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(1)

SHIPPERS’ FORUM

13 September 2018

(2)

PROGRAMME

12.00 Lunch and networking 13.00 Welcome

Clement Johan Ulrichsen, Energinet Gas TSO 13.15 Gas market developments

Thomas Egebo, Energinet 13.35 General Market Update

Signe Louise Rasmussen, Energinet Gas TSO 13.55 Interactive survey

Dorte Kristiansen, Energinet Gas TSO

14.55 Tyra redevelopment 2019-2022

PRISMA auction 2 July 2018 –Christian Rutherford, Energinet Gas TSO

Supply and demand without Tyra –Christian Meiniche Andersen, Energinet Gas TSO

Market measures –Christian Rutherford, Energinet Gas TSO

15.15 Tariff Projection Model

Jeppe Danø, Energinet Gas TSO 15.25 Gas Storage Denmark

Hans-Åge Nielsen, Gas Storage Denmark 15.40 Negotiation on Emergency Storage

Jeppe Danø, Energinet Gas TSO 15.50 Final remarks

14.25Coffeebreak and networking

(3)

WELCOME

Clement Johan Ulrichsen

Head of Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO

(4)

PROBABLY THE BEST BALANCING MODEL…

“Denmark provides an excellent example of an implementation built upon best practice taken from the more developed North-West European countries and further evolved thanks to a

continuous and inclusive stakeholder engagement” (page 50)

ACER report: Best practise balancing model in Denmark

1/4

(5)

5

HANDLING SYD ARNE GAS QUALITY

To secure North Sea volumes during Tyra Redevelopment

How Energinet expect to handle any Syd Arne gas quality deviations:

• Today: Blending with Tyra gas in Nybro

• Expectation for 2019-2022: Blending with Ellund gas in Egtved

Off-spec fee paid by Nybro shippers with off- spec gas

2/4

(6)

18.6 % BIOMETHANE IN GRID IN JULY 2018

Biomethane and other flow data available on Energinet’s Energi Data Service Link: energidataservice.dk/dataset/gasflow

3/4

(7)

TWO TENDERS COMING UP

• Deadline for bidding 3 October 2018, 12.00

• Tender by a pay-as-bid auction

• You will receive an invitation and a spread sheet for bidding

• If you have any questions, please contact noedforsyning@energinet.dk

• Deadline for bidding 2 October 2018, 12.00

• Energinet expects to purchase up to 110 GWh

• Tender by a pay-as-bid auction

• You will receive an invitation and a spread sheet for bidding

• If you have any questions, please contact noedforsyning@energinet.dk

1. Emergency gas 2. Individual filling requirements 4/4

(8)

QUESTIONS

email: cju@energinet.dk

(9)

GAS MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Thomas Egebo

CEO, Energinet

(10)

ENERGY ACROSS BORDERS

Joint Balancing Zone

Tyra

(11)

IN THE MIDDLE OF A MAJOR TRANSITION

11

(12)

STRONG POLITICAL WILL FOR GREEN GAS

PARIS 2050

Regulatory framework for competitive development of biogas and other green gasses

Possibilities for convertion and storage of electricity in gaseous forms

- Danish Energy Agreement 29th June 2018

Danish gas strategy Reform of EU gas regulation

“The future energy system must be based on several forms of energy”

”The gas sector must now prove that it is a part of the long term solution”

-Klaus Dieter Borchardt, director, DG Energy

(13)

13

THE VALUE CHAIN IS CHANGING

New market players

Decentralized gas production

Consolidation of gas distribution

New retail business models

(14)

TOGETHER TODAY AND ON FUTURE CHALLENGES

2019-2022 Paris 2050

100% GREEN GAS GRID IN 2050

Photograph: Maersk oil and gas, Tyra field Photograph: HyBalance, Electolyzer Photograph: NGF nature energy,, Holsted biogas plant

(15)

QUESTIONS

email: teg@energinet.dk

(16)

GENERAL MARKET UPDATE

Signe Louise Rasmussen

Economist, Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO

(17)

INTRODUCTION OF EDIG@S VERSION 5.1

17

Network code on interoperability and data exchange rules

To day

• Edig@s 4.0

1 October 2018

• Edig@s 4.0

• Edig@s 5.1

Testing

Shipperguide on Edig@s 5.1 will be published on website

• Contact

backoffice@energinet.dk 1/3

(18)

RULES FOR GAS TRANSPORT VERSION 18.0

The changes are:

