Fremtidens vejgodstransporterhverv
Aalborg Trafikdage 28. august 2018
FORMÅLET
Stille skarpt på fremtidens godstransporterhverv
• Hvordan vil erhvervet udvikle sig frem mod 2030?
• Hvilke centrale påvirkningstendenser vil vi se?
• Hvilke muligheder og udfordringer skaber de nye og ændrede rammevilkår?
• Hvordan kan virksomhederne imødegå fremtidige udfordringer?
PROGRAM
1. Udfordringsbilledet (Mads Røddik Christensen, ITD)
2. Management og logistik (Jan Stentoft, SDU) 3. Ny teknologi og digitalisering (Jørn-Henrik
Carstens, ITD)
NYE RAMMEVILKÅR
• Mangel på kvalificeret arbejdskraft
• Øget pres på infrastrukturen
• Et udfordret EU
• Ændrede globale handelsmønstre
ØGEDE FORVENTNINGER TIL ERHVERVET
• Fokus på bæredygtighed
• Øgede krav om transparens
• Stigende forventninger til serviceniveau
NYE FORRETNINGSFORMER
• Platformsmodeller
• Nye aktører på banen
TRANSFORMERENDE TEKNOLOGIER
• Alternative drivmidler
• Alternative transportformer
• Selvkørende vejgodstransport
• Digital logistik
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
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Supply Chain Management og Logistik: Tendenser
Department of Entrepreneurship and Relationship Management
Jan Stentoft
stentoft@sam.sdu.dk
Nogle tendenser
• VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity)
• Produktion sker tættere på slutbrugerne
• Bæredygtighed vinder ind i transportbranchen (de store)
• Hurtig udvikling i nye logistiske IT løsninger (sporing, gennemsigtighed)
• Nye samarbejdsformer og nye aktører
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Verden er blevet ”mindre”
10
SCM behovspyramide
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Supply Chain Transparency Demand Management
Order Fulfillment
Customer Relationship Management R&D Management
Manufacturing Management Supplier Relationship Management
Sourcing Management Return Management
Information Systems Performance Management
Shareholder Value
Supply Chain Organization &
Competency
Supply Chain Network Structure
Master Management Data
The founding level
Enabling level Result level
Process level
Kilde: Stentoft et al. (2018)
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Digitalisering i tre niveauer
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Kilde: Brinch & Stentoft (2017)
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
En forståelse af Industri 4,0
Industri 4,0 er også betegnet den 4. industrielle revolution. Industri 4,0 er karakteriseret ved stigende automation specielt gennem integration af den digitale verden og den fysiske produktion
(Cyper-Physical Systems). Det handler om at kombinere
teknologier, forbinde produkter og værdikæder i integrerede digitale systemer.
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DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
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Augmented reality
Advanced materials
iBin
3D scanning
3D printing
Robots
• ERP
• Advanced censors / IoT
• Remote control
• Mobile internet
• Internet of Things
• Big data
• Cloud
• Simulation
• Automatic analysis and visualization of data
• Digital communication
• Artificial intelligence Materials and Manufacturing
Smart Technologies Connectivity Smart Technologies Computing and Big Data
Industry 4.0: Nogle teknologier
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Den digitale virksomhed
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Digital customer and channel management Digital
workplace
Digital Engineering and
manufacturing
Digital supply chain
Digital products, services, and business models
Vertical integration
Big data process optimization
Predictive maintenance
Condition monitoring
Augmented reality
Integrated digital engineering
Digital factory
B2B2C customer integration
Digital customer experience
Omnichannel sales integration
Omnichannel marketing
Point-of-sale- driven
replenishment
Micro deliveries
Customer life-time value
management
E-finance
Digital HR
Internal
knowledge sharing
Integrated planning and execution
Logistics visibility
Procurement 4.0
Smart warehousing
Efficient spare parts
management
Autonomous and B2C logistics
Prescriptive supply chain analytics
Digitally enhanced products
Intelligent and connected products and solutions
Automated and data-based services
Digital business models
Kilde: Strategy & Analysis (2016)
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Procurement 4.0
1. New procurement value proposition (procurement as service provider to key suppliers and customers; monetization of field application data with suppliers)
2. Digital category and service procurement (new categories e.g., software, hardware, new services; innovative contracting of services; technologies, markets, suppliers) 3. Digital supply chain and supplier management (supplier risk management and key
performance indicators; integrated supply chain; supplier co-creation; differentiated supply chains)
4. Innovative procurement data utilization (big data analytics; predictive market and supplier analysis; field application data analysis to improve design and performance) 5. Digital processes and tools (digitization of purchase-to-pay process; business process
outsourcing and shared-services center; digital tools and interfaces; procurement IT architecture)
6. Organization and capabilities (digital skills and talents; experts for new categories;
digital culture and transparency; new media partners ion hiring)
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DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Logistik 4,0
1. A physical supply chain dimension with
autonomous and self-controlled logistics sub systems like transport (e.g. via autonomous trucks), turnover handlings (e.g. via trailer unloading or piece picking robots) or order processing (e.g. via smart contracts on the
blockchain technology) are interacting among each other.
