Figure 6-2 Employment effect shown for each phase
The estimated FTE in Table 6-5 are as expected high compared to the FTE referenced in section 2.7. As commented in section 2.7 this is expected as the employment induction coefficients in Korea are 3 times higher than the Danish coefficients.
Gunsan Port Mokpo Port OWF (500 MW) O&M (25 years)
FTE
Employment Effects
Direct FTE Indirect FTE
Direct FTE Indirect FTE Total FTE
Gunsan Port
1,788 1,432 3,220
Mokpo Port
943 755 1,698
OWF of 500 MW
14,303 11,452 25,755
O&M of 500 MW OWF
(Yearly)
168 189 357
O&M of 500 MW OWF
(25 years)
4,195 4,734 8,929
Table 6-5 Global Employment Effect
Table 6-6 below, combines Table 6-5 and Table 6-3 to provide an estimated of the local content, i.e. the expected FTE in Korea from the investment.
Direct FTE Indirect FTE Total FTE
Gunsan Port
1,788 1,432 3,220
Mokpo Port
943 755 1,698
OWF of 500 MW
12,873 10,307 23,180
O&M of 500 MW OWF
(Yearly)
159 180 339
O&M of 500 MW OWF
(25 years)
3,986 4,497 8,483
Table 6-6 Local Employment Effect
The estimated FTE in Table 6-5 and Table 6-6 are very high in a Danish context, which is due to the difference in the employment induction coefficients
mentioned in section 2.7.
6.4 Summary
With the expected investments in the construction of the Gunsan port, the Mokpo port, a 500 MW OWF and the O&M of the 500 MW OWF, it is expected to have a positive impact on the GDP and employment in Korea. The investments, O&M costs and total local employment effects are highlighted in Table 6-7.
CAPEX Total local
employment effect
Gunsan Port construction USD 196.3 million
3,220 FTE
Mokpo Port construction USD 103.5 million
1,698 FTE
Construction of a 500 MW OWF
USD 1,750 million
(USD 3.14 million/MW)
23,180 FTE
O&M of a 500 MW OWF (yearly)
USD 28.5 million/year (USD 0.057
million/MW/year)
339 FTE
O&M of 500 MW OWF (25 years)
USD 712,5 million
8,483 FTE
Table 6-7 Summary table of investments and local employment effects
In the short term, the GDP and employment effects are expected to be linear, e.g. a doubling in investment will double the impact on GDP and employment.
However, a consistent and sustained pipeline of OWF projects in Korea will lead to efficiency gains and cost reductions such that OWF construction and O&M of the OWF requires less FTE in the future.
As the OWF pipeline and the installed capacity in Korea grows, COWI expects the share of local content to grow. As more local knowledge and expertise is accumulated, there will be less need for international support for the development and construction projects. It will be difficult to say whether the decrease in the employment effect due to technological development or the increase in the local share will have the biggest impact, and what the overall effect will look like.
In terms of recommendations for designing the optimal pipeline, it is recommended to aim for a stable pipeline rather than a fast and immediate growth. If the pipeline is kept stable, the sector will also remain in work and the slow growth will have a more long-term effect on the economy, rather than a temporary effect of quick growth which then afterwards leaves the sector unemployed for longer periods of time. A stable pipeline will also increase the likelihood of sustaining a local supply chain and thereby a high share of local content.
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