• BNG Entry point will change name to RES Entry (Renewable Energy Sources)

• Introduction of single sided nomination at Ellund

• Underrun charge will be removed

• Other minor changes

Enter into force on 1 October 2018

Public consultation on 17 - 26 September

Anmodning@energinet.dk 2/3

(19)

JOINT BALANCING ZONE – METHOD APPROVAL

19

Deadline for market consultation

6 July 2018 Start of Energinet´s

market consultation 8 June 2018

Adjustments to methodology

document

Final methodology document sent to

DUR start August

Deadline of DUR´s public consultation 3 September 2018

3 comments received during Energinet´s consultation

0 comments received during Danish Utility Regulation´s (DUR) consultation

3/3

(20)

JOINT BALANCING ZONE – NEXT STEPS

Timeline

2018 2019

aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mar apr

Activity

JBZ goes live

01-04

Implementation Phase

13-09 19-09 Shippers’ Forum & Gasmarknadsråd

Sweden: Samråd om Balanceansvarsaftale Regulatory approval SE - Rules

Regulatory approval DK - Hearing Regulatory approval DK - Method

Tests DSO Sweden Tests BA/Shipper

3/3

(21)

QUESTIONS TO THE JOINT BALANCING ZONE

Do not hesitate to contact us at JBZ@swedegas.se

21

Or if you want to become a shipper in Sweden

3/3

(22)

QUESTIONS

email: slr@energinet.dk

(23)

INTERACTIVE SURVEY

Dorte Kristiansen

23

Senior Consultant, Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO

(24)

YOU SPEAK – WE LISTEN

Energinet’s reputation survey Your view on:

• Our daily service

• Our decisions

• Market involvement

Warm up = This Kahoot survey

Your honest opinion is appreciated

(25)

25

5 QUESTIONS

Link:

www.kahoot.it

Enter Game PIN Level of anonymity:

Choose your nickname wisely

(26)

COMMENTS

email: dgk@energinet.dk

(27)

TYRA REDEVELOPMENT

2019-2022

27

(28)

PRISMA AUCTION 2 JULY

Christian Rutherford

Chief Economist, Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO

(29)

29

LOW CAPACITY

BOOKING AT ELLUND

• Energinet: Advised shippers to book capacity during the Tyra shutdown period.

• Gasunie Deutschland: 1 GWh/h extra would only be built and added to Ellund, if booked.

• Result: Existing capacity was far from sold out.

• Capacity will not be established for Ellund:

but for Northern German market area.

Shippers booked less than expected

0,35

1 0,75

0,4 0

0,9

2 2,25

2,6

2,1

0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5

GWh/h

Annual auction July ‘18, Ellund DE (GUD) DK

Sold capacity Unsold capacity

(30)

CAPACITY OVERVIEW ELLUND ENTRY

Point/GY (in kWh/h)

Gas Year 2018 Gas year 2019 Gas Year 2020 Gas Year 2021 Gas Year 2022

Technical firm capacity (GUD & OGE)

4.2 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h

Total booked capacity (GUD

& OGE)

3.2 GWh/h 3.7 GWh/h 3.3 GWh/h 3 GWh/h -

Available capacity (GUD

& OGE)

1 GWh/h (only GUD)

1.4 GWh/h 1.8 GWh/h 2.1 GWh/h 5.1 GWh/h

After auction 2 July 2018 – bundled capacity without extra 1 GWh/h at GUD

(31)

QUESTIONS

email: cru@energinet.dk

(32)

SUPPLY AND DEMAND WITHOUT TYRA

Christian Meiniche Andersen

Head of Gas System Operations, Energinet Gas TSO

(33)

DANISH NORTH SEA 2017-2042, DEA AUGUST 2018

33

New forecast not incorporated

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042

BCM

Exploration reserves Technology reserves Proven reserves

Exploration reserves 2017 Technology reserves 2017 Proven reserves 2017

No news on the supply

situation 2019-2022

(34)

POSSIBLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2019

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

uar ruar arts pril Maj Juni Juli ust ber ber ber ber

Million m3

Storage injection Export Germany Sweden

Denmark

Storage withdrawel Import Germany Nybro

BNG

Tyra partly closing down Tyra closed

(35)

SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2019-2022

35

Described in August 2017

https://energinet.dk/Gas/Tyra/Forsyningsbilledet

Memorandum PowerPoint

(36)

WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE AUGUST 2017

1. The technical withdrawal capacity at the Lille Torup storage facility is being expanded in 2018 from 8 to 10 mcm/day to support the emergency supply capabilities of the overall system (N-1 incident). The necessary technical modifications at the plant are ongoing.

