14.25Coffeebreak and networking
WELCOME
Clement Johan Ulrichsen
Head of Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO
PROBABLY THE BEST BALANCING MODEL…
“Denmark provides an excellent example of an implementation built upon best practice taken from the more developed North-West European countries and further evolved thanks to a
continuous and inclusive stakeholder engagement” (page 50)
ACER report: Best practise balancing model in Denmark
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5
HANDLING SYD ARNE GAS QUALITY
To secure North Sea volumes during Tyra Redevelopment
How Energinet expect to handle any Syd Arne gas quality deviations:
• Today: Blending with Tyra gas in Nybro
• Expectation for 2019-2022: Blending with Ellund gas in Egtved
Off-spec fee paid by Nybro shippers with off- spec gas
2/4
18.6 % BIOMETHANE IN GRID IN JULY 2018
Biomethane and other flow data available on Energinet’s Energi Data Service Link: energidataservice.dk/dataset/gasflow
3/4
TWO TENDERS COMING UP
• Deadline for bidding 3 October 2018, 12.00
• Tender by a pay-as-bid auction
• You will receive an invitation and a spread sheet for bidding
• If you have any questions, please contact noedforsyning@energinet.dk
• Deadline for bidding 2 October 2018, 12.00
• Energinet expects to purchase up to 110 GWh
• Tender by a pay-as-bid auction
• You will receive an invitation and a spread sheet for bidding
• If you have any questions, please contact noedforsyning@energinet.dk
1. Emergency gas 2. Individual filling requirements 4/4
QUESTIONS
email: cju@energinet.dk
GAS MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Thomas Egebo
CEO, Energinet
ENERGY ACROSS BORDERS
Joint Balancing Zone
Tyra
IN THE MIDDLE OF A MAJOR TRANSITION
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STRONG POLITICAL WILL FOR GREEN GAS
PARIS 2050
Regulatory framework for competitive development of biogas and other green gasses
Possibilities for convertion and storage of electricity in gaseous forms
- Danish Energy Agreement 29th June 2018
Danish gas strategy Reform of EU gas regulation
“The future energy system must be based on several forms of energy”
”The gas sector must now prove that it is a part of the long term solution”
-Klaus Dieter Borchardt, director, DG Energy
13
THE VALUE CHAIN IS CHANGING
New market players
Decentralized gas production
Consolidation of gas distribution
New retail business models
TOGETHER TODAY AND ON FUTURE CHALLENGES
2019-2022 Paris 2050
100% GREEN GAS GRID IN 2050
Photograph: Maersk oil and gas, Tyra field Photograph: HyBalance, Electolyzer Photograph: NGF nature energy,, Holsted biogas plant
QUESTIONS
email: teg@energinet.dk
GENERAL MARKET UPDATE
Signe Louise Rasmussen
Economist, Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO
INTRODUCTION OF EDIG@S VERSION 5.1
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Network code on interoperability and data exchange rules
To day
• Edig@s 4.0
1 October 2018
• Edig@s 4.0
• Edig@s 5.1
Testing
•Shipperguide on Edig@s 5.1 will be published on website
• Contact
backoffice@energinet.dk 1/3
RULES FOR GAS TRANSPORT VERSION 18.0
The changes are:
• BNG Entry point will change name to RES Entry (Renewable Energy Sources)
• Introduction of single sided nomination at Ellund
• Underrun charge will be removed
• Other minor changes
Enter into force on 1 October 2018
Public consultation on 17 - 26 September
Anmodning@energinet.dk 2/3JOINT BALANCING ZONE – METHOD APPROVAL
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Deadline for market consultation
6 July 2018 Start of Energinet´s
market consultation 8 June 2018
Adjustments to methodology
document
Final methodology document sent to
DUR start August
Deadline of DUR´s public consultation 3 September 2018