2. A digital data value chain dimension where machine and sensor data are collected at the level of the “physical thing” along the entire
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Kilde: Hofmann & Rüsch (2017)
En SMART fabrik er TOF 3
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IoT
SMART mobile
SMART buildings SMART factory SMART logistics
SMART grid
SMART service IoT
• Transparent
• Optimeret
• Forbundet
• Fleksibel
• Forebyggende
Industri 4,0
Department of Entrepreneurship
and Relationship Management
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Relevans og anvendelse: SMV’er
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1,3 1,4 1,4
1,7 1,8 1,8
2,0 2,1 2,1
2,7 3,0
3,1
1,5 1,8
1,9 2,2 2,2 2,2
2,4 2,4 2,4
2,9 3,0
3,1
1 2 3 4 5
Augmented Reality (virtualitet fx VR-briller) Radio-frequency identification (RFID) & Real-time locating system (RTLS) teknologier Kunstig intelligens Autonome robotter Internet of Things (IoT gør elektroniske apparater intelligente, så de kan opsamle data, der
bliver omsat til værdifuld viden for forbrugeren eller virksomheden)
Big data og analytics Additive manufacturing (fx. 3D print) Simulering Horisontal og vertikal integration (af virksomhedens værdikæde ved hjælp af data og online
kommunikation)
Mobile teknologier The cloud (datalagring og systemer i skyen)
Cyber-security (IT-sikkerhed)
Relevans Anvender
Kilde. Stentoft et al. (2018)
Drivkræfter og barrierer
Department of Entrepreneurship
and Relationship Management
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Drivkræfter
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1,8
2,4 2,4
2,6 2,6 2,6
2,9 3,0
1 2 3 4 5
Arbejde igangsat med input fra offentligt rådgiversystem (væksthuskonsulenter, lokale erhvervskontorer)
Mangel på kvalificeret arbejdskraft Lovkrav/ændret lovgivning Konkurrenter arbejder med det Vores bevidste strategi på området Kundekrav For at skabe hurtigere time-to-market For at reducere omkostninger
Kilde. Stentoft et al. (2018)
Mangel på strategisk tænkning
på dette område
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Barrierer
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1,7
2,2 2,3
2,4 2,4
2,5 2,5
2,7 2,7
2,9 3,1
3,4
1 2 3 4 5
Vi står foran et generationsskifte Mangel på databeskyttelse (cyber sikkerhed) Manglende medarbejderparathed Mangel på standarder Manglende forståelse af samspillet mellem teknologi og mennesker Mangel på kvalificeret arbejdskraft Manglende forståelse af den strategiske vigtighed af nye digitale teknologier For få finansielle ressourcer Kræver efteruddannelse af medarbejdere Manglende viden i huset For få menneskelige ressourcer (man power) Vi har mere fokus på drift end på udvikling af virksomheden
Kilde. Stentoft et al. (2018)
Mere fokus på drift end udvikling; for få ressourcer; manglede viden
Manglende ”sult” er en stor barriere for innovation!
Parathed til industri 4,0
Department of Entrepreneurship
and Relationship Management
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Industri 4,0 parathed
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Kilde: Stentoft et al. (2017)
Jo større virksomhed, målt i antal ansatte,
jo større opfattet parathed
Strategisk erkendelse
Department of Entrepreneurship
and Relationship Management
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
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Strategisk erkendelse: Selvopfattelser
Gns: 3,83 Gns: 3,95
Gns: 3,68 Gns: 3,86
Kilde: Stentoft et al. (2017)
Dilemma: Drift kontra udvikling
Department of Entrepreneurship
and Relationship Management
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Drift kontra udvikling
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Udvikling Drift
Kilde: Stentoft et al. (2017)
DEPARTMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Sammenfatning
Procesanalyse før teknologi
Forstå virksomheden
Facts, facts, facts
Forretningsmodel og value propositions
Kortlægning af systemer, projekter og produkter
7 June 2017