2. New Analysis preliminary Assumptions 2018 from the Danish Energy Agency in August 2018 with an expected decrease in Danish gas consumption 2018-2022.

3. Prisma Auction 2 July 2018 – limited bookings of entry capacity in Ellund

The supply situation seems improved. However the demand forecast is uncertain (closing of CHP plants)

The supply-situation depends on your bookings and utilization of storage capacity and

Ellund entry capacity

(37)

QUESTIONS

email: can@energinet.dk

(38)

MARKET MEASURES

Christian Rutherford

Chief Economist Gas Market Development, Energinet Gas TSO

(39)

39

STATUS METHOD APPROVAL – BALANCING (TYRA)

3 measures have been forwarded to DUR for approval:

1. Removal of price caps

2. New method for calculating adjustment step 2 3. New formula for imbalance prices in Emergency Status

• 0 responses to DUR market consultation

• 4 responses to Energinet market consultation – mainly addressing new formula for imbalance prices in Emergency

• Energinet response in appendix 1 of the application

Method application forwarded to DUR start July

(40)

TYRA – BUNDLED FILLING REQUIREMENTS

Reasoning for bundling filling requirements with storage volume

• Storage customers certain that Energinet Gas TSO will buy filling requirements when booking this storage capacity

• Increase options for buying and selling filling requirements for storage customers and Energinet Gas TSO

Next steps

• Energinet Gas TSO and Gas Storage Denmark is finalising concept

• Expected to be subject for method approval

• In any case, concept will be subject for market consultation

Joint concept between Energinet Gas TSO and Gas Storage Denmark

(41)

TYRA – OTHER MEASURES

1. Emergency Workshop

• New workshop expected in March 2019 2. Minimal Storage Filling

• Plan to implement graphical view towards May 2019 (beginning of storage year) 3. New secondary products at PRISMA

• Expected towards October 2019

4. Interruptible within-day capacity at Ellund

• Expected towards October 2019

41

Timeline for implementation – 4 measures

(42)

QUESTIONS

email: cru@energinet.dk

(43)

TARIFF PROJECTION MODEL

Jeppe Danø

43

Market Director, Energinet Gas TSO

(44)

PURPOSE OF A SIMPLIFIED TARIFF MODEL

Communicate updated budget forecasts.

Provide a transparent tariff forecast for the Tyra renovation period and the Baltic Pipe project.

Allow shippers and DUR an instrument to assess the impact of alternative cost allocation methodologies.

Enabling network users to reproduce the calculation of reference prices and their accurate forecast in compliance with TAR NC Art. 7 and Art. 30 2 (b): …a simplified tariff model, updated regularly, accompanied by the explanation of how to use it, enabling network users to calculate the transmission tariffs applicable for the prevailing tariff period and to estimate their possible evolution beyond such tariff period.

The forecasted tariffs as well as the cost and flow input are non-binding and intended for indicative purposes exclusively. Energinet will aim to update the model regularly.

Network users have requested a transparent overview of the tariff calculations and

methodologies. It is also a requirement of TAR NC

(45)

PROJECTION OF TARIFFS AND TRANSPORTATION COSTS

45

2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025

DKK/kWh

Gas year

Development in transportation costs

Entry Exit Flow Storage Total

Disclaimer: Indicative results from the model. The results could be adjusted for new input prior to being

published.

The model will show the expected development in capacity tariffs, flow tariffs and

average transportation costs

(46)

ADJUSTABLE ASSUMPTIONS

Scenario in use With Baltic Pipe

% change in simulation data

Unit 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025

CAPEX cost % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

OPEX cost % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Capacity % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Flow % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Green = adjustable cell

With Baltic Pipe

Without Baltic Pipe

Percentage adjustment in cost, capacity and flow assumptions

The user can adjust assumptions and discover the impact on expected tariffs

(47)

CALCULATION OF TOTAL TRANSPORTATION COSTS

Calculation of total transportation costs: shipper

Load factor Entry 0,82

Load factor Exit 0,79

Flow in kWh 40.000.000

Entry capacity booking in kWh/h/y 5.569 Exit capacity booking in kWh/h/y 5.780

Shippers cost of transportation based on flow and load factor assumption above

Unit 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Transportation cost, uniform DKK 428.361 450.039 471.268 284.073 266.053 255.813

Entry DKK 128.486 137.413 141.090 91.340 85.577 81.389

Exit DKK 133.366 142.631 146.448 94.809 88.827 84.480

Flow DKK 166.509 169.995 183.731 97.924 91.649 89.943

Transportation cost, uniform EUR 57.583 60.497 63.351 38.187 35.765 34.388

Year on year development % na 5% 5% -40% -6% -4%

47

The user can calculate his expected transportation costs given an expected flow and load factor

Adjustable load factor

Adjustable flow expectations

Disclaimer: Indicative results from the model. The results could be adjusted for new input prior to being published.