3 comments received during Energinet´s consultation
0 comments received during Danish Utility Regulation´s (DUR) consultation
3/3
JOINT BALANCING ZONE – NEXT STEPS
Timeline
2018 2019
aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mar apr
Activity
JBZ goes live
01-04
Implementation Phase
13-09 19-09 Shippers’ Forum & Gasmarknadsråd
Sweden: Samråd om Balanceansvarsaftale Regulatory approval SE - Rules
Regulatory approval DK - Hearing Regulatory approval DK - Method
Tests DSO Sweden Tests BA/Shipper
3/3
QUESTIONS TO THE JOINT BALANCING ZONE
Do not hesitate to contact us at JBZ@swedegas.se
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Or if you want to become a shipper in Sweden
3/3
QUESTIONS
email: slr@energinet.dk
INTERACTIVE SURVEY
Dorte Kristiansen
23
Senior Consultant, Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO
YOU SPEAK – WE LISTEN
Energinet’s reputation survey Your view on:
• Our daily service
• Our decisions
• Market involvement
Warm up = This Kahoot survey
Your honest opinion is appreciated
25
5 QUESTIONS
Link:
www.kahoot.it
Enter Game PIN Level of anonymity:
Choose your nickname wisely
COMMENTS
email: dgk@energinet.dk
TYRA REDEVELOPMENT
2019-2022
27
PRISMA AUCTION 2 JULY
Christian Rutherford
Chief Economist, Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO
29
LOW CAPACITY
BOOKING AT ELLUND
• Energinet: Advised shippers to book capacity during the Tyra shutdown period.
• Gasunie Deutschland: 1 GWh/h extra would only be built and added to Ellund, if booked.
• Result: Existing capacity was far from sold out.
• Capacity will not be established for Ellund:
but for Northern German market area.
Shippers booked less than expected
0,35
1 0,75
0,4 0
0,9
2 2,25
2,6
2,1
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5
GWh/h
Annual auction July ‘18, Ellund DE (GUD) DK
Sold capacity Unsold capacity
CAPACITY OVERVIEW ELLUND ENTRY
Point/GY (in kWh/h)
Gas Year 2018 Gas year 2019 Gas Year 2020 Gas Year 2021 Gas Year 2022
Technical firm capacity (GUD & OGE)
4.2 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h
Total booked capacity (GUD
& OGE)
3.2 GWh/h 3.7 GWh/h 3.3 GWh/h 3 GWh/h -
Available capacity (GUD
& OGE)
1 GWh/h (only GUD)
1.4 GWh/h 1.8 GWh/h 2.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h
After auction 2 July 2018 – bundled capacity without extra 1 GWh/h at GUD
QUESTIONS
email: cru@energinet.dk
SUPPLY AND DEMAND WITHOUT TYRA
Christian Meiniche Andersen
Head of Gas System Operations, Energinet Gas TSO
DANISH NORTH SEA 2017-2042, DEA AUGUST 2018
33
New forecast not incorporated
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
BCM
Exploration reserves Technology reserves Proven reserves
Exploration reserves 2017 Technology reserves 2017 Proven reserves 2017
No news on the supply
situation 2019-2022
POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2019
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
uar ruar arts pril Maj Juni Juli ust ber ber ber ber
Million m3
Storage injection Export Germany Sweden
Denmark
Storage withdrawel Import Germany Nybro
BNG
Tyra partly closing down Tyra closed
SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2019-2022
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Described in August 2017
https://energinet.dk/Gas/Tyra/Forsyningsbilledet
Memorandum PowerPoint
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE AUGUST 2017
1. The technical withdrawal capacity at the Lille Torup storage facility is being expanded in 2018 from 8 to 10 mcm/day to support the emergency supply capabilities of the overall system (N-1 incident). The necessary technical modifications at the plant are ongoing.
2. New Analysis preliminary Assumptions 2018 from the Danish Energy Agency in August 2018 with an expected decrease in Danish gas consumption 2018-2022.
