12. Conclusion
12.1 Further research
In writing the thesis, the authors encountered several questions and uncertainties that represents interesting topics for further research.
One factor that has been left relatively unexploited is the electricity production in the Renewable Energy segment, and its sensitivity to wind speeds and weather. The lack of information on output from Bonheurs owned wind parks makes such an analysis hard to conduct without privileged information. However, one could imagine a model building approach collecting historical wind data from their locations, historical prices for electricity sold and subsidies received, in relation to the segment’s profits. This data could potentially be better at forecasting future income then simply looking at historical income, if sufficient and correct data is included. A simpler analysis of electricity prices and power generation could alter some of the estimations in the thesis, giving a more precise estimation on expected revenue in the segment. Although the topic could be researched further, limitations on available data, especially amounts of electricity sold in the respective markets, would make correct estimations difficult to produce.
Following Bonheurs diversified business operations, the question of the separate value of the entities arose over the course of writing this thesis. Some examples of success on the Oslo Stock Exchange are present over the last years. During 2020, the industrial conglomerate AKER Solutions spun out two subsidiaries with operations in renewable energy (Njøsen & Horntvedt, 2020). Financial media outlets reported the spin outs as successful, yielding great returns to AKER Solutions’ shareholders (Ibid.). Researching the potential of a similar strategy for Bonheur and the effects on shareholder value would be interesting, especially if Bonheur’s shares indeed trade at a discount due to the conglomerate structure. This could affectively help answer another unanswered question, namely the exact conglomerate discount demanded by investors. Researchers argue for variable amounts, from 0 to 15%. Ex-post analysis has been conducted on several stock exchanges, with varying results. There seems to be a lack of a consistent framework for determining the exact conglomerate discount. Answering the question of individual segment value for Bonheur, could be effective in answering what the implied discount is for Bonheur.
Page 116 of 148 Regarding the methodology of the thesis, a more comprehensive analysis of the Cruise and Other Investment segments could have been conducted. The implications of coronavirus have been extensive in the cruise industry, and further research regarding the expected return to “the new normal” could potentially alter some of our estimations. In terms of internal analyses, the lack of transparent information from the company made it difficult to perform accurate internal analyses with theoretical frameworks such as a VRIN/VRIO or Porters’ Value Chain.
As a final remark, it should be noted that after the cut-off date, Bonheur released their Annual Report of 2020. For the first time, the annual report included an ESG report, bringing forward new and more comprehensive information of value and potential impact on the thesis.
Page 117 of 148
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