Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?

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Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?

Nielsen, Lars Henrik

Publication date:

2011

Document Version

Også kaldet Forlagets PDF

Link back to DTU Orbit

Citation (APA):

Nielsen, L. H. (Forfatter). (2011). Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?.

Lyd og/eller billed produktion (digital)

(2)

El til Vej-transport

Fleksible El-systemer og Vindkraft WORKSHOP

8. marts 2011 kl. 13.30 - 16.30 hos Dansk Energi Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport:

Energi

CO ₂ emission økonomi ?

Lars Henrik Nielsen

SYS Risø DTU

(3)

Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

Content

The project in short.

EV- technology & EV- scenarios

• Energy substitution

• CO ₂ emission consequences

• Socio-economy / cost of ownership (marginal partial analyses)

Some conclusions

Basis for further analyses on

• overall power system aspects

• power transmission aspects

• power distribution aspects

13-aug-2008 Præsentationens titel

2

(4)

The Project:

El til Vejtransport, Fleksible El-systemer og Vindkraft.

EFP07-II Journal nr. 33033 – 0218

Hovedsponsor: EFP07-II Deltagere:

Forskningscenter Risø, DTU: SYS, VEA ØRSTED, DTU: CET

RAM-løse edb EnergiNet.dk Dansk Energi Overordnet mål:

Analyse af mulige samspil mellem

• el- og kraftvarmesektoren og

• transportsektoren,

dersom dele af vej-transporten baseres

• ’plug in’ hybrid- og/eller elbil-teknologi.

3

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Content

1) EV- technology (assumptions)

• Energy substitution

• CO ₂ emission consequences

• Socio-economy / cost of ownership (marginal partial analyses)

2) EV- scenarios (based on EPRI scenario) Some conclusions

4

(6)

Vehicles: Passenger cars and LDV < 3.5 ton

The expected ‘close to average’ fleet passenger vehicles defined in versions of:

Reference: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) Alternative: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) (All-electric)

Vehicle data:

Ref.: COWI (2007), EPRI (2007), IEA (2009), DOE (2010)

13-aug-2008 5

(7)

Links assumed:

(among defined fleet average vehicles)

• PHEVs operated in HEV-mode have the same specific energy (gasoline/diesel) consumption as the defined HEV vehicle.

• PHEVs operated in BEV-mode (or charge depletion mode) have the same specific energy consumption (electricity) as the defined BEV vehicle.

• HEV fuel consumption equal to 65% of the ICEV within a vintage group.

13-aug-2008 6

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Vehicle energy consumption: kWh/km

7

ICEV fuel consumption: HEV fuel consumption:

PHEV electricity and fuel consumption: BEV electricity consumption:

(9)

Vehicle energy consumption: km/liter

8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Energy consumption per vehicle km (Gas/diesel). [km/liter]

Registration period

Specific energy consumption for fleet average ICEV,HEV & PHEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative

PHEV in HEV mode (Gas)

HEV

ICEV

(10)

Electric Vehicle:

Battery size and range per charge

13-aug-2008 9

PHEV & BEV: Range [km/charge] PHEV & BEV: Battery size [kWh/pack]

(11)

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV):

% of annual driving on electricity in DK ?

10

Source: Estimated (Weibull) distribution based on data from DTU Transport: ‘Transport Vane

Undersøgelse: 2006+2007’.

(12)

Vehicle specific CO ₂ emission: g CO ₂ /km

CO ₂ Case I : Marginal el-production in DK (coal) Source: DEA (2010)

11

ICEV CO

₂

emission: HEV CO

₂

emission:

PHEV CO

₂

emission: CO

₂

Case I BEV CO

₂

emission: CO

₂

Case I

(13)

Electric Vehicle: PHEV and BEV Battery cost and lifetime

13-aug-2008 12

Assumptions:

BatCost I : EV battery cost development scenario based on ref.: COWI (2007) & IEA (2009)

BatCost II: EV battery cost development scenario based on ref.: USDOE, The Recovery Act : Transforming America’s Transportation Sector, Batteries and Electric Vehicles, July 14, 2010.

Cost: $/kWh battery Lifetime: Years

(14)

Vehicle cost of ownership: $/year

EV battery cost: USDOE July 2010 Scenario

13-aug-2008 13

ICEV: HEV:

PHEV: BatCost II , US DOE 2010 scenario BEV: BatCost II, US DOE 2010 Scenario

(15)

Relative cost of ownership: ( ^$/year )/( ^$/year ) BEV, PHEV, HEV / ICEV

13-aug-2008 14

BatCost I : DK DEA 2010 scenario BatCost II: US DOE 2010 Scenario

(16)

Conclusion: Individual EVs

Energy & CO ₂ emission

Energy:

• Electricity substitutes gasoline/diesel via the EV.

• EV drive trains have potential for being very energy efficient.

• 3000 kWh electricity may sustain about 20.000 km average vehicle driving.

• Via EVs segments of the transport sector can diversify its energy resource base and reduce dependency on oil based fuels.

CO

₂

emission:

• EV CO

₂

emission relates to the power supply system charging the vehicles. The EV footprint of the individual vehicle change in accordance with the power supply.

• According to the Danish ‘reference’ development for the marginal power supply EVs bring almost insignificant CO

₂

reduction (due to coal dominated marginal power

production). However, assuming linear descend to zero CO

₂

emission in 2050 for the power supply substantial CO

₂

reduction is achieved via EVs substituting ICEVs. Ultimately EVs may provide zero CO

₂

emission road transport.

• The individual ICEV of today may emit about 2-3 ton CO

₂

/year. This equals max achievable EV CO

₂

reduction.

(17)

Conclusion: Individual EVs

Economy:

• Cost and lifetime of EV batteries much determine the EV economy.

Based on (marginal and partial) socio-economic costs of ownership.

• In ‘reference’ battery cost development PHEVs may get break-even with the ICEV beyond year 2020.

• In ‘alternative’ battery cost development PHEVs may get break-even with the ICEV year 2015.

• CO ₂ emission allowance costs of 2-3 ton CO ₂ are small put relative to costs of vehicle ownership. May not constitute incentive for vehicle purchase.

16

(18)

Danish fleet:

Vehicle/fleet renewal

Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t

17

(19)

Danish fleet:

PHEV Scenario:

Market share & fleet development ^{(# PHEVs)}

Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t

18

PHEV Market share PHEV: Fleet development

(20)

Danish fleet:

PHEV Scenario:

Energy substitution (TWh/year (fuel or el.))

Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t

19

(21)

Danish fleet:

PHEV Scenario:

CO ₂ emission (1000 ton CO ₂ /year)

Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t

20

CO

₂

Case I : Marginal (coal based) power supply (DK DEA 2010)

(22)

Danish fleet:

PHEV Scenario:

Socio-economic costs of ownership (Mio.$ /year) (marginal & partial analysis)

21

BatCost I : Reference BatCost II : US DOE 2010

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Conclusion: PHEV (& BEV) scenario

Energy & CO ₂ emission

Energy:

• Electricity substitutes gasoline/diesel via the PHEV and BEV scenarios.

Focusing on year 2030:

o PHEV scenario year 2030:

ICEV Fuel (gasoline/diesel) substituted: - About 9.0 TWh _fuel /year PHEV fleet electricity consumption: + About 2.5 TWh electricity o BEV scenario year 2030:

Fuel (gasoline/diesel) substituted: About 5.4 TWh _fuel /year.

Corresponding BEV fleet electricity consumption: About 1.7 TWh electricity.

The numbers reflect the relative very high energy efficiency of EV drive trains.

• EVs in the transport sector can diversify energy resource base and reduce dependency on oil based fuels.

CO

₂

emission:

• The EV scenario CO

₂

emission depends on the power supply system charging the EV fleet.

(24)

Conclusion: PHEV (& BEV) scenario

Economy: Based on (marginal and partial) socio-economic analysis.

Economy:

• Cost and lifetime of EV batteries much determine the EV economy and outcome of the PHEV and BEV scenarios.

• In a ‘reference’ battery cost development the PHEV scenario is close to break-even with reference development. Beyond year 2025 annual socio- economic gains emerge.

The BEV scenario, however, show annual deficits throughout the period, though relatively smaller later in the period.

• In an ‘alternative’ battery cost development (US DOE 2010) the PHEV

scenario is attractive from year 2015 and throughout the period. The BEV scenario becomes cost effective from beyond year 2020.

• CO ₂ emission allowance costs are small put relative to costs of vehicle ownership and the scenario costs.

23

Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?

Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?

2011

Også kaldet Forlagets PDF

Nielsen, L. H. (Forfatter). (2011). Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?.

Lyd og/eller billed produktion (digital)

El til Vej-transport

Fleksible El-systemer og Vindkraft WORKSHOP

8. marts 2011 kl. 13.30 - 16.30 hos Dansk Energi Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport:

Energi

CO 2 emission økonomi ?

Lars Henrik Nielsen

SYS Risø DTU

Content

The project in short.

EV- technology & EV- scenarios

• Energy substitution

• CO 2 emission consequences

• Socio-economy / cost of ownership (marginal partial analyses)

Some conclusions

Basis for further analyses on

• overall power system aspects

• power transmission aspects

• power distribution aspects

The Project:

El til Vejtransport, Fleksible El-systemer og Vindkraft.

EFP07-II Journal nr. 33033 – 0218

Hovedsponsor: EFP07-II Deltagere:

Forskningscenter Risø, DTU: SYS, VEA ØRSTED, DTU: CET

RAM-løse edb EnergiNet.dk Dansk Energi Overordnet mål:

Analyse af mulige samspil mellem

• el- og kraftvarmesektoren og

• transportsektoren,

dersom dele af vej-transporten baseres

• ’plug in’ hybrid- og/eller elbil-teknologi.

Content

1) EV- technology (assumptions)

• Energy substitution

• CO 2 emission consequences

• Socio-economy / cost of ownership (marginal partial analyses)

2) EV- scenarios (based on EPRI scenario) Some conclusions

Vehicles: Passenger cars and LDV < 3.5 ton

The expected ‘close to average’ fleet passenger vehicles defined in versions of:

Reference: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) Alternative: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) (All-electric)

Vehicle data:

Ref.: COWI (2007), EPRI (2007), IEA (2009), DOE (2010)

Links assumed:

(among defined fleet average vehicles)

• PHEVs operated in HEV-mode have the same specific energy (gasoline/diesel) consumption as the defined HEV vehicle.

• PHEVs operated in BEV-mode (or charge depletion mode) have the same specific energy consumption (electricity) as the defined BEV vehicle.

• HEV fuel consumption equal to 65% of the ICEV within a vintage group.

Vehicle energy consumption: kWh/km

ICEV fuel consumption: HEV fuel consumption:

PHEV electricity and fuel consumption: BEV electricity consumption:

Vehicle energy consumption: km/liter

Electric Vehicle:

Battery size and range per charge

PHEV & BEV: Range [km/charge] PHEV & BEV: Battery size [kWh/pack]

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV):

% of annual driving on electricity in DK ?

Source: Estimated (Weibull) distribution based on data from DTU Transport: ‘Transport Vane

Undersøgelse: 2006+2007’.

Vehicle specific CO 2 emission: g CO 2 /km

CO 2 Case I : Marginal el-production in DK (coal) Source: DEA (2010)

ICEV CO

emission: HEV CO

emission:

PHEV CO

emission: CO

Case I BEV CO

emission: CO

Case I

Electric Vehicle: PHEV and BEV Battery cost and lifetime

Assumptions:

BatCost I : EV battery cost development scenario based on ref.: COWI (2007) & IEA (2009)

BatCost II: EV battery cost development scenario based on ref.: USDOE, The Recovery Act : Transforming America’s Transportation Sector, Batteries and Electric Vehicles, July 14, 2010.

Cost: $/kWh battery Lifetime: Years

Vehicle cost of ownership: $/year

CO ₂ emission økonomi ?

• CO ₂ emission consequences

• CO ₂ emission consequences

Vehicle specific CO ₂ emission: g CO ₂ /km

CO ₂ Case I : Marginal el-production in DK (coal) Source: DEA (2010)

Relative cost of ownership: ( ^$/year )/( ^$/year ) BEV, PHEV, HEV / ICEV

Energy & CO ₂ emission

• CO ₂ emission allowance costs of 2-3 ton CO ₂ are small put relative to costs of vehicle ownership. May not constitute incentive for vehicle purchase.

Market share & fleet development ^{(# PHEVs)}

CO ₂ emission (1000 ton CO ₂ /year)

Energy & CO ₂ emission

ICEV Fuel (gasoline/diesel) substituted: - About 9.0 TWh _fuel /year PHEV fleet electricity consumption: + About 2.5 TWh electricity o BEV scenario year 2030:

Fuel (gasoline/diesel) substituted: About 5.4 TWh _fuel /year.