3. Prisma Auction 2 July 2018 – limited bookings of entry capacity in Ellund
The supply situation seems improved. However the demand forecast is uncertain (closing of CHP plants)
The supply-situation depends on your bookings and utilization of storage capacity and
Ellund entry capacity
QUESTIONS
email: can@energinet.dk
MARKET MEASURES
Christian Rutherford
Chief Economist Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO
39
STATUS METHOD APPROVAL – BALANCING (TYRA)
3 measures have been forwarded to DUR for approval:
1. Removal of price caps
2. New method for calculating adjustment step 2 3. New formula for imbalance prices in Emergency Status
• 0 responses to DUR market consultation
• 4 responses to Energinet market consultation – mainly addressing new formula for imbalance prices in Emergency
• Energinet response in appendix 1 of the application
Method application forwarded to DUR start July
TYRA – BUNDLED FILLING REQUIREMENTS
Reasoning for bundling filling requirements with storage volume
• Storage customers certain that Energinet Gas TSO will buy filling requirements when booking this storage capacity
• Increase options for buying and selling filling requirements for storage customers and Energinet Gas TSO
Next steps
• Energinet Gas TSO and Gas Storage Denmark is finalising concept
• Expected to be subject for method approval
• In any case, concept will be subject for market consultation
Joint concept between Energinet Gas TSO and Gas Storage Denmark
TYRA – OTHER MEASURES
1. Emergency Workshop
• New workshop expected in March 2019 2. Minimal Storage Filling
• Plan to implement graphical view towards May 2019 (beginning of storage year) 3. New secondary products at PRISMA
• Expected towards October 2019
4. Interruptible within-day capacity at Ellund
• Expected towards October 2019
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Timeline for implementation – 4 measures
QUESTIONS
email: cru@energinet.dk
TARIFF PROJECTION MODEL
Jeppe Danø
43
Market Director, Energinet Gas TSO
PURPOSE OF A SIMPLIFIED TARIFF MODEL
• Communicate updated budget forecasts.
• Provide a transparent tariff forecast for the Tyra renovation period and the Baltic Pipe project.
• Allow shippers and DUR an instrument to assess the impact of alternative cost allocation methodologies.
• Enabling network users to reproduce the calculation of reference prices and their accurate forecast in compliance with TAR NC Art. 7 and Art. 30 2 (b): …a simplified tariff model, updated regularly, accompanied by the explanation of how to use it, enabling network users to calculate the transmission tariffs applicable for the prevailing tariff period and to estimate their possible evolution beyond such tariff period.
• The forecasted tariffs as well as the cost and flow input are non-binding and intended for indicative purposes exclusively. Energinet will aim to update the model regularly.
Network users have requested a transparent overview of the tariff calculations and
methodologies. It is also a requirement of TAR NC
PROJECTION OF TARIFFS AND TRANSPORTATION COSTS
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2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025
DKK/kWh
Gas year
Development in transportation costs
Entry Exit Flow Storage Total
Disclaimer: Indicative results from the model. The results could be adjusted for new input prior to being
published.
The model will show the expected development in capacity tariffs, flow tariffs and
average transportation costs
ADJUSTABLE ASSUMPTIONS
Scenario in use With Baltic Pipe
% change in simulation data
Unit 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025
CAPEX cost % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
OPEX cost % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Capacity % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Flow % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Green = adjustable cell
With Baltic Pipe
Without Baltic Pipe
Percentage adjustment in cost, capacity and flow assumptions
The user can adjust assumptions and discover the impact on expected tariffs
CALCULATION OF TOTAL TRANSPORTATION COSTS
Calculation of total transportation costs: shipper
Load factor Entry 0,82
Load factor Exit 0,79
Flow in kWh 40.000.000
Entry capacity booking in kWh/h/y 5.569 Exit capacity booking in kWh/h/y 5.780
Shippers cost of transportation based on flow and load factor assumption above
Unit 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Transportation cost, uniform DKK 428.361 450.039 471.268 284.073 266.053 255.813
Entry DKK 128.486 137.413 141.090 91.340 85.577 81.389
Exit DKK 133.366 142.631 146.448 94.809 88.827 84.480
Flow DKK 166.509 169.995 183.731 97.924 91.649 89.943
Transportation cost, uniform EUR 57.583 60.497 63.351 38.187 35.765 34.388
Year on year development % na 5% 5% -40% -6% -4%
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The user can calculate his expected transportation costs given an expected flow and load factor
Adjustable load factor
Adjustable flow expectations
Disclaimer: Indicative results from the model. The results could be adjusted for new input prior to being published.
