Technological development and renewable energy scenarios in CEESA

The aim of the CEESA project was to design a relevant scenario for transforming the present energy system based mainly on fossil fuels into a 100% renewable energy system by year 2050. The results of the CEESA project are used as the basis of the analyses in this project. The design of such a scenario is highly dependent on the technologies which are assumed to be available within the chosen time horizon. To highlight this issue, the CEESA project has identified the following initial scenarios based on three different assumptions with regard to the available technologies:

CEESA-2050 Conservative: The conservative scenario is created using mostly known technologies and technologies which are available today. This scenario assumes that the current market can develop and improve existing technologies. In this scenario, the costs of undeveloped renewable energy technologies are high. Very little effort is made to push the technological development of new renewable energy technologies in Denmark or at a global level. However, the scenario does include certain energy efficiency improvements of existing technologies, such as improved electricity efficiencies of power plants, more efficient cars, trucks and planes, and better wind turbines.

Moreover, the scenario assumes further technological developments of electric cars, hybrid vehicles, and bio-DME/methanol production technology (including biomass gasification technology).

CEESA-2050 Ideal: In the ideal scenario, technologies which are still in the development phase are included on a larger scale. The costs of

7 undeveloped renewable energy technologies are

low, due to significant efforts to develop, demonstrate and create markets for new technologies. For example, the ideal scenario assumes that fuel cells are available for power plants, and biomass conversion technologies (such as gasification) are available for most biomass types and on different scales. Co-electrolysis is also developed and the transport sector moves further towards electrification compared to the conservative scenario, e.g., by using only DME/methanol electrofuel in the parts of transport that cannot be covered with electric vehicles.

CEESA-2050 Recommendable: This scenario is a

“realistic and recommendable” scenario based on a balanced assessment of realistic and achievable technology improvements. It is used to complete a number of more detailed analyses in the project, including the implementation strategy, as well as in a number of sensitivity analyses. Here, however, less co-electrolysis is used and a balance is implemented between bio-electrofuels (DME/methanol) and CO2 electrofuels (DME/methanol) in the transport sector. This is the main CEESA scenario.

The Conservative and Ideal scenarios are used to illustrate that different technological developments will have different effects on the extent of the use of biomass resources, as well as the requirements for flexibility and Smart Energy System solutions. In the CEESA scenarios, the Smart Energy System integration is crucial. The scenarios rely on a holistic Smart Energy System including the use of: heat storages and district heating with CHP plants and large heat pumps, new electricity demands from large heat pumps and electric vehicles as storage options, electrolysers and liquid fuel for the transport sector, and enabling storage as liquids as well as gas storage.

All the above three technology scenarios are designed in a way in which renewable energy sources, such as wind power and PV, have been prioritized. Moreover, they are all based on decreases in the demand for electricity and heat as well as medium increases in transport demands. Consequently, none of the scenarios can be implemented without an active energy and transport policy. However, sensitivity analyses are conducted in terms of both a high energy demand scenario and the unsuccessful implementation of energy saving measures. These analyses point in the direction of higher costs, higher biomass consumption and/or an increased demand for wind turbines.

The reference scenario used in the current project is developed in connection to the CEESA project.

The reference scenario of 2010 reflects the actual Danish energy system in 2010 based on statistical data from this year. The following years in the reference scenario, 2020, 2030 and 2050, have been defined to reflect a business-as-usual development only including the adopted policies from 2010. The purpose of this reference scenario is to show how the system will develop and look like if no new initiatives are implemented and if only traditional measures are applied. This is therefore not seen as a realistic development of the system, but rather as a base for assessing and understanding the changes that should take place in the development towards a 100% renewable energy system as suggested in the CEESA scenarios.

The scenario developed in CEESA is only a snapshot in time and will be subject to repeated improvements as further research is carried out. It is based on existing knowledge and potential developments into scenarios for the year 2050 based on many different aspects of the energy system including technology development, renewable resources, fuel prices, CO2 prices, and investment costs.

8 The current primary energy supply in Denmark

(fuel consumption and renewable energy production of electricity and heat for households, transport and industry) is approximately 850 PJ, taking into account the boundary conditions applied to transport in this study, in which all transport is accounted for, i.e., national/international demands and both for passengers and freight. If new initiatives are not taken, the energy consumption is expected to decrease marginally until 2020, but then increase gradually until 2050. The measures of energy savings, transport as well as renewable energy and system integration between the electricity, heat, transport and gas sectors can reduce the primary energy supply to approximately 670 PJ in CEESA 2020 and approximately 470 PJ in CEESA 2050. At the same time, the share of renewable energy from wind turbines, photovoltaic, solar thermal, and wave energy, as well as biomass will be increased. The share of renewable energy in the

recommended energy system increases from about 20% in 2010 to 42% in 2020 and to about 65% in 2030. If the oil and gas consumption in refineries and for the extraction of oil in the North Sea is excluded, the share of renewable energy in the 2030 energy system is 73%. Coal is phased out before 2030. In 2050, the entire Danish energy system (incl. transport) is based on 100%

renewable energy [14]. The primary energy supply is illustrated in Figure 12.

In addition to a transition from a fossil based energy system, the CEESA scenarios are able to show that 100% renewable energy is technically possible, since all scenarios are analysed on an hour-by-hour basis. Furthermore, the 100%

renewable energy system has similar or lower costs than current fossil based energy systems and at the same time creates more jobs, causes fewer health related problems due to emissions, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

Figure 12: Primary energy supply of a Reference scenario for 2010 and the CEESA Recommendable 2020, 2030, 2050 scenarios divided into the different sources of energy.

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3 Profiling the Copenhagen