(48)

QUESTIONS

email: jda@energinet.dk

(49)

SHIPPERS FORUM

Hans-Åge Nielsen

BALLERUP 14TH SEPTEMBER 2018

(50)

Latest Gas Market Messages concerning storage

New interruptible tariffs for SY-18

Storage capacities SY-19

Variable injection tariff for SY-19

FCFS with price garuantee

Other products for SY-19

AGENDA

(51)

GMM 24thApril: 310 GWh reduction on volume capacity caused by prolonged maintenance of the caverns.

GMM 4th September: Update – the reduction is reduced with 75 GWh. The capacity is for sale. This is based on new calculations on calorific value.

GAS MARKET MESSAGES – VOLUME CAPACITY SY18

51

(52)

NEW INTERRUPTIBLE TARIFFS

(53)

Difference between gas from Tyra and Germany reduces the volume capacity in SY 19 with app. 750 GWh.

Less calorific value

Less compressibility (Z-factor)

Total capacity in 2018: 10,421 GWh

Total capacity in 2019: 9,682 GWh

CAPACITIES FOR SY 2019

53

German gas 2,0 MWh/m3stored

at 150 barg 15 °C

Danish gas 2,4 MWh/m3stored

at 150 barg 15 °C

(54)

The variable injection tariff will rise in SY-19 due to:

• Higher energy prices

• Lower calorific value

• Lower Z-factor

The new tariff for injection will be 0,00223 DKK/kWh or approx. 0,3 €/MWh

For SY-18 it is 0,00173 DKK/kWh

VARIABLE INJECTION TARIFF SY-19

(55)

FCFS prices for SY 2019, 2020 and 2021:

2,6 €/MWh/year for 170/170 days SBU 3,3 €/MWh/year for 170/85 days SBU 4,0 €/MWh/year for 120/60 days SBU Injection: 750 €/MW/year Withdrawal: 3,000 €/MW/year Price garuantee:

GSD guarantees that the prices notified above are the best prices for corresponding SBU-product or for any other derived SBU-product, sold on auction or FCFS conducted by GSD in the period

from today 24 August 2018 to 30 April 2019

FCFS WITH PRICE GARUANTEE

55

(56)

Not decided yet – but we are looking at:

Bundled storage and filling requirements

Benefit - No uncurtainty about payment for filling requirements when closing storage contacts.

Status - Work is ongoing with the TSO Long term contracts

Benefit - Average estimated price for a longer period beyond Tyra outages Status - We are still analyzing

OTHER PRODUCTS FOR SY 2019

(57)

NEGOTIATION ON

EMERGENCY STORAGE

Jeppe Danø

57

Market Director, Energinet Gas TSO

(58)

NEGOTIATIONS WITH GAS STORAGE DENMARK

• GSD has required a renegotiation of terms and conditions in the agreement on emergency storage (withdrawal and volume capacity) with Gas TSO

• Principle for pricing is shifted to cost plus for both withdrawal and volume capacity

• Legal opinion on the terms and pricing principle by law firm Horten

• Negotiations ongoing – still issues to be solved between parties

• Agreement and legal opinion expected to be finalised end September/beginning October 2018

• Result will then be presented to regulator (DUR) and published to market participants and consumers via Energinet homepage

Energinet Gas TSO and Gas Storage Denmark (GSD) have not yet concluded an

agreement on emergency storage for current storage year 2018/2019

(59)

QUESTIONS

email: jda@energinet.dk

(60)

FINAL REMARKS

Perspectives today

• Thomas Egebo on the gas market

• Your opinion on Energinet Gas TSO Shippers’ Forum on 13 December 2018

• ”Towards a new gas regulation 2020”, Jan Ingwersen, ENTSOG’s General Manager

(61)

THANK YOU

Next Shippers’ Forum 13 December 2018

61

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