QUESTIONS
email: jda@energinet.dk
SHIPPERS FORUM
Hans-Åge Nielsen
BALLERUP 14TH SEPTEMBER 2018
• Latest Gas Market Messages concerning storage
• New interruptible tariffs for SY-18
• Storage capacities SY-19
• Variable injection tariff for SY-19
• FCFS with price garuantee
• Other products for SY-19
AGENDA
GMM 24thApril: 310 GWh reduction on volume capacity caused by prolonged maintenance of the caverns.
GMM 4th September: Update – the reduction is reduced with 75 GWh. The capacity is for sale. This is based on new calculations on calorific value.
GAS MARKET MESSAGES – VOLUME CAPACITY SY18
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NEW INTERRUPTIBLE TARIFFS
Difference between gas from Tyra and Germany reduces the volume capacity in SY 19 with app. 750 GWh.
• Less calorific value
• Less compressibility (Z-factor)
• Total capacity in 2018: 10,421 GWh
• Total capacity in 2019: 9,682 GWh
CAPACITIES FOR SY 2019
53
German gas 2,0 MWh/m3stored
at 150 barg 15 °C
Danish gas 2,4 MWh/m3stored
at 150 barg 15 °C
The variable injection tariff will rise in SY-19 due to:
• Higher energy prices
• Lower calorific value
• Lower Z-factor
The new tariff for injection will be 0,00223 DKK/kWh or approx. 0,3 €/MWh
For SY-18 it is 0,00173 DKK/kWh
VARIABLE INJECTION TARIFF SY-19
FCFS prices for SY 2019, 2020 and 2021:
2,6 €/MWh/year for 170/170 days SBU 3,3 €/MWh/year for 170/85 days SBU 4,0 €/MWh/year for 120/60 days SBU Injection: 750 €/MW/year Withdrawal: 3,000 €/MW/year Price garuantee:
GSD guarantees that the prices notified above are the best prices for corresponding SBU-product or for any other derived SBU-product, sold on auction or FCFS conducted by GSD in the period
from today 24 August 2018 to 30 April 2019
FCFS WITH PRICE GARUANTEE
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Not decided yet – but we are looking at:
Bundled storage and filling requirements
Benefit - No uncurtainty about payment for filling requirements when closing storage contacts.
Status - Work is ongoing with the TSO Long term contracts
Benefit - Average estimated price for a longer period beyond Tyra outages Status - We are still analyzing
OTHER PRODUCTS FOR SY 2019
NEGOTIATION ON
EMERGENCY STORAGE
Jeppe Danø
57
Market Director, Energinet Gas TSO
NEGOTIATIONS WITH GAS STORAGE DENMARK
• GSD has required a renegotiation of terms and conditions in the agreement on emergency storage (withdrawal and volume capacity) with Gas TSO
• Principle for pricing is shifted to cost plus for both withdrawal and volume capacity
• Legal opinion on the terms and pricing principle by law firm Horten
• Negotiations ongoing – still issues to be solved between parties
• Agreement and legal opinion expected to be finalised end September/beginning October 2018
• Result will then be presented to regulator (DUR) and published to market participants and consumers via Energinet homepage
Energinet Gas TSO and Gas Storage Denmark (GSD) have not yet concluded an
agreement on emergency storage for current storage year 2018/2019
QUESTIONS
email: jda@energinet.dk
FINAL REMARKS
Perspectives today
• Thomas Egebo on the gas market
• Your opinion on Energinet Gas TSO Shippers’ Forum on 13 December 2018
• ”Towards a new gas regulation 2020”, Jan Ingwersen, ENTSOG’s General Manager
THANK YOU
Next Shippers’ Forum 13 December